UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry: Method of Victory Breakdowns

Welterweight5RMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Islam Makhachev

28-1

70"

5' 10"

Ian Machado Garry

17-1

74"

6' 3"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MakhachevTO KNOCK OUTGarry

Low

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.30

KO finish rate18%

Garry's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.09

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins3

Total UFC wins17

Garry's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses1

GarryTO KNOCK OUTMakhachev

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.37

KO finish rate30%

Makhachev's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.11

KO loss rate100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins3

Total UFC wins10

Makhachev's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses1

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MakhachevTO SUBMITGarry

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.00

Sub win rate47%

Garry's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins8

Total UFC wins17

Garry's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses1

GarryTO SUBMITMakhachev

Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.40

Sub win rate0%

Makhachev's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins10

Makhachev's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses1

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Makhachev93%

Garry73%

Makhachev wins a higher share of rounds scored.

Women's Strawweight5RMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Mackenzie Dern

16-5

63"

5' 4"

Gillian Robertson

17-8

63"

5' 5"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DernTO KNOCK OUTRobertson

Low

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.13

KO finish rate0%

Robertson's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate17%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins11

Robertson's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses6

RobertsonTO KNOCK OUTDern

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.00

KO finish rate21%

Dern's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.38

KO loss rate20%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins3

Total UFC wins14

Dern's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DernTO SUBMITRobertson

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.10

Sub win rate46%

Robertson's Risk

Sub loss rate17%

Sub Wins

Submission wins5

Total UFC wins11

Robertson's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses6

RobertsonTO SUBMITDern

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.90

Sub win rate50%

Dern's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins7

Total UFC wins14

Dern's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses5

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Dern49%

Robertson58%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Charles Johnson

19-9

70"

5' 9"

Jose Ochoa

9-2

67"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO KNOCK OUTOchoa

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.31

KO finish rate38%

Ochoa's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins3

Total UFC wins8

Ochoa's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses2

OchoaTO KNOCK OUTJohnson

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.60

KO finish rate50%

Johnson's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.20

KO loss rate14%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins2

Johnson's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses7

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO SUBMITOchoa

Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.40

Sub win rate0%

Ochoa's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins8

Ochoa's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses2

OchoaTO SUBMITJohnson

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.90

Sub win rate0%

Johnson's Risk

Sub loss rate14%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins2

Johnson's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses7

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Johnson43%

Ochoa55%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Mansur Abdul-Malik

9-1-1

80"

6' 2"

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-8

75"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

Abdul-MalikTO KNOCK OUTStoltzfus

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.41

KO finish rate67%

Stoltzfus's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.30

KO loss rate29%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins2

Total UFC wins3

Stoltzfus's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses7

StoltzfusTO KNOCK OUTAbdul-Malik

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.29

KO finish rate33%

Abdul-Malik's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.40

KO loss rate100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins3

Abdul-Malik's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses1

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

Abdul-MalikTO SUBMITStoltzfus

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate33%

Stoltzfus's Risk

Sub loss rate29%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins3

Stoltzfus's Sub Losses

Sub losses2

Total UFC losses7

StoltzfusTO SUBMITAbdul-Malik

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.10

Sub win rate33%

Abdul-Malik's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins3

Abdul-Malik's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses1

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Abdul-Malik45%

Stoltzfus48%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Edson Barboza

24-14

75"

5' 11"

Esteban Ribovics

15-3

69"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BarbozaTO KNOCK OUTRibovics

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.63

KO finish rate50%

Ribovics's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.14

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins9

Total UFC wins18

Ribovics's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses3

RibovicsTO KNOCK OUTBarboza

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.35

KO finish rate25%

Barboza's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.28

KO loss rate36%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins4

Barboza's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses5

Total UFC losses14

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BarbozaTO SUBMITRibovics

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.10

Sub win rate0%

Ribovics's Risk

Sub loss rate33%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins18

Ribovics's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses3

RibovicsTO SUBMITBarboza

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.20

Sub win rate0%

Barboza's Risk

Sub loss rate14%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins4

Barboza's Sub Losses

Sub losses2

Total UFC losses14

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Barboza47%

Ribovics56%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

WelterweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Chidi Njokuani

25-12

80"

6' 3"

Joel Alvarez

23-4

77"

