UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2: Method of Victory Breakdowns

Welterweight5RMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Conor McGregor

22-6

74"

5' 9"

Max Holloway

27-9

69"

5' 11"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

McGregorTO KNOCK OUTHolloway

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min1.73

KO finish rate80%

Holloway's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.06

KO loss rate11%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins8

Total UFC wins10

Holloway's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses9

HollowayTO KNOCK OUTMcGregor

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.34

KO finish rate48%

McGregor's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.07

KO loss rate50%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins11

Total UFC wins23

McGregor's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses4

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

McGregorTO SUBMITHolloway

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.10

Sub win rate0%

Holloway's Risk

Sub loss rate11%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins10

Holloway's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses9

HollowayTO SUBMITMcGregor

High

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate9%

McGregor's Risk

Sub loss rate50%

Sub Wins

Submission wins2

Total UFC wins23

McGregor's Sub Losses

Sub losses2

Total UFC losses4

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

McGregor64%

Holloway71%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Benoit Saint Denis

17-3

73"

5' 11"

Paddy Pimblett

23-4

73"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DenisTO KNOCK OUTPimblett

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.87

KO finish rate56%

Pimblett's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.25

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins5

Total UFC wins9

Pimblett's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses1

PimblettTO KNOCK OUTDenis

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.34

KO finish rate29%

Denis's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.08

KO loss rate67%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins2

Total UFC wins7

Denis's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses3

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DenisTO SUBMITPimblett

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.80

Sub win rate44%

Pimblett's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins4

Total UFC wins9

Pimblett's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses1

PimblettTO SUBMITDenis

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.20

Sub win rate43%

Denis's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins7

Denis's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses3

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Denis77%

Pimblett42%

Denis wins a higher share of rounds scored.

BantamweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Cory Sandhagen

18-6

70"

5' 11"

Mario Bautista

17-3

69"

5' 9"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

SandhagenTO KNOCK OUTBautista

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.25

KO finish rate55%

Bautista's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.14

KO loss rate33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins6

Total UFC wins11

Bautista's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses3

BautistaTO KNOCK OUTSandhagen

Low

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.21

KO finish rate9%

Sandhagen's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.06

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins11

Sandhagen's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

SandhagenTO SUBMITBautista

High

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.20

Sub win rate9%

Bautista's Risk

Sub loss rate33%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins11

Bautista's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses3

BautistaTO SUBMITSandhagen

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.80

Sub win rate36%

Sandhagen's Risk

Sub loss rate20%

Sub Wins

Submission wins4

Total UFC wins11

Sandhagen's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses5

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Sandhagen71%

Bautista68%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Brandon Royval

17-9

68"

5' 9"

Lone'er Kavanagh

10-1

67"

5' 6"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RoyvalTO KNOCK OUTKavanagh

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.32

KO finish rate14%

Kavanagh's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.25

KO loss rate100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins7

Kavanagh's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses1

KavanaghTO KNOCK OUTRoyval

Elevated

Striking Threat *

KDs per 15 min0.00

KO finish rate0%

Royval's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.33

KO loss rate40%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins3

Royval's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RoyvalTO SUBMITKavanagh

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.10

Sub win rate43%

Kavanagh's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins7

Kavanagh's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses1

KavanaghTO SUBMITRoyval

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.20

Sub win rate0%

Royval's Risk

Sub loss rate20%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins3

Royval's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses5

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Royval42%

Kavanagh46%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

King Green

35-17-1

71"

5' 10"

Terrance McKinney

18-8

73"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GreenTO KNOCK OUTMcKinney

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.28

KO finish rate25%

McKinney's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.31

KO loss rate60%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins4

Total UFC wins16

McKinney's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses3

Total UFC losses5

McKinneyTO KNOCK OUTGreen

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min1.53

KO finish rate63%

Green's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.20

KO loss rate42%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins5

Total UFC wins8

Green's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses5

Total UFC losses12

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GreenTO SUBMITMcKinney

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate19%

McKinney's Risk

Sub loss rate40%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins16

McKinney's Sub Losses

Sub losses2

Total UFC losses5

McKinneyTO SUBMITGreen

High

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min2.10

Sub win rate38%

Green's Risk

Sub loss rate8%

Sub Wins

Submission wins3

Total UFC wins8

Green's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses12

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Green85%

McKinney67%

Green wins a higher share of rounds scored.

