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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry7 / 12
←Njokuani vs AlvarezJohnson vs McConico→
Red Corner

Jalin Turner

“The Tarantula”
15-914 UFCLast8mo ago
Pressure Fighter
High Variance
Early Chaos
6'3"+6"ht·77"+4"reach·Southpawstance·31age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Kaue Fernandes

11-24 UFCLast11mo ago
Kickboxer
5'9"ht·73"reach·Orthodoxstance·31age
CQ
EdgesElevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingFernandesClear edge
DecisionNo data
GrapplingFernandesSlight edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.TurnerSlight edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
1 signal
SOUTHPAW

Turner is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Turner natural angle advantages at range.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Fernandes
Turner
+1.25
Fernandes
+2.86
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Fernandes
Turner
0.18
Fernandes
0.29
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No data
Turner
63%
Fernandes
Too few rounds
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Turner
67
Average
Fernandes
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Extreme
Turner5.79SLpM
+
SLpM4.28Fernandes
10.1
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Fernandes
TurnerOutput Drops Late-37% R1→R3
FernandesEarly Finisher
Finish History
Turner
KO/TKO ×5Sub ×3
Finish rate (wins)
100%
8/8
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
3/6
Fernandes
KO/TKO ×2
Finish rate (wins)
67%
2/3
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/1
Edge & Exposure
Turner
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Fernandes
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Opposition Quality
Turner8–6UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–5
Record (10)
+1.9
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+29% step-up
2–2
Record (4)
+3.7
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Fernandes3–1UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks
TurnerLightweightFernandes
85th
Striking Differential
98th
50th
Grappling Threat
83rd
77th
Round Win Rate
—
72nd
TD Defense
77th
47th
Durability
80th
92nd
Finishing Rate
68th

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Turner
Stat
Fernandes
4.415.79 career
⚠↓1.38
SLpMOutput
↑1.78
6.064.28 career
3.984.54 career
↓0.56
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.35
1.771.42 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
0.001.10 career
⚠↓1.10
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Turner21% distance
Finish 79%Decision 21%
Fernandes50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Turner 14 UFC fights·Fernandes 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Turner
6.8min
Fernandes
9.5min
Combined Distance Rate
28%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
TurnerTO KNOCK OUTFernandes
44
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins5
Total UFC wins8
Fernandes's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses1
FernandesTO KNOCK OUTTurner
53
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins3
Turner's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses6
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
TurnerTO SUBMITFernandes
34
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins3
Total UFC wins8
Fernandes's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses1
FernandesTO SUBMITTurner
18
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins3
Turner's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses6
TurnerWin MethodFernandes
63%
KO / TKO
67%
38%
Submission
0%
0%
Decision
33%
8 UFC wins · 5 KO · 3 Sub3 UFC wins · 2 KO · 1 Dec
Turner
Loss Method
Fernandes
33%
KO / TKO
0%
17%
Submission
0%
50%
Decision
100%
6 UFC losses · 2 KO · 1 Sub · 3 Dec1 UFC loss · 1 Dec
Turner11 stoppages · 7 KO · 4 Sub
R1
7
R2
4
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKOEdson BarbozaR1 · 2:24
LSubIgnacio BahamondesR1 · 2:29
LKORenato MoicanoR2 · 4:11
WKOKing GreenR1 · 2:49
WSubBrad RiddellR1 · 0:45
Fernandes2 stoppages · 2 KO
R1
2
R2
0
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
All stoppages
WKOHarry HardwickR1 · 3:21
WKOMohammad YahyaR1 · 4:45
Historical Context
Turner — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·14 fights
W
Edson BarbozaEliteLW
KO/TKO
R12:24
Dec '25
39 SS (59%)·10 abs·38s ctrl·2 kd
L
Ignacio BahamondesLW
SUB
R12:29
Mar '25
7 SS (35%)·10 abs·103s ctrl
L
Renato MoicanoVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R24:11
Apr '24
16 SS (40%)·36 abs·2 td taken·1 kd
W
King GreenVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R12:49
Dec '23
33 SS (55%)·15 abs·12s ctrl·1 kd
L
Dan HookerVeteranLW
S-DEC
R3
Jul '23
100 SS (56%)·125 abs·1/3 td·18s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Mateusz GamrotLW
S-DEC
R3
Mar '23
40 SS (41%)·29 abs·0/1 td·4 td taken·32s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Fernandes — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Harry HardwickLW
KO/TKO
R13:21
Sep '25
24 SS (60%)·8 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd
W
Guram KutateladzeLW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '25
79 SS (53%)·29 abs·2/2 td·103s ctrl·2 kd
W
Mohammad YahyaLW
KO/TKO
R14:45
Aug '24
37 SS (59%)·4 abs·9s ctrl·1 kd
L
Marc DiakieseLW
S-DEC
R3
Nov '23
23 SS (55%)·13 abs·1/1 td·3 td taken·87s ctrl
View full fight log →
Matchup·LW·3R
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
7/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Jalin Turner