6' 3"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

NjokuaniTO KNOCK OUTAlvarez

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.53

KO finish rate60%

Alvarez's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins3

Total UFC wins5

Alvarez's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses3

AlvarezTO KNOCK OUTNjokuani

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.18

KO finish rate50%

Njokuani's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.10

KO loss rate40%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins4

Total UFC wins8

Njokuani's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

NjokuaniTO SUBMITAlvarez

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.10

Sub win rate0%

Alvarez's Risk

Sub loss rate33%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins5

Alvarez's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses3

AlvarezTO SUBMITNjokuani

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.10

Sub win rate38%

Njokuani's Risk

Sub loss rate20%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins8

Njokuani's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses5

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Njokuani65%

Alvarez57%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Jalin Turner

15-9

77"

6' 3"

Kaue Fernandes

11-2

73"

5' 9"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

TurnerTO KNOCK OUTFernandes

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min1.43

KO finish rate63%

Fernandes's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins5

Total UFC wins8

Fernandes's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses1

FernandesTO KNOCK OUTTurner

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min1.57

KO finish rate67%

Turner's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.14

KO loss rate33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins2

Total UFC wins3

Turner's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses6

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

TurnerTO SUBMITFernandes

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.10

Sub win rate38%

Fernandes's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins8

Fernandes's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses1

FernandesTO SUBMITTurner

Low

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Turner's Risk

Sub loss rate17%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins3

Turner's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses6

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Turner63%

Fernandes—

Turner wins 63% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Donte Johnson

8-0

74"

5' 8"

Eric McConico

11-4-1

77"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO KNOCK OUTMcConico

High

Striking Threat *

KDs per 15 min0.00

KO finish rate0%

McConico's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight1.00

KO loss rate100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins2

McConico's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses2

McConicoTO KNOCK OUTJohnson

Low

Striking Threat *

KDs per 15 min0.00

KO finish rate0%

Johnson's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins2

Johnson's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO SUBMITMcConico

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.70

Sub win rate50%

McConico's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins2

McConico's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses2

McConicoTO SUBMITJohnson

Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Johnson's Risk *

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins2

Johnson's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Johnson—

McConico36%

McConico wins 36% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Vicente Luque

24-12-1

75"

5' 11"

Tresean Gore

7-4

75"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

LuqueTO KNOCK OUTGore

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.70

KO finish rate47%

Gore's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.57

KO loss rate50%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins8

Total UFC wins17

Gore's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses4

GoreTO KNOCK OUTLuque

Low

Striking Threat *

KDs per 15 min0.00

KO finish rate0%

Luque's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.16

KO loss rate25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins3

Luque's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses8

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

LuqueTO SUBMITGore

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.70

Sub win rate41%

Gore's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins7

Total UFC wins17

Gore's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses4

GoreTO SUBMITLuque

High

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.00

Sub win rate100%

Luque's Risk

Sub loss rate13%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins3

Luque's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses8

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Luque54%

Gore13%

Luque wins a higher share of rounds scored.

Light HeavyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Rafael Tobias

14-2

74"

6' 2"

Lucas Fernando

9-2

80"

6' 3"

Finish Risk

Fernando has no UFC fight history. Finish Risk requires at least one UFC appearance.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Tobias—

Fernando—

No round-level data for either fighter.

WelterweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Neil Magny

31-15

80"

6' 3"

Ramiz Brahimaj

13-6

72"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MagnyTO KNOCK OUTBrahimaj

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.07

KO finish rate29%

Brahimaj's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.11

KO loss rate25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins7

Total UFC wins24

Brahimaj's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses4

BrahimajTO KNOCK OUTMagny

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.20

KO finish rate20%

Magny's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.30

KO loss rate31%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins5

Magny's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses4

Total UFC losses13

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MagnyTO SUBMITBrahimaj

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate13%

Brahimaj's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins24

Brahimaj's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses4

BrahimajTO SUBMITMagny

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.60

Sub win rate80%

Magny's Risk

Sub loss rate46%

Sub Wins

Submission wins4

Total UFC wins5

Magny's Sub Losses

Sub losses6

Total UFC losses13

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Magny56%

Brahimaj33%

Magny wins a higher share of rounds scored.

WelterweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-1

74"

5' 9"

Myktybek Orolbai

16-2-1

74"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

WellsTO KNOCK OUTOrolbai

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.44

KO finish rate40%

Orolbai's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.17

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins2

Total UFC wins5

Orolbai's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses1

OrolbaiTO KNOCK OUTWells

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.49

KO finish rate20%

Wells's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.29

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins5

Wells's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses2

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

WellsTO SUBMITOrolbai

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.30

Sub win rate20%

Orolbai's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins5

Orolbai's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses1

OrolbaiTO SUBMITWells

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.50

Sub win rate40%

Wells's Risk

Sub loss rate50%

Sub Wins

Submission wins2

Total UFC wins5

Wells's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses2

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Wells81%

Orolbai85%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

Welterweight5RMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Islam Makhachev

28-1

70"

5' 10"

Ian Machado Garry

17-1

74"

6' 3"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MakhachevTO KNOCK OUTGarry

20Low

Striking Threat

KD / 150.30

KO Finish18%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.09

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO3

Total Wins17

KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses1

GarryTO KNOCK OUTMakhachev

51High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.37

KO Finish30%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.11

KO Loss100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO3

Total Wins10

KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses1

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MakhachevTO SUBMITGarry

25Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.00

Sub Win47%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions8

Total Wins17

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses1

GarryTO SUBMITMakhachev

6Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.40

Sub Win0%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins10

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses1

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Makhachev93%

Garry73%

Makhachev wins a higher share of rounds scored.

Women's Strawweight5RMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Mackenzie Dern

16-5

63"

5' 4"

Gillian Robertson

17-8

63"

5' 5"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DernTO KNOCK OUTRobertson

15Low

Striking Threat

KD / 150.13

KO Finish0%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss17%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins11

KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses6

RobertsonTO KNOCK OUTDern

31Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.00

KO Finish21%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.38

KO Loss20%

KO Wins

KO/TKO3

Total Wins14

KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DernTO SUBMITRobertson

60Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.10

Sub Win46%

Risk

Sub Loss17%

Sub Wins

Submissions5

Total Wins11

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses6

RobertsonTO SUBMITDern

22Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.90

Sub Win50%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions7

Total Wins14

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses5

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Dern49%

Robertson58%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Charles Johnson

19-9

70"

5' 9"

Jose Ochoa

9-2

67"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO KNOCK OUTOchoa

31Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.31

KO Finish38%

Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO3

Total Wins8

KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses2

OchoaTO KNOCK OUTJohnson

42High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.60

KO Finish50%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.20

KO Loss14%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins2

KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses7

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO SUBMITOchoa

9Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.40

Sub Win0%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins8

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses2

OchoaTO SUBMITJohnson

29Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.90

Sub Win0%

Risk

Sub Loss14%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins2

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses7

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Johnson43%

Ochoa55%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Mansur Abdul-Malik

9-1-1

80"

6' 2"

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-8

75"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

Abdul-MalikTO KNOCK OUTStoltzfus

48High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.41

KO Finish67%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.30

KO Loss29%

KO Wins

KO/TKO2

Total Wins3

KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses7

StoltzfusTO KNOCK OUTAbdul-Malik

52High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.29

KO Finish33%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.40

KO Loss100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins3

KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses1

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

Abdul-MalikTO SUBMITStoltzfus

56Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.30

Sub Win33%

Risk

Sub Loss29%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins3

Sub Losses

Sub Losses2

Total Losses7

StoltzfusTO SUBMITAbdul-Malik

30Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.10

Sub Win33%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins3

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses1

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Abdul-Malik45%

Stoltzfus48%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Edson Barboza

24-14

75"

5' 11"

Esteban Ribovics

15-3

69"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BarbozaTO KNOCK OUTRibovics

38Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.63

KO Finish50%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.14

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO9

Total Wins18

KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses3

RibovicsTO KNOCK OUTBarboza

48High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.35

KO Finish25%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.28

KO Loss36%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins4

KO Losses

KO/TKO5

Total Losses14

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BarbozaTO SUBMITRibovics

15Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.10

Sub Win0%

Risk

Sub Loss33%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins18

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses3

RibovicsTO SUBMITBarboza

17Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.20

Sub Win0%

Risk

Sub Loss14%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins4

Sub Losses

Sub Losses2

Total Losses14

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Barboza47%

Ribovics56%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

WelterweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Chidi Njokuani

25-12

80"

6' 3"

Joel Alvarez

23-4

77"

