Matchup Analysis·Welterweight
Red Corner
28-118 UFCLast9mo ago
Wrestler
Hot Streak
8× Title
8× 5R
Moderate Wear
5'10"ht·70"reach·Southpawstance·34age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
5R
Blue Corner
Ian Machado Garry
“The Future”
17-111 UFCLast9mo ago
Kickboxer
2× Title
2× 5R
Goes Long
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
6'3"+5"ht·74"+4"reach·Orthodoxstance·286yrage
Signals2 signals
AGE GAP
Makhachev is 6 years older than Garry.
WC TRANSITION
Makhachev is in their 2nd fight into a move up from Lightweight. Record at Welterweight: 1-0.
CQ Core Edges
Makhachev
+1.00
Garry
+1.92
Makhachev
0.62
Garry
0.08
Makhachev
93%
Garry
73%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Makhachev
89
IroncladGarry
97
Ironclad1 KO lossKO losses0 KO losses
0.11KD / fight0.09
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Makhachev2.45SLpM
+SLpM4.78Garry
7.2
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
MakhachevOutput Holds Steady+10% R1→R3
GarryOutput Builds Late+71% R1→R3
Finish History
Makhachev
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×8
Finish rate (wins)
65%
11/17
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
1/1
Garry
KO/TKO ×3
Finish rate (wins)
30%
3/10
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/1
Edge & Exposure
Makhachev
EdgeGrappling Dominant
Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.
EdgeStriking Edge
Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.
Garry
EdgeStriking Dominant
Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
Opposition Quality
Makhachev17–1UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
15–1
Record (16)
+1.1
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)+14% step-up
11–0
Record (11)
+1.1
Str Diff/Min
73%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
3–0
Record (3)
+1.0
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Garry10–1UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
8–1
Record (9)
+2.4
Str Diff/Min
25%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)+16% step-up
4–0
Record (4)
+3.0
Str Diff/Min
25%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
2–0
Record (2)
+2.7
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
MakhachevWelterweightGarry
75th
Striking Differential
91st92nd
Grappling Threat
39th99th
Round Win Rate
86th96th
TD Defense
82nd87th
Durability
98th65th
Finishing Rate
6thRecent Form
Makhachev
Stat
Garry
2.392.45 career
↓0.06
SLpMOutput
⚠↓1.09
3.694.78 career
1.951.45 career
↑0.50
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.46
2.402.86 career
6.375.52 career
↑0.85
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑2.35
5.312.96 career
0.871.00 career
↓0.13
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Makhachev33% distance
Finish 67%Decision 33%
Garry73% distance
Finish 27%Decision 73%
Makhachev 18 UFC fights·Garry 11 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Makhachev
11.0min
Garry
14.8min
Combined Distance Rate
48%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
MakhachevTO KNOCK OUTGarry
20
Low
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins17
Garry's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses1
GarryTO KNOCK OUTMakhachev
51
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins10
Makhachev's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses1
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
MakhachevTO SUBMITGarry
25
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins8
Total UFC wins17
Garry's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses1
GarryTO SUBMITMakhachev
6
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins10
Makhachev's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses1
MakhachevWin MethodGarry
18%
KO / TKO
30%
47%
Submission
0%
35%
Decision
70%
17 UFC wins · 3 KO · 8 Sub · 6 Dec10 UFC wins · 3 KO · 7 Dec
Makhachev
Loss Method
Garry100%
KO / TKO
0%
0%
Submission
0%
0%
Decision
100%
1 UFC loss · 1 KO1 UFC loss · 1 Dec
Makhachev12 stoppages · 4 KO · 8 Sub
R1
7
R2
2
R3
1
R4
1
R5
1
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
All stoppages
WSubRenato MoicanoR1 · 4:05
WSubDustin PoirierR5 · 2:42
WKOAlexander VolkanovskiR1 · 3:06
WSubCharles OliveiraR2 · 3:16
WKOKing GreenR1 · 3:23
Garry3 stoppages · 3 KO
R1
2
R20
R3
1
R40
R50
KO Win
All stoppages
WKODaniel RodriguezR1 · 2:57
WKOSong KenanR3 · 4:22
WKOJordan WilliamsR1 · 4:59
Historical Context
Makhachev — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
30 SS (53%)·18 abs·4/4 td·1150s ctrl
6 SS (32%)·9 abs·1/2 td·87s ctrl·1 sub att
88 SS (56%)·74 abs·5/16 td·623s ctrl·2 sub att
24 SS (83%)·4 abs·0/1 td·19s ctrl·1 kd
57 SS (60%)·70 abs·4/9 td·457s ctrl·1 kd taken
30 SS (73%)·19 abs·2/3 td·305s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
Garry — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
72 SS (51%)·56 abs·0/2 td·39s ctrl
126 SS (52%)·63 abs·4/19 td·189s ctrl
42 SS (50%)·37 abs·1/2 td·2 td taken·152s ctrl·2 sub att
19 SS (49%)·21 abs·2/5 td·449s ctrl·2 sub att
67 SS (50%)·46 abs·12s ctrl
91 SS (61%)·27 abs·2/2 td·152s ctrl