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Matchup Analysis·Welterweight
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry6 / 12
←Barboza vs RibovicsTurner vs Fernandes→
Red Corner

Chidi Njokuani

“Bang Bang”
25-12(1 NC)10 UFCLast6mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
6'3"ht·80"+3"reach·Orthodoxstance·37age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Joel Alvarez

“El Fenomeno”
23-411 UFCLast3mo ago
Pressure Fighter
High Variance
Early Chaos
6'3"ht·77"reach·Orthodoxstance·334yrage
CQ
EdgesElevated Finish Risk
Njokuani · KO Vulnerability
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.AlvarezDominant
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
1 signal
WC TRANSITION

Alvarez is in their 3rd fight into a move up from Lightweight. Record at Welterweight: 1-1.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Njokuani
+1.84
Alvarez
+1.50
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
No edge
Njokuani
0.00
Alvarez
0.04
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Njokuani
65%
Alvarez
57%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Njokuani
56
Average
Alvarez
80
Durable
2 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.10KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Njokuani5.16SLpM
+
SLpM4.53Alvarez
9.7
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Njokuani
NjokuaniOutput Builds Late+26% R1→R3
AlvarezOutput Holds Steady-14% R1→R3
Finish History
Njokuani
KO/TKO ×3
Finish rate (wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped rate (losses)
60%
3/5
Alvarez
KO/TKO ×4Sub ×3
Finish rate (wins)
88%
7/8
Stopped rate (losses)
67%
2/3
Edge & Exposure
Njokuani
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Alvarez
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Opposition Quality
Njokuani5–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–4
Record (6)
+0.5
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Alvarez8–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–3
Record (9)
+2.2
Str Diff/Min
83%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
NjokuaniWelterweightAlvarez
90th
Striking Differential
88th
5th
Grappling Threat
15th
79th
Round Win Rate
60th
78th
TD Defense
10th
32nd
Durability
63rd
48th
Finishing Rate
74th
Recent Form
Njokuani
Stat
Alvarez
7.295.16 career
↑2.13
SLpMOutput
↑0.34
4.874.53 career
5.753.32 career
⚠↑2.43
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.82
2.213.03 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.48
0.621.10 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Njokuani40% distance
Finish 60%Decision 40%
Alvarez18% distance
Finish 82%Decision 18%
Njokuani 10 UFC fights·Alvarez 11 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Njokuani
8.4min
Alvarez
7.7min
Combined Distance Rate
29%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
NjokuaniTO KNOCK OUTAlvarez
47
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins5
Alvarez's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses3
AlvarezTO KNOCK OUTNjokuani
47
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins4
Total UFC wins8
Njokuani's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses5
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
NjokuaniTO SUBMITAlvarez
21
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins5
Alvarez's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses3
AlvarezTO SUBMITNjokuani
61
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins3
Total UFC wins8
Njokuani's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses5
NjokuaniWin MethodAlvarez
60%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
38%
40%
Decision
13%
5 UFC wins · 3 KO · 2 Dec8 UFC wins · 4 KO · 3 Sub · 1 Dec
Njokuani
Loss Method
Alvarez
40%
KO / TKO
33%
20%
Submission
33%
40%
Decision
33%
5 UFC losses · 2 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec3 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 1 Dec
Njokuani6 stoppages · 5 KO · 1 Sub
R1
4
R2
2
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubJake MatthewsR1 · 1:09
WKOElizeu Zaleski dos SantosR2 · 2:19
LKOMichal OleksiejczukR1 · 4:16
LKOGregory RodriguesR2 · 1:27
WKODusko TodorovicR1 · 4:48
Alvarez9 stoppages · 5 KO · 4 Sub
R1
4
R2
4
R3
1
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubYaroslav AmosovR2 · 1:13
WKODrakkar KloseR1 · 2:48
WKOElves BrenerR3 · 3:36
WSubMarc DiakieseR2 · 4:26
LKOArman TsarukyanR2 · 1:57
Historical Context
Njokuani — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·10 fights
L
Carlos LealWW
U-DEC
R3
Feb '26
120 SS (59%)·115 abs·0/2 td·6s ctrl
L
Jake MatthewsVeteranWW
SUB
R11:09
Jul '25
5 SS (50%)·3 abs·1 td taken
W
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosVeteranWW
KO/TKO
R22:19
Mar '25
46 SS (53%)·17 abs·1 td taken·10s ctrl·1 kd
W
Jared GoodenWW
U-DEC
R3
Oct '24
105 SS (71%)·20 abs·2 td taken·556s ctrl
W
Rhys McKeeWW
S-DEC
R3
Mar '24
64 SS (65%)·30 abs·0/2 td·53s ctrl
L
Michal OleksiejczukMW
KO/TKO
R14:16
Aug '23
29 SS (51%)·44 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken·9s ctrl
View full fight log →
Alvarez — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Yaroslav AmosovWW
SUB
R21:13
May '26
8 SS (36%)·16 abs·6 td taken
W
Vicente LuqueEliteWW
U-DEC
R3
Oct '25
89 SS (60%)·30 abs·1/1 td·390s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Drakkar KloseVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R12:48
Dec '24
20 SS (83%)·7 abs·1 td taken
W
Elves BrenerLW
KO/TKO
R33:36
Aug '24
95 SS (67%)·45 abs·0/1 td·51s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Marc DiakieseLW
SUB
R24:26
Jul '23
42 SS (56%)·20 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·86s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Arman TsarukyanLW
KO/TKO
R21:57
Feb '22
7 SS (70%)·36 abs·2 td taken
View full fight log →
Matchup·WW·3R
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
6/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Chidi Njokuani

