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Rafael Tobias absorbs 5.8 and lands 2.8 significant strikes per minute. Striking deficit of 3.0. Among the larger negative margins in the division.

Rafael Tobias's takedown activity is a consistent part of the output. Takedown threat ranks in the upper third of the division.

All Fighters
Fighter Profile›Light Heavyweight
“Bipolar”

Rafael Tobias

14-21 UFC
Form
6'2"ht·74"reach·Orthodoxstance·23age
Last fightLDiyar Nurgozhay·U-DEC·R3·4mo ago
Fighter Context
0–1UFC·
0KO
·
0Sub
·
0Dec
·
15.0min/fight
·
19UFC min
CQ Key Stats
◈1 UFC Fight
Striking Differential
-3.04

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.233

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
Unrated

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Pre-UFC Background
Pre-UFC Record
14-1
Last fight: Mar 2026
Streak Into UFC
1consecutive W
Physical
Height
6'2"
+0.3"div avg 6'2"
Reach
74"
−1.9"div avg 75.9"
Stance
Orthodox
Finisher
Win Methods
KO / TKO
536%
Sub
643%
Decision
321%
Loss Methods
KO / TKO
1100%
Sub
00%
Decision
00%
Striking

Rafael Tobias — 2.77 significant strikes per minute, 36% striking accuracy, absorbs 5.81 strikes per minute.

Tobias
Counter Puncher
Light Heavyweight avg
Sig. Strikes / Min2.77
Str. Accuracy36%
39UFC landed/101attempted
Sig. Absorbed / min
+1.8 vs avg5.81
Str. Defense35%
KD Rate / fight0.00
KD Absorbed / fightNone on record
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
71%
Body
23%
Leg
6%
By Position
Distance73%
/
Clinch10%
/
Ground17%
Sig. Strikes by Round
Round 11 round
Round 21 round
Round 31 round
Avg. Landed101613
Avg. Absorbed362731
Avg. Net-26-11-18
Grappling

Rafael Tobias — 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes, 33% takedown accuracy, 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 100% takedown defense.

Tobias·84s ctrlAverage Control
Light Heavyweight avg
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.40
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY8.00
TD Accuracy33%
2UFC landed/8attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.60
0UFC wins/1attempted
Defense
TD Defense100%
1UFC defended/1opp. attempts
Sub Defense
Not Sub Tested
Finishing
Finish Rate
0%
div avg 64%
How They Lose
1UFC loss
Win Breakdown
Loss Breakdown
KO / TKO0 / 1
Submission0 / 1
Decision1 / 1
Loss Pattern
Lost by decision
Cards & Decisions
Recovery Rate
—
No eligible sequences on record.
Decision Margin
—
More decisions needed.
Decision Types
1UD
·
0SD
·
0MD
Career Trajectory
Win
Loss
D/NC
Elite opp (15+ wins)
Veteran opp (8+ wins)
0+11+22+34+45avg2026

1 UFC fights · hover for details

Tobias — 1 UFC Fight

Rafael Tobias — UFC fight record: 0 wins, 1 loss.

Result
Method
1 fight
L
Diyar Nurgozhay
LHW
U-DEC R3Mar '26
-55
·39 SS (39%)·94 abs·2/8 td·151s ctrl·1 sub att
Tobias — Prior Tracked Fights (1)
WJair De OliveiraDWCSSUBR1Sep 2025
All Fighters
Light Heavyweight
“Bipolar”

Rafael Tobias

14-21 UFC
Form
6'2"ht·74"reach·Orthodoxstance·23age
Last fightLDiyar Nurgozhay·U-DEC·4mo ago
Fighter Context
0–1UFC·
0KO
·
0Sub
·
0Dec
·
15.0min/fight
·
19UFC min
CQ Key Stats
Str. Differential
-3.04

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.233

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
Unrated

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Pre-UFC Background
Pre-UFC Record
14-1
Last fight: Mar 2026
Streak Into UFC
1consecutive W
Physical
Height
6'2"
+0.3"div avg 6'2"
Reach
74"
−1.9"div avg 75.9"
Stance
Orthodox
Finisher
Win Methods
KO / TKO
536%
Sub
643%
Decision
321%
Loss Methods
KO / TKO
1100%
Sub
00%
Decision
00%
Striking
Tobias
Light Heavyweight avg
Counter Puncher
Sig. Strikes / Min2.77
Str. Accuracy36%
39UFC landed/101attempted
Sig. Absorbed / Min
+1.8 vs avg5.81
Str. Defense35%
KD Rate / Fight0.00
KD Absorbed / FightNone on record
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
71%
Body
23%
Leg
6%
By Position
Dist73%
Clinch10%
Ground17%
Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)
R1
n=1
R2
n=1
R3
n=1
Landed101613
Absorbed362731
Net-26-11-18
Grappling
Tobias
Light Heavyweight avg
84s ctrlAverage Control
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.40
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY8.00
TD Accuracy33%
2UFC landed/8attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.60
0UFC wins/1attempted
Defense
TD Defense100%
1UFC defended/1opp. attempts
Finishing
Finish Rate
0%
Decision Fighter
Win Methods
0KO/TKO
0Sub
0Dec
Loss Methods
0KO/TKO
0Sub
1Dec
Cards & Decisions
Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.
—No eligible sequences.
Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.
—More decisions needed.
Decision Types
1UD
·
0SD
·
0MD
Pace & Cardio
Output
Absorbed
Diff
-2.21.04.3R1R2R3
R1n=1
R2n=1
R3n=1
Outputsig strikes / min
2.0
3.2
2.6
Absorbedsig strikes / min
7.2
5.4
6.2
Diff
-5.2
-2.2
-3.6

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Tobias — UFC Fight Log
|
L
Diyar NurgozhayLHW
U-DEC·R3·Mar '26
39 SS (39%)·94 abs·2/8 td·151s ctrl·1 sub
Tobias — Prior Tracked Fights (1)
WJair De OliveiraDWCSSUBR1Sep 2025
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X