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Matchup Analysis·Welterweight
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry12 / 12
←Magny vs Brahimaj→
Red Corner

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-17 UFCLast9mo ago
Wrestler
Declining
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
5'9"ht·74"reach·Switchstance·39age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

16-2-16 UFCLast5mo ago
Wrestler
Rising
Early Chaos
5'10"ht·74"reach·Orthodoxstance·2811yrage
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingWellsSlight edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingOrolbaiDominant
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.OrolbaiDominant
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
1 signal
AGE GAP

Wells is 11 years older than Orolbai.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Wells
Wells
+1.07
Orolbai
+0.08
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Orolbai
Wells
1.84
Orolbai
4.38
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Wells
81%
Orolbai
85%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Wells
88
Durable
Orolbai
88
Durable
0 KO lossesKO losses0 KO losses
0.29KD / fight0.17
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Wells2.35SLpM
+
SLpM2.78Orolbai
5.1
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Wells
WellsOutput Holds Steady-7% R1→R3
OrolbaiOutput Drops Late-25% R1→R3
Finish History
Wells
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
1/2
Orolbai
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/1
Edge & Exposure
Wells
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Orolbai
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Opposition Quality
Wells5–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
4–1
Record (5)
+1.4
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
Orolbai5–1UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
4–1
Record (5)
-0.2
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
WellsWelterweightOrolbai
77th
Striking Differential
44th
92nd
Grappling Threat
98th
94th
Round Win Rate
97th
17th
TD Defense
3rd
79th
Durability
79th
48th
Finishing Rate
48th
Recent Form
Wells
Stat
Orolbai
1.962.35 career
↓0.39
SLpMOutput
⚠↓1.12
1.662.78 career
1.171.28 career
↓0.11
SApMAbsorbed
↓1.22
1.482.70 career
4.306.57 career
⚠↓2.27
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑4.59
19.4614.87 career
1.791.30 career
↑0.49
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↑0.17
0.670.50 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Wells43% distance
Finish 57%Decision 43%
Orolbai50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Wells 7 UFC fights·Orolbai 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Wells
9.8min
Orolbai
10.3min
Combined Distance Rate
46%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
WellsTO KNOCK OUTOrolbai
33
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins5
Orolbai's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses1
OrolbaiTO KNOCK OUTWells
30
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins1
Total UFC wins5
Wells's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses2
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
WellsTO SUBMITOrolbai
25
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins5
Orolbai's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses1
OrolbaiTO SUBMITWells
66
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins5
Wells's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses2
WellsWin MethodOrolbai
40%
KO / TKO
20%
20%
Submission
40%
40%
Decision
40%
5 UFC wins · 2 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec5 UFC wins · 1 KO · 2 Sub · 2 Dec
Wells
Loss Method
Orolbai
0%
KO / TKO
0%
50%
Submission
0%
50%
Decision
100%
2 UFC losses · 1 Sub · 1 Dec1 UFC loss · 1 Dec
Wells4 stoppages · 2 KO · 2 Sub
R1
2
R2
1
R3
1
R1R2R3
KO Win
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubCarlston HarrisR3 · 1:50
WKOCourt McGeeR1 · 1:34
WSubBlood DiamondR1 · 4:38
WKOWarlley AlvesR2 · 0:30
Orolbai3 stoppages · 1 KO · 2 Sub
R1
2
R2
1
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
Sub Win
All stoppages
WKOJack HermanssonR1 · 2:46
WSubTofiq MusayevR1 · 4:35
WSubUros MedicR2 · 4:12
Historical Context
Wells — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Themba GorimboWW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '25
32 SS (60%)·18 abs·3/5 td·6 td taken·365s ctrl·3 sub att
L
Max GriffinWW
S-DEC
R3
Feb '24
32 SS (37%)·26 abs·1/2 td·1 td taken·100s ctrl
L
Carlston HarrisWW
SUB
R31:50
Aug '23
18 SS (38%)·5 abs·3/5 td·566s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Matthew SemelsbergerWW
S-DEC
R3
Apr '23
36 SS (47%)·20 abs·6/10 td·672s ctrl·2 kd taken
W
Court McGeeVeteranWW
KO/TKO
R11:34
Jun '22
7 SS (44%)·3 abs·1 kd
W
Blood DiamondWW
SUB
R14:38
Feb '22
15 SS (79%)·1 abs·1/5 td·265s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Orolbai — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Chris CurtisWW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '26
20 SS (71%)·12 abs·19/24 td·753s ctrl
W
Jack HermanssonVeteranWW
KO/TKO
R12:46
Nov '25
15 SS (45%)·19 abs·1 kd
W
Tofiq MusayevCatch Weight
SUB
R14:35
Jun '25
2 SS (29%)·2 abs·3/5 td·220s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Mateusz RebeckiCatch Weight
S-DEC
R3
Oct '24
61 SS (45%)·71 abs·2/5 td·3 td taken·125s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Elves BrenerLW
U-DEC
R3
May '24
65 SS (55%)·48 abs·5/17 td·3 td taken·432s ctrl·1 kd
W
Uros MedicWW
SUB
R24:12
Nov '23
8 SS (40%)·14 abs·7/10 td·446s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Matchup·WW·3R
↑UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
12/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-17 UFC9mo ago
5'9"ht74"reachSwitch39 yrs
VS·WW·3R
Blue Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