“Bang Bang”
25-12(1 NC)10 UFC6mo ago
6'3"ht80"+3"reachOrthodox37 yrs
VS·WW·3R
Blue Corner

Joel Alvarez

“El Fenomeno”
23-411 UFC3mo ago
6'3"ht77"reachOrthodox33 yrs
CQ
Edges
Elevated Finish RiskNjokuani · KO Vulnerability
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingNo edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.AlvarezDominant
Signals
1
WC TRANSITIONAlvarez is in their 3rd fight into a move up from Lightweight. Record at Welterweight: 1-1.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Njokuani+1.84
Alvarez+1.50
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
No edge
Njokuani0.00
Alvarez0.04
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Njokuani65%
Alvarez57%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Njokuani
56Average
Alvarez
80Durable
Stats
Njokuani
Alvarez
Striking
5.16SS Landed / min4.53
61%Str Acc54%
3.32SS Absorbed / min3.03
57%Str Def53%
0.30KD / fight0.09
Grappling
0.00TD / min0.18
75%TD Def46%
0.10Sub Att · /15m1.10
50%Sub Def0%
Finish History
Njokuani
KO/TKO ×3
Finish Rate (Wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped Rate (Losses)
60%
3/5
Alvarez
KO/TKO ×4Sub ×3
Finish Rate (Wins)
88%
7/8
Stopped Rate (Losses)
67%
2/3
Njokuani40% distance
Finish 60%Decision 40%
Alvarez18% distance
Finish 82%Decision 18%
Njokuani 10 UFC fights·Alvarez 11 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Njokuani
8.4min
Alvarez
7.7min
Combined Distance Rate
29%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
NjokuaniWinAlvarez
60%
KO
50%
0%
Sub
38%
40%
Dec
13%
5 wins3 KO2 Dec
1 Dec3 Sub4 KO8 wins
NjokuaniLossAlvarez
40%
KO
33%
20%
Sub
33%
40%
Dec
33%
5 losses2 KO1 Sub2 Dec
1 Dec1 Sub1 KO3 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Njokuani
to knock out
Alvarez
47High
Alvarez
to knock out
Njokuani
47High
Njokuani
to submit
Alvarez
21Low
Alvarez
to submit
Njokuani
61Elite
Recent Form
Njokuani
Stat
Alvarez
7.29
5.16 career
↑2.13
SLpMOutput
↑0.34
4.87
4.53 career
5.75
3.32 career
↑2.43
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.82
2.21
3.03 career
—
SubAtt/15m
↓0.48
0.62
1.10 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Njokuani—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·10 fights
L
Carlos LealWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Feb '26
120 SS (59%)·115 abs·0/2 td·6s ctrl
L
Jake MatthewsVeteranWW Bout
SUB · R1 · 1:09 · Jul '25
5 SS (50%)·3 abs·1 td taken
W
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosVeteranWW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 2:19 · Mar '25
46 SS (53%)·17 abs·1 td taken·10s ctrl·1 kd
W
Jared GoodenWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '24
105 SS (71%)·20 abs·2 td taken·556s ctrl
W
Rhys McKeeWW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Mar '24
64 SS (65%)·30 abs·0/2 td·53s ctrl
L
Michal OleksiejczukMW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:16 · Aug '23
29 SS (51%)·44 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken·9s ctrl
View full fight log →
Alvarez—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Yaroslav AmosovWW Bout
SUB · R2 · 1:13 · May '26
8 SS (36%)·16 abs·6 td taken
W
Vicente LuqueEliteWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '25
89 SS (60%)·30 abs·1/1 td·390s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Drakkar KloseVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:48 · Dec '24
20 SS (83%)·7 abs·1 td taken
W
Elves BrenerLW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 3:36 · Aug '24
95 SS (67%)·45 abs·0/1 td·51s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Marc DiakieseLW Bout
SUB · R2 · 4:26 · Jul '23
42 SS (56%)·20 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·86s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Arman TsarukyanLW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:57 · Feb '22
7 SS (70%)·36 abs·2 td taken
View full fight log →
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CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X