“The Tarantula”
15-914 UFC8mo ago
6'3"+6"ht77"+4"reachSouthpaw31 yrs
VS·LW·3R
Blue Corner

Kaue Fernandes

11-24 UFC11mo ago
5'9"ht73"reachOrthodox31 yrs
CQ
Edges
Elevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingFernandesClear edge
DecisionNo data
GrapplingFernandesSlight edge
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.TurnerSlight edge
Signals
1
SOUTHPAWTurner is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Fernandes
Turner+1.25
Fernandes+2.86
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Fernandes
Turner0.18
Fernandes0.29
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No data
Turner63%
FernandesToo few rounds
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Turner
67Average
Fernandes
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Stats
Turner
Fernandes
Striking
5.79SS Landed / min4.28
48%Str Acc55%
4.54SS Absorbed / min1.42
41%Str Def62%
0.64KD / fight1.00
Grappling
0.75TD / min1.18
75%TD Def76%
1.10Sub Att · /15m0.00
75%Sub Def—
Finish History
Turner
KO/TKO ×5Sub ×3
Finish Rate (Wins)
100%
8/8
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
3/6
Fernandes
KO/TKO ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
67%
2/3
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/1
Turner21% distance
Finish 79%Decision 21%
Fernandes50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Turner 14 UFC fights·Fernandes 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Turner
6.8min
Fernandes
9.5min
Combined Distance Rate
28%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
TurnerWinFernandes
63%
KO
67%
38%
Sub
0%
0%
Dec
33%
8 wins5 KO3 Sub
1 Dec2 KO3 wins
TurnerLossFernandes
33%
KO
0%
17%
Sub
0%
50%
Dec
100%
6 losses2 KO1 Sub3 Dec
1 Dec1 loss
CQ Finish Risk
Turner
to knock out
Fernandes
44High
Fernandes
to knock out
Turner
53High
Turner
to submit
Fernandes
34Elevated
Fernandes
to submit
Turner
18Low
Recent Form
Turner
Stat
Fernandes
4.41
5.79 career
↓1.38
SLpMOutput
↑1.78
6.06
4.28 career
3.98
4.54 career
↓0.56
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.35
1.77
1.42 career
0.00
1.10 career
↓1.10
SubAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Turner—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·14 fights
W
Edson BarbozaEliteLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:24 · Dec '25
39 SS (59%)·10 abs·38s ctrl·2 kd
L
Ignacio BahamondesLW Bout
SUB · R1 · 2:29 · Mar '25
7 SS (35%)·10 abs·103s ctrl
L
Renato MoicanoVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:11 · Apr '24
16 SS (40%)·36 abs·2 td taken·1 kd
W
King GreenVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:49 · Dec '23
33 SS (55%)·15 abs·12s ctrl·1 kd
L
Dan HookerVeteranLW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Jul '23
100 SS (56%)·125 abs·1/3 td·18s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Mateusz GamrotLW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Mar '23
40 SS (41%)·29 abs·0/1 td·4 td taken·32s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Fernandes—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Harry HardwickLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:21 · Sep '25
24 SS (60%)·8 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd
W
Guram KutateladzeLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25
79 SS (53%)·29 abs·2/2 td·103s ctrl·2 kd
W
Mohammad YahyaLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:45 · Aug '24
37 SS (59%)·4 abs·9s ctrl·1 kd
L
Marc DiakieseLW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Nov '23
23 SS (55%)·13 abs·1/1 td·3 td taken·87s ctrl
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X