Light HeavyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Nikita Krylov

31-11

77"

6' 3"

Robert Whittaker

27-9

73"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

KrylovTO KNOCK OUTWhittaker

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.62

KO finish rate42%

Whittaker's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.33

KO loss rate43%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins5

Total UFC wins12

Whittaker's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses3

Total UFC losses7

WhittakerTO KNOCK OUTKrylov

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.55

KO finish rate35%

Krylov's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.14

KO loss rate33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins6

Total UFC wins17

Krylov's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses3

Total UFC losses9

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

KrylovTO SUBMITWhittaker

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.20

Sub win rate42%

Whittaker's Risk

Sub loss rate14%

Sub Wins

Submission wins5

Total UFC wins12

Whittaker's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses7

WhittakerTO SUBMITKrylov

Low

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Krylov's Risk

Sub loss rate44%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins17

Krylov's Sub Losses

Sub losses4

Total UFC losses9

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Krylov73%

Whittaker67%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

HeavyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Gable Steveson

3-0

—

Elisha Ellison

5-2

78"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

Steveson has no UFC fight history. Finish Risk requires at least one UFC appearance.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Steveson—

Ellison—

No round-level data for either fighter.

BantamweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Cody Garbrandt

15-7

65"

5' 8"

Adrian Yanez

17-6-1

70"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GarbrandtTO KNOCK OUTYanez

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.94

KO finish rate60%

Yanez's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.30

KO loss rate67%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins6

Total UFC wins10

Yanez's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses3

YanezTO KNOCK OUTGarbrandt

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min1.27

KO finish rate83%

Garbrandt's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.41

KO loss rate57%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins5

Total UFC wins6

Garbrandt's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses4

Total UFC losses7

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GarbrandtTO SUBMITYanez

Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Yanez's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins10

Yanez's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses3

YanezTO SUBMITGarbrandt

Low

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Garbrandt's Risk

Sub loss rate14%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins6

Garbrandt's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses7

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Garbrandt42%

Yanez60%

Yanez wins a higher share of rounds scored.

FeatherweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Luke Riley

13-0

69"

5' 9"

Kai Kamaka III

18-7-1

69"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RileyTO KNOCK OUTKamaka

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.73

KO finish rate50%

Kamaka's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.20

KO loss rate50%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins2

Kamaka's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses1

Total UFC losses2

KamakaTO KNOCK OUTRiley

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.22

KO finish rate0%

Riley's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins2

Riley's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RileyTO SUBMITKamaka

Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Kamaka's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins2

Kamaka's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses2

KamakaTO SUBMITRiley

Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.20

Sub win rate0%

Riley's Risk *

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins2

Riley's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Riley—

Kamaka57%

Kamaka wins 57% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

Women's FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Tracy Cortez

12-3

65"

5' 5"

Wang Cong

9-1

66"

5' 6"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

CortezTO KNOCK OUTCong

Low

Striking Threat *

KDs per 15 min0.00

KO finish rate0%

Cong's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.20

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins6

Cong's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses1

CongTO KNOCK OUTCortez

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.82

KO finish rate25%

Cortez's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.25

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins4

Cortez's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses2

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

CortezTO SUBMITCong

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate0%

Cong's Risk

Sub loss rate100%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins6

Cong's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses1

CongTO SUBMITCortez

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.80

Sub win rate0%

Cortez's Risk

Sub loss rate50%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins4

Cortez's Sub Losses

Sub losses1

Total UFC losses2

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Cortez56%

Cong83%

Cong wins a higher share of rounds scored.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Damian Pinas

9-1

79"