6' 3"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

NjokuaniTO KNOCK OUTAlvarez

47High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.53

KO Finish60%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO3

Total Wins5

KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses3

AlvarezTO KNOCK OUTNjokuani

47High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.18

KO Finish50%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.10

KO Loss40%

KO Wins

KO/TKO4

Total Wins8

KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

NjokuaniTO SUBMITAlvarez

21Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.10

Sub Win0%

Risk

Sub Loss33%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins5

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses3

AlvarezTO SUBMITNjokuani

61Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.10

Sub Win38%

Risk

Sub Loss20%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins8

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses5

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Njokuani65%

Alvarez57%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Jalin Turner

15-9

77"

6' 3"

Kaue Fernandes

11-2

73"

5' 9"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

TurnerTO KNOCK OUTFernandes

44High

Striking Threat

KD / 151.43

KO Finish63%

Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO5

Total Wins8

KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses1

FernandesTO KNOCK OUTTurner

53High

Striking Threat

KD / 151.57

KO Finish67%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.14

KO Loss33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO2

Total Wins3

KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses6

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

TurnerTO SUBMITFernandes

34Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.10

Sub Win38%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins8

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses1

FernandesTO SUBMITTurner

18Low

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Risk

Sub Loss17%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins3

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses6

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Turner63%

Fernandes—

Turner wins 63% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Donte Johnson

8-0

74"

5' 8"

Eric McConico

11-4-1

77"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO KNOCK OUTMcConico

45High

Striking Threat *

KD / 150.00

KO Finish0%

Chin

KD Absorbed1.00

KO Loss100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins2

KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses2

McConicoTO KNOCK OUTJohnson

19Low

Striking Threat *

KD / 150.00

KO Finish0%

Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins2

KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

JohnsonTO SUBMITMcConico

25Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.70

Sub Win50%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins2

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses2

McConicoTO SUBMITJohnson

10Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Risk *

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins2

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Johnson—

McConico36%

McConico wins 36% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Vicente Luque

24-12-1

75"

5' 11"

Tresean Gore

7-4

75"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

LuqueTO KNOCK OUTGore

68Elite

Striking Threat

KD / 150.70

KO Finish47%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.57

KO Loss50%

KO Wins

KO/TKO8

Total Wins17

KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses4

GoreTO KNOCK OUTLuque

23Low

Striking Threat *

KD / 150.00

KO Finish0%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.16

KO Loss25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins3

KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses8

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

LuqueTO SUBMITGore

29Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.70

Sub Win41%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions7

Total Wins17

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses4

GoreTO SUBMITLuque

49High

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.00

Sub Win100%

Risk

Sub Loss13%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins3

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses8

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Luque54%

Gore13%

Luque wins a higher share of rounds scored.

Light HeavyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Rafael Tobias

14-2

74"

6' 2"

Lucas Fernando

9-2

80"

6' 3"

Finish Risk

Fernando has no UFC fight history. Finish Risk requires at least one UFC appearance.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Tobias—

Fernando—

No round-level data for either fighter.

WelterweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Neil Magny

31-15

80"

6' 3"

Ramiz Brahimaj

13-6

72"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MagnyTO KNOCK OUTBrahimaj

33Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.07

KO Finish29%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.11

KO Loss25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO7

Total Wins24

KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses4

BrahimajTO KNOCK OUTMagny

37Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.20

KO Finish20%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.30

KO Loss31%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins5

KO Losses

KO/TKO4

Total Losses13

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

MagnyTO SUBMITBrahimaj

14Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.30

Sub Win13%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins24

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses4

BrahimajTO SUBMITMagny

86Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.60

Sub Win80%

Risk

Sub Loss46%

Sub Wins

Submissions4

Total Wins5

Sub Losses

Sub Losses6

Total Losses13

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Magny56%

Brahimaj33%

Magny wins a higher share of rounds scored.

WelterweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-1

74"

5' 9"

Myktybek Orolbai

16-2-1

74"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

WellsTO KNOCK OUTOrolbai

33Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.44

KO Finish40%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.17

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO2

Total Wins5

KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses1

OrolbaiTO KNOCK OUTWells

30Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.49

KO Finish20%

Chin

KD Absorbed0.29

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins5

KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses2

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

WellsTO SUBMITOrolbai

25Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.30

Sub Win20%

Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins5

Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses1

OrolbaiTO SUBMITWells

66Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.50

Sub Win40%

Risk

Sub Loss50%

Sub Wins

Submissions2

Total Wins5

Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses2

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Wells81%

Orolbai85%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.