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Rafael Tobias absorbs 6.0 and lands 2.2 significant strikes per minute. Striking deficit of 3.8. Among the larger negative margins in the division.

Rafael Tobias's takedown activity is a consistent part of the output. Takedown threat ranks in the upper third of the division.

All Fighters
Fighter Profile›Light Heavyweight
“Bipolar”

Rafael Tobias

14-32 UFC
Form
· 2L
6'2"ht·74"reach·Orthodoxstance·23age
Last fightLLucas Fernando·KO/TKO·R3·this month
Fighter Context
0–2UFC·
0KO
·
0Sub
·
0Dec
·
13.1min/fight
·
30UFC min
CQ Key Stats
◈2 UFC Fights
Striking Differential
-3.78

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.234

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
36

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Pre-UFC Background
Pre-UFC Record
14-0
Last fight: Aug 2026
Streak Into UFC
6consecutive W
Pro Fight Time
44.9minutes
Avg Opp Wins
3.8at fight time
Early Finish Rate
100%in R1–R2
Physical
Height
6'2"
+0.3"div avg 6'2"
Reach
74"
−1.9"div avg 75.9"
Stance
Orthodox
Finisher
Win Methods
KO / TKO
536%
Sub
643%
Decision
321%
Striking

Rafael Tobias — 2.17 significant strikes per minute, 32% striking accuracy, absorbs 5.95 strikes per minute.

Tobias
Counter Puncher
Body Attacker
Light Heavyweight avg
Sig. Strikes / Min2.17
Str. Accuracy32%
52UFC landed/157attempted
Sig. Absorbed / min
+2.0 vs avg5.95
Str. Defense37%
KD Rate / fight0.00
KD Absorbed / fight1.00
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
65%
Body
26%
Leg
9%
By Position
Distance75%
/
Clinch9%
/
Ground15%
Sig. Strikes by Round
Round 12 rounds
Round 22 rounds
Round 32 rounds
Avg. Landed9117
Avg. Absorbed322823
Avg. Net-23-16-16
Grappling

Rafael Tobias — 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes, 40% takedown accuracy, 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 100% takedown defense.

Tobias·74s ctrlAverage Control
Light Heavyweight avg
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.00
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY5.16
TD Accuracy40%
3UFC landed/9attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.00
0UFC wins/1attempted
Defense
TD Defense100%
1UFC defended/1opp. attempts
Sub Defense
Not Sub Tested
Finishing
Finish Rate
0%
div avg 64%
How They Lose
2UFC losses
Win Breakdown
Loss Breakdown
KO / TKO1 / 2
Submission0 / 2
Decision1 / 2
Loss Pattern
1 of 2 losses by finish in R3+
Cards & Decisions
Recovery Rate
—
No eligible sequences on record.
Decision Margin
—
More decisions needed.
Decision Types
1UD
·
0SD
·
0MD
Career Trajectory
Win
Loss
D/NC
Elite opp (15+ wins)
Veteran opp (8+ wins)
0+11+22+34+45avg2026

2 UFC fights · hover for details

Tobias — 2 UFC Fights

Rafael Tobias — UFC fight record: 0 wins, 2 losses.

Result
Method
2 fights
L
Lucas Fernando
LHW
KO/TKO R3 · 1:10Aug '26
-56
·13 SS (23%)·69 abs·1/1 td·55s ctrl·2 kd taken
L
Diyar Nurgozhay
LHW
U-DEC R3Mar '26
-55
·39 SS (39%)·94 abs·2/8 td·151s ctrl·1 sub att
Tobias — Prior Tracked Fights (1)
WJair De OliveiraDWCSSUBR1Sep 2025
Tobias — Pro Fight Log (14)
WWellington Lopes12-4KO/TKO R2Apr 2025
WMarcelo Alejandro Nuñez Sparling10-5KO/TKO R1Aug 2024
WWillyanedson Paiva8-5DECApr 2024
WGuilherme Cunha0-0SUB R1Apr 2024
WLuis Oliveira4-3SUB R1Dec 2023
All Fighters
Light Heavyweight
“Bipolar”

Rafael Tobias

14-32 UFC
Form
2L
6'2"ht·74"reach·Orthodoxstance·23age
Last fightLLucas Fernando·KO/TKO·this month
Fighter Context
0–2UFC·
0KO
·
0Sub
·
0Dec
·
13.1min/fight
·
30UFC min
CQ Key Stats
Str. Differential
-3.78

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.234

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
36

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Pre-UFC Background
Pre-UFC Record
14-0
Last fight: Aug 2026
Streak Into UFC
6consecutive W
Pro Fight Time
44.9minutes
Avg Opp Wins
3.8at fight time
Early Finish Rate
100%in R1–R2
Physical
Height
6'2"
+0.3"div avg 6'2"
Reach
74"
−1.9"div avg 75.9"
Stance
Orthodox
Finisher
Win Methods
KO / TKO
536%
Sub
643%
Decision
321%
Striking
Tobias
Light Heavyweight avg
Counter PuncherBody Attacker
Sig. Strikes / Min2.17
Str. Accuracy32%
52UFC landed/157attempted
Sig. Absorbed / Min
+2.0 vs avg5.95
Str. Defense37%
KD Rate / Fight0.00
KD Absorbed / Fight1.00
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
65%
Body
26%
Leg
9%
By Position
Dist75%
Clinch9%
Ground15%
Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)
R1
n=2
R2
n=2
R3
n=2
Landed9117
Absorbed322823
Net-23-16-16
Grappling
Tobias
Light Heavyweight avg
74s ctrlAverage Control
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.00
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY5.16
TD Accuracy40%
3UFC landed/9attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.00
0UFC wins/1attempted
Defense
TD Defense100%
1UFC defended/1opp. attempts
Finishing
Finish Rate
0%
Decision Fighter
Win Methods
0KO/TKO
0Sub
0Dec
Loss Methods
1KO/TKO
0Sub
1Dec
Finish Round Distribution
R1
R2
R3
KO (L)
Cards & Decisions
Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.
—No eligible sequences.
Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.
—More decisions needed.
Decision Types
1UD
·
0SD
·
0MD
Pace & Cardio
Output
Absorbed
Diff
-2.11.14.4R1R2R3
R1n=2
R2n=2
R3n=2
Outputsig strikes / min
1.7
2.2
2.1
Absorbedsig strikes / min
6.3
5.5
7.3
Diff
-4.6
-3.3
-5.2

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Tobias — UFC Fight Log
|
L
Lucas FernandoLHW
KO/TKO·R3·Aug '26
13 SS (23%)·69 abs·1/1 td·55s ctrl·2 kd taken
L
Diyar NurgozhayLHW
U-DEC·R3·Mar '26
39 SS (39%)·94 abs·2/8 td·151s ctrl·1 sub
Tobias — Prior Tracked Fights (1)
WJair De OliveiraDWCSSUBR1Sep 2025
Tobias — Pro Fight Log (14)
WWellington Lopes12-4KO/TKO R2Apr 2025
WMarcelo Alejandro Nuñez Sparling10-5KO/TKO R1Aug 2024
WWillyanedson Paiva8-5DECApr 2024
WGuilherme Cunha0-0SUB R1Apr 2024
WLuis Oliveira4-3SUB R1Dec 2023
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CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X