16-2-16 UFC5mo ago
5'10"ht74"reachOrthodox28 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingWellsSlight edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingOrolbaiDominant
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.OrolbaiDominant
Signals
1
AGE GAPWells is 11 years older than Orolbai.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Wells
Wells+1.07
Orolbai+0.08
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Orolbai
Wells1.84
Orolbai4.38
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Wells81%
Orolbai85%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Wells
88Durable
Orolbai
88Durable
Stats
Wells
Orolbai
Striking
2.35SS Landed / min2.78
46%Str Acc50%
1.28SS Absorbed / min2.70
48%Str Def51%
0.29KD / fight0.33
Grappling
3.06TD / min8.77
50%TD Def40%
1.30Sub Att · /15m0.50
50%Sub Def—
Finish History
Wells
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
1/2
Orolbai
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/1
Wells43% distance
Finish 57%Decision 43%
Orolbai50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Wells 7 UFC fights·Orolbai 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Wells
9.8min
Orolbai
10.3min
Combined Distance Rate
46%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
WellsWinOrolbai
40%
KO
20%
20%
Sub
40%
40%
Dec
40%
5 wins2 KO1 Sub2 Dec
2 Dec2 Sub1 KO5 wins
WellsLossOrolbai
0%
KO
0%
50%
Sub
0%
50%
Dec
100%
2 losses1 Sub1 Dec
1 Dec1 loss
CQ Finish Risk
Wells
to knock out
Orolbai
33Elevated
Orolbai
to knock out
Wells
30Elevated
Wells
to submit
Orolbai
25Elevated
Orolbai
to submit
Wells
66Elite
Recent Form
Wells
Stat
Orolbai
1.96
2.35 career
↓0.39
SLpMOutput
↓1.12
1.66
2.78 career
1.17
1.28 career
↓0.11
SApMAbsorbed
↓1.22
1.48
2.70 career
4.30
6.57 career
↓2.27
TD AttAtt/15m
↑4.59
19.46
14.87 career
1.79
1.30 career
↑0.49
SubAtt/15m
↑0.17
0.67
0.50 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Wells—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Themba GorimboWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '25
32 SS (60%)·18 abs·3/5 td·6 td taken·365s ctrl·3 sub att
L
Max GriffinWW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Feb '24
32 SS (37%)·26 abs·1/2 td·1 td taken·100s ctrl
L
Carlston HarrisWW Bout
SUB · R3 · 1:50 · Aug '23
18 SS (38%)·5 abs·3/5 td·566s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Matthew SemelsbergerWW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Apr '23
36 SS (47%)·20 abs·6/10 td·672s ctrl·2 kd taken
W
Court McGeeVeteranWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:34 · Jun '22
7 SS (44%)·3 abs·1 kd
W
Blood DiamondWW Bout
SUB · R1 · 4:38 · Feb '22
15 SS (79%)·1 abs·1/5 td·265s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Orolbai—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Chris CurtisWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '26
20 SS (71%)·12 abs·19/24 td·753s ctrl
W
Jack HermanssonVeteranWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:46 · Nov '25
15 SS (45%)·19 abs·1 kd
W
Tofiq MusayevCatch Weight Bout
SUB · R1 · 4:35 · Jun '25
2 SS (29%)·2 abs·3/5 td·220s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Mateusz RebeckiCatch Weight Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Oct '24
61 SS (45%)·71 abs·2/5 td·3 td taken·125s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Elves BrenerLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '24
65 SS (55%)·48 abs·5/17 td·3 td taken·432s ctrl·1 kd
W
Uros MedicWW Bout
SUB · R2 · 4:12 · Nov '23
8 SS (40%)·14 abs·7/10 td·446s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
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CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X