6' 1"

Cesar Almeida

7-2

74"

6' 1"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

PinasTO KNOCK OUTAlmeida

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min12.00

KO finish rate100%

Almeida's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.40

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins1

Almeida's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses2

AlmeidaTO KNOCK OUTPinas

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.27

KO finish rate67%

Pinas's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins2

Total UFC wins3

Pinas's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

PinasTO SUBMITAlmeida

Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Almeida's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins1

Almeida's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses2

AlmeidaTO SUBMITPinas

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.20

Sub win rate0%

Pinas's Risk *

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins3

Pinas's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Pinas—

Almeida33%

Almeida wins 33% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

BantamweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Farid Basharat

15-0

71"

5' 8"

Ethyn Ewing

10-2

69"

5' 6"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BasharatTO KNOCK OUTEwing

Low

Striking Threat *

KDs per 15 min0.00

KO finish rate0%

Ewing's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins0

Total UFC wins6

Ewing's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses0

EwingTO KNOCK OUTBasharat

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.56

KO finish rate50%

Basharat's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins2

Basharat's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BasharatTO SUBMITEwing

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate17%

Ewing's Risk *

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins6

Ewing's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses0

EwingTO SUBMITBasharat

Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Basharat's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins2

Basharat's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Basharat88%

Ewing—

Basharat wins 88% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Ryan Gandra

9-1

74"

6' 1"

Zach Reese

10-3

77"

6' 4"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GandraTO KNOCK OUTReese

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min21.95

KO finish rate100%

Reese's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate67%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins1

Reese's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses3

ReeseTO KNOCK OUTGandra

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.26

KO finish rate25%

Gandra's Chin *

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins4

Gandra's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses0

Total UFC losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GandraTO SUBMITReese

Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Reese's Risk

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins1

Reese's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses3

ReeseTO SUBMITGandra

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.30

Sub win rate25%

Gandra's Risk *

Sub loss rate0%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins4

Gandra's Sub Losses

Sub losses0

Total UFC losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Gandra—

Reese67%

Reese wins 67% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Ode Osbourne

13-9

73"

5' 7"

Cody Durden

18-10-1

67"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

OsbourneTO KNOCK OUTDurden

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.56

KO finish rate60%

Durden's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.25

KO loss rate25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins3

Total UFC wins5

Durden's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses8

DurdenTO KNOCK OUTOsbourne

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.09

KO finish rate14%

Osbourne's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.15

KO loss rate25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO wins1

Total UFC wins7

Osbourne's KO Losses

KO/TKO losses2

Total UFC losses8

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

OsbourneTO SUBMITDurden

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.40

Sub win rate0%

Durden's Risk

Sub loss rate50%

Sub Wins

Submission wins0

Total UFC wins5

Durden's Sub Losses

Sub losses4

Total UFC losses8

DurdenTO SUBMITOsbourne

Elite

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.70

Sub win rate14%

Osbourne's Risk

Sub loss rate38%

Sub Wins

Submission wins1

Total UFC wins7

Osbourne's Sub Losses

Sub losses3

Total UFC losses8

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Osbourne36%

Durden51%

Durden wins a higher share of rounds scored.

Welterweight5RMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Conor McGregor

22-6

74"

5' 9"

Max Holloway

27-9

69"

5' 11"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

McGregorTO KNOCK OUTHolloway

38Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 151.73

KO Finish80%

Holloway's Chin

KD Absorbed0.06

KO Loss11%

KO Wins

KO/TKO8

Total Wins10

Holloway's KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses9

HollowayTO KNOCK OUTMcGregor

54High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.34

KO Finish48%

McGregor's Chin

KD Absorbed0.07

KO Loss50%

KO Wins

KO/TKO11

Total Wins23

McGregor's KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses4

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

McGregorTO SUBMITHolloway

12Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.10

Sub Win0%

Holloway's Risk

Sub Loss11%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins10

Holloway's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses9

HollowayTO SUBMITMcGregor

41High

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.30

Sub Win9%

McGregor's Risk

Sub Loss50%

Sub Wins

Submissions2

Total Wins23

McGregor's Sub Losses

Sub Losses2

Total Losses4

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

McGregor64%

Holloway71%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Benoit Saint Denis

