CageQuantBETA
EventsFightersDivisionsGuide
Sign Up
CageQuantBETA
Matchup Analysis·Women's Strawweight
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry2 / 12
←Makhachev vs GarryJohnson vs Ochoa→
Red Corner

Mackenzie Dern

16-516 UFCLast10mo ago
Balanced
5× Title
5× 5R
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
5'4"ht·63"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
VS
Women's Strawweight115 lbs
5R
Blue Corner

Gillian Robertson

“The Savage”
17-820 UFCLast5mo ago
Wrestler
Hot Streak
High Variance
Moderate Wear
5'5"ht·63"reach·Orthodoxstance·31age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingRobertsonDominant
KO Adv.RobertsonClear edge
Sub Adv.DernDominant
DurabilityNo edge
CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Dern
-0.46
Robertson
-0.15
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Robertson
Dern
0.58
Robertson
1.74
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Dern
49%
Robertson
58%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Dern
87
Durable
Robertson
94
Ironclad
1 KO lossKO losses1 KO loss
0.38KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Dern3.47SLpM
+
SLpM2.71Robertson
6.2
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
DernOutput Holds Steady0% R1→R3
RobertsonOutput Holds Steady+17% R1→R3
Finish History
Dern
Sub ×5
Finish rate (wins)
45%
5/11
Stopped rate (losses)
20%
1/5
Robertson
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×7
Finish rate (wins)
71%
10/14
Stopped rate (losses)
33%
2/6
Edge & Exposure
Dern
ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Robertson
EdgeHigh Finisher

Finishes the majority of opponents. Gets the stoppage when ahead on the scorecards.

EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Opposition Quality
Dern11–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–5
Record (11)
-0.8
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+62% step-up
3–1
Record (4)
+0.2
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Robertson14–6UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–6
Record (11)
-0.8
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
DernWomen's StrawweightRobertson
32nd
Striking Differential
46th
23rd
Grappling Threat
81st
46th
Round Win Rate
64th
15th
TD Defense
18th
67th
Durability
83rd
56th
Finishing Rate
83rd
Recent Form
Dern
Stat
Robertson
3.953.47 career
↑0.48
SLpMOutput
↓0.55
2.162.71 career
3.463.93 career
↓0.47
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.49
2.372.86 career
4.375.03 career
↓0.66
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑4.15
10.916.76 career
0.271.10 career
↓0.83
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.90
0.000.90 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Dern63% distance
Finish 37%Decision 63%
Robertson40% distance
Finish 60%Decision 40%
Dern 16 UFC fights·Robertson 20 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Dern
14.2min
Robertson
10.3min
Combined Distance Rate
50%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
DernTO KNOCK OUTRobertson
15
Low
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins0
Total UFC wins11
Robertson's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses6
RobertsonTO KNOCK OUTDern
31
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins14
Dern's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses5
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
DernTO SUBMITRobertson
60
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins5
Total UFC wins11
Robertson's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses6
RobertsonTO SUBMITDern
22
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins7
Total UFC wins14
Dern's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses5
DernWin MethodRobertson
0%
KO / TKO
21%
45%
Submission
50%
55%
Decision
29%
11 UFC wins · 5 Sub · 6 Dec14 UFC wins · 3 KO · 7 Sub · 4 Dec
Dern
Loss Method
Robertson
20%
KO / TKO
17%
0%
Submission
17%
80%
Decision
67%
5 UFC losses · 1 KO · 4 Dec6 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 4 Dec
Dern6 stoppages · 1 KO · 5 Sub
R1
4
R2
1
R3
1
R1R2R3
KO Loss
Sub Win
All stoppages
WSubAmanda RibasR3 · 4:56
LKOJessica AndradeR2 · 3:15
WSubNina NunesR1 · 4:48
WSubRanda MarkosR1 · 3:44
WSubHannah CifersR1 · 2:36
Robertson12 stoppages · 4 KO · 8 Sub
R1
4
R2
7
R3
1
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKOMarina RodriguezR2 · 2:07
WKOPolyana VianaR2 · 3:12
WSubPiera RodriguezR2 · 4:21
WSubMariya AgapovaR2 · 2:19
WSubPriscila CachoeiraR1 · 4:59
Historical Context
Dern — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Virna JandirobaVeteranTITLEW.SW
U-DEC
R5
Oct '25
118 SS (51%)·106 abs·2/8 td·9 td taken·225s ctrl
W
Amanda RibasTITLEW.SW
SUB
R34:56
Jan '25
27 SS (59%)·17 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·274s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Loopy GodinezW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Aug '24
72 SS (35%)·67 abs·2/5 td·2 td taken·165s ctrl
L
Amanda LemosW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Feb '24
21 SS (39%)·41 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·360s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Jessica AndradeEliteW.SW
KO/TKO
R23:15
Nov '23
49 SS (43%)·53 abs·0/4 td·4 kd taken
W
Angela HillVeteranTITLEW.SW
U-DEC
R5
May '23
126 SS (60%)·66 abs·3/9 td·792s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Robertson — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Amanda LemosVeteranW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '26
12 SS (46%)·42 abs·3/7 td·1 td taken·557s ctrl
W
Marina RodriguezVeteranW.SW
KO/TKO
R22:07
May '25
16 SS (39%)·4 abs·2/3 td·321s ctrl
W
Luana PinheiroW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '24
52 SS (48%)·42 abs·5/17 td·493s ctrl
W
Michelle Waterson-GomezW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Jun '24
77 SS (73%)·21 abs·2/6 td·1 td taken·754s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Polyana VianaW.SW
KO/TKO
R23:12
Jan '24
23 SS (59%)·12 abs·2/2 td·366s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Tabatha RicciW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Jun '23
76 SS (35%)·100 abs·1/4 td·3 td taken·26s ctrl
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Marina RodriguezSplit result
L
Dern
UD·R5·2021
W
Robertson
KO/TKO·R2·2025
Amanda LemosSplit result
L
Dern
UD·R3·2024
W
Robertson
UD·R3·2026
Matchup·W. SW·5R
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Mackenzie Dern