17-3

73"

5' 11"

Paddy Pimblett

23-4

73"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DenisTO KNOCK OUTPimblett

42High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.87

KO Finish56%

Pimblett's Chin

KD Absorbed0.25

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO5

Total Wins9

Pimblett's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses1

PimblettTO KNOCK OUTDenis

51High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.34

KO Finish29%

Denis's Chin

KD Absorbed0.08

KO Loss67%

KO Wins

KO/TKO2

Total Wins7

Denis's KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses3

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

DenisTO SUBMITPimblett

30Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.80

Sub Win44%

Pimblett's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions4

Total Wins9

Pimblett's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses1

PimblettTO SUBMITDenis

24Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.20

Sub Win43%

Denis's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins7

Denis's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses3

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Denis77%

Pimblett42%

Denis wins a higher share of rounds scored.

BantamweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Cory Sandhagen

18-6

70"

5' 11"

Mario Bautista

17-3

69"

5' 9"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

SandhagenTO KNOCK OUTBautista

46High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.25

KO Finish55%

Bautista's Chin

KD Absorbed0.14

KO Loss33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO6

Total Wins11

Bautista's KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses3

BautistaTO KNOCK OUTSandhagen

16Low

Striking Threat

KD / 150.21

KO Finish9%

Sandhagen's Chin

KD Absorbed0.06

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins11

Sandhagen's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

SandhagenTO SUBMITBautista

40High

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.20

Sub Win9%

Bautista's Risk

Sub Loss33%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins11

Bautista's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses3

BautistaTO SUBMITSandhagen

62Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.80

Sub Win36%

Sandhagen's Risk

Sub Loss20%

Sub Wins

Submissions4

Total Wins11

Sandhagen's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses5

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Sandhagen71%

Bautista68%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Brandon Royval

17-9

68"

5' 9"

Lone'er Kavanagh

10-1

67"

5' 6"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RoyvalTO KNOCK OUTKavanagh

42High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.32

KO Finish14%

Kavanagh's Chin

KD Absorbed0.25

KO Loss100%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins7

Kavanagh's KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses1

KavanaghTO KNOCK OUTRoyval

34Elevated

Striking Threat *

KD / 150.00

KO Finish0%

Royval's Chin

KD Absorbed0.33

KO Loss40%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins3

Royval's KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses5

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RoyvalTO SUBMITKavanagh

34Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.10

Sub Win43%

Kavanagh's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins7

Kavanagh's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses1

KavanaghTO SUBMITRoyval

21Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.20

Sub Win0%

Royval's Risk

Sub Loss20%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins3

Royval's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses5

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Royval42%

Kavanagh46%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

LightweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

King Green

35-17-1

71"

5' 10"

Terrance McKinney

18-8

73"

5' 10"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GreenTO KNOCK OUTMcKinney

50High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.28

KO Finish25%

McKinney's Chin

KD Absorbed0.31

KO Loss60%

KO Wins

KO/TKO4

Total Wins16

McKinney's KO Losses

KO/TKO3

Total Losses5

McKinneyTO KNOCK OUTGreen

65Elite

Striking Threat

KD / 151.53

KO Finish63%

Green's Chin

KD Absorbed0.20

KO Loss42%

KO Wins

KO/TKO5

Total Wins8

Green's KO Losses

KO/TKO5

Total Losses12

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GreenTO SUBMITMcKinney

56Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.30

Sub Win19%

McKinney's Risk

Sub Loss40%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins16

McKinney's Sub Losses

Sub Losses2

Total Losses5

McKinneyTO SUBMITGreen

48High

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 152.10

Sub Win38%

Green's Risk

Sub Loss8%

Sub Wins

Submissions3

Total Wins8

Green's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses12

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Green85%

McKinney67%

Green wins a higher share of rounds scored.

Light HeavyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Nikita Krylov

31-11

77"

6' 3"

Robert Whittaker

27-9

73"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

KrylovTO KNOCK OUTWhittaker

61Elite

Striking Threat

KD / 150.62

KO Finish42%

Whittaker's Chin

KD Absorbed0.33

KO Loss43%

KO Wins

KO/TKO5

Total Wins12

Whittaker's KO Losses

KO/TKO3

Total Losses7

WhittakerTO KNOCK OUTKrylov

48High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.55

KO Finish35%

Krylov's Chin

KD Absorbed0.14

KO Loss33%

KO Wins

KO/TKO6

Total Wins17

Krylov's KO Losses

KO/TKO3

Total Losses9

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

KrylovTO SUBMITWhittaker

58Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.20

Sub Win42%

Whittaker's Risk

Sub Loss14%

Sub Wins

Submissions5

Total Wins12

Whittaker's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses7

WhittakerTO SUBMITKrylov

14Low

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Krylov's Risk

Sub Loss44%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins17

Krylov's Sub Losses

Sub Losses4

Total Losses9

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Krylov73%

Whittaker67%

Neither fighter holds a clear edge on the cards.

HeavyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Gable Steveson

3-0

—

Elisha Ellison

5-2

78"

6' 0"

Finish Risk

Steveson has no UFC fight history. Finish Risk requires at least one UFC appearance.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Steveson—

Ellison—

No round-level data for either fighter.

BantamweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Cody Garbrandt

15-7

65"

5' 8"

Adrian Yanez

17-6-1

70"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GarbrandtTO KNOCK OUTYanez

69Elite

Striking Threat

KD / 150.94

KO Finish60%

Yanez's Chin

KD Absorbed0.30

KO Loss67%

KO Wins

KO/TKO6

Total Wins10

Yanez's KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses3

YanezTO KNOCK OUTGarbrandt

76Elite

Striking Threat

KD / 151.27

KO Finish83%

Garbrandt's Chin

KD Absorbed0.41

KO Loss57%

KO Wins

KO/TKO5

Total Wins6

Garbrandt's KO Losses

KO/TKO4

Total Losses7

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GarbrandtTO SUBMITYanez

4Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Yanez's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins10

Yanez's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses3

YanezTO SUBMITGarbrandt

13Low

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Garbrandt's Risk

Sub Loss14%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins6

Garbrandt's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses7

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Garbrandt42%

Yanez60%

Yanez wins a higher share of rounds scored.

FeatherweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Luke Riley

13-0

69"

5' 9"

Kai Kamaka III

18-7-1

69"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RileyTO KNOCK OUTKamaka

56Elite

Striking Threat

KD / 150.73

KO Finish50%

Kamaka's Chin

KD Absorbed0.20

KO Loss50%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins2

Kamaka's KO Losses

KO/TKO1

Total Losses2

KamakaTO KNOCK OUTRiley

26Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.22

KO Finish0%

Riley's Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins2

Riley's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

RileyTO SUBMITKamaka

10Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Kamaka's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins2

Kamaka's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses2

KamakaTO SUBMITRiley

11Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.20

Sub Win0%

Riley's Risk *

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins2

Riley's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Riley—

Kamaka57%

Kamaka wins 57% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

Women's FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Tracy Cortez

12-3

65"

5' 5"

Wang Cong

9-1

66"

5' 6"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

CortezTO KNOCK OUTCong

17Low

Striking Threat *

KD / 150.00

KO Finish0%

Cong's Chin

KD Absorbed0.20

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins6

Cong's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses1

CongTO KNOCK OUTCortez

37Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.82

KO Finish25%

Cortez's Chin

KD Absorbed0.25

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins4

Cortez's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses2

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

CortezTO SUBMITCong

23Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.30

Sub Win0%

Cong's Risk

Sub Loss100%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins6

Cong's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses1

CongTO SUBMITCortez

39Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.80

Sub Win0%

Cortez's Risk

Sub Loss50%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins4

Cortez's Sub Losses

Sub Losses1

Total Losses2

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Cortez56%

Cong83%

Cong wins a higher share of rounds scored.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Damian Pinas