16-516 UFC10mo ago
5'4"ht63"reachOrthodox33 yrs
VS·W. SW·5R
Blue Corner

Gillian Robertson

“The Savage”
17-820 UFC5mo ago
5'5"ht63"reachOrthodox31 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingRobertsonDominant
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.RobertsonClear edge
Sub Adv.DernDominant
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Dern-0.46
Robertson-0.15
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Robertson
Dern0.58
Robertson1.74
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Dern49%
Robertson58%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Dern
87Durable
Robertson
94Ironclad
Stats
Dern
Robertson
Striking
3.47SS Landed / min2.71
41%Str Acc48%
3.93SS Absorbed / min2.86
51%Str Def56%
0.13KD / fight0.00
Grappling
0.93TD / min2.76
37%TD Def38%
1.10Sub Att · /15m0.90
100%Sub Def80%
Finish History
Dern
Sub ×5
Finish Rate (Wins)
45%
5/11
Stopped Rate (Losses)
20%
1/5
Robertson
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×7
Finish Rate (Wins)
71%
10/14
Stopped Rate (Losses)
33%
2/6
Dern63% distance
Finish 37%Decision 63%
Robertson40% distance
Finish 60%Decision 40%
Dern 16 UFC fights·Robertson 20 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Dern
14.2min
Robertson
10.3min
Combined Distance Rate
50%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
DernWinRobertson
0%
KO
21%
45%
Sub
50%
55%
Dec
29%
11 wins5 Sub6 Dec
4 Dec7 Sub3 KO14 wins
DernLossRobertson
20%
KO
17%
0%
Sub
17%
80%
Dec
67%
5 losses1 KO4 Dec
4 Dec1 Sub1 KO6 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Dern
to knock out
Robertson
15Low
Robertson
to knock out
Dern
31Elevated
Dern
to submit
Robertson
60Elite
Robertson
to submit
Dern
22Low
Recent Form
Dern
Stat
Robertson
3.95
3.47 career
↑0.48
SLpMOutput
↓0.55
2.16
2.71 career
3.46
3.93 career
↓0.47
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.49
2.37
2.86 career
4.37
5.03 career
↓0.66
TD AttAtt/15m
↑4.15
10.91
6.76 career
0.27
1.10 career
↓0.83
SubAtt/15m
↓0.90
0.00
0.90 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Dern—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Virna JandirobaVeteranTITLEW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Oct '25
118 SS (51%)·106 abs·2/8 td·9 td taken·225s ctrl
W
Amanda RibasTITLEW. SW Bout
SUB · R3 · 4:56 · Jan '25
27 SS (59%)·17 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·274s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Loopy GodinezW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Aug '24
72 SS (35%)·67 abs·2/5 td·2 td taken·165s ctrl
L
Amanda LemosW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Feb '24
21 SS (39%)·41 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·360s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Jessica AndradeEliteW. SW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 3:15 · Nov '23
49 SS (43%)·53 abs·0/4 td·4 kd taken
W
Angela HillVeteranTITLEW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · May '23
126 SS (60%)·66 abs·3/9 td·792s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Robertson—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Amanda LemosVeteranW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '26
12 SS (46%)·42 abs·3/7 td·1 td taken·557s ctrl
W
Marina RodriguezVeteranW. SW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 2:07 · May '25
16 SS (39%)·4 abs·2/3 td·321s ctrl
W
Luana PinheiroW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '24
52 SS (48%)·42 abs·5/17 td·493s ctrl
W
Michelle Waterson-GomezW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
77 SS (73%)·21 abs·2/6 td·1 td taken·754s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Polyana VianaW. SW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 3:12 · Jan '24
23 SS (59%)·12 abs·2/2 td·366s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Tabatha RicciW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '23
76 SS (35%)·100 abs·1/4 td·3 td taken·26s ctrl
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Marina RodriguezSplit result
L
Dern
UD·R5·2021
W
Robertson
KO/TKO·R2·2025
Amanda LemosSplit result
L
Dern
UD·R3·2024
W
Robertson
UD·R3·2026
GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X
GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X