9-1

79"

6' 1"

Cesar Almeida

7-2

74"

6' 1"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

PinasTO KNOCK OUTAlmeida

45High

Striking Threat

KD / 1512.00

KO Finish100%

Almeida's Chin

KD Absorbed0.40

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins1

Almeida's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses2

AlmeidaTO KNOCK OUTPinas

40High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.27

KO Finish67%

Pinas's Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO2

Total Wins3

Pinas's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

PinasTO SUBMITAlmeida

11Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Almeida's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins1

Almeida's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses2

AlmeidaTO SUBMITPinas

12Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.20

Sub Win0%

Pinas's Risk *

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins3

Pinas's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Pinas—

Almeida33%

Almeida wins 33% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

BantamweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Farid Basharat

15-0

71"

5' 8"

Ethyn Ewing

10-2

69"

5' 6"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BasharatTO KNOCK OUTEwing

20Low

Striking Threat *

KD / 150.00

KO Finish0%

Ewing's Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO0

Total Wins6

Ewing's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses0

EwingTO KNOCK OUTBasharat

32Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.56

KO Finish50%

Basharat's Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins2

Basharat's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

BasharatTO SUBMITEwing

21Low

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.30

Sub Win17%

Ewing's Risk *

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins6

Ewing's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses0

EwingTO SUBMITBasharat

9Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Basharat's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins2

Basharat's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Basharat88%

Ewing—

Basharat wins 88% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

MiddleweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Ryan Gandra

9-1

74"

6' 1"

Zach Reese

10-3

77"

6' 4"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GandraTO KNOCK OUTReese

58Elite

Striking Threat

KD / 1521.95

KO Finish100%

Reese's Chin

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss67%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins1

Reese's KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses3

ReeseTO KNOCK OUTGandra

34Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.26

KO Finish25%

Gandra's Chin *

KD Absorbed0.00

KO Loss0%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins4

Gandra's KO Losses

KO/TKO0

Total Losses0

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

GandraTO SUBMITReese

9Minimal

Sub Threat *

Sub Att / 150.00

Sub Win0%

Reese's Risk

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins1

Reese's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses3

ReeseTO SUBMITGandra

38Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 151.30

Sub Win25%

Gandra's Risk *

Sub Loss0%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins4

Gandra's Sub Losses

Sub Losses0

Total Losses0

* Score leans on a prior estimate where UFC sample is thin.

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Gandra—

Reese67%

Reese wins 67% of rounds scored. No data for their opponent.

FlyweightMatchup

Record

Reach

Height

Ode Osbourne

13-9

73"

5' 7"

Cody Durden

18-10-1

67"

5' 7"

Finish Risk

KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

OsbourneTO KNOCK OUTDurden

48High

Striking Threat

KD / 150.56

KO Finish60%

Durden's Chin

KD Absorbed0.25

KO Loss25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO3

Total Wins5

Durden's KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses8

DurdenTO KNOCK OUTOsbourne

28Elevated

Striking Threat

KD / 150.09

KO Finish14%

Osbourne's Chin

KD Absorbed0.15

KO Loss25%

KO Wins

KO/TKO1

Total Wins7

Osbourne's KO Losses

KO/TKO2

Total Losses8

Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK

OsbourneTO SUBMITDurden

26Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.40

Sub Win0%

Durden's Risk

Sub Loss50%

Sub Wins

Submissions0

Total Wins5

Durden's Sub Losses

Sub Losses4

Total Losses8

DurdenTO SUBMITOsbourne

55Elite

Sub Threat

Sub Att / 150.70

Sub Win14%

Osbourne's Risk

Sub Loss38%

Sub Wins

Submissions1

Total Wins7

Osbourne's Sub Losses

Sub Losses3

Total Losses8

Decision AdvantageRound Win Rate

Osbourne36%

Durden51%

Durden wins a higher share of rounds scored.