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Matchup Analysis·Flyweight
↑UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 24 / 14
←Sandhagen vs BautistaGreen vs McKinney→
Red Corner

Brandon Royval

“Raw Dawg”
17-912 UFCLast7mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
4× Title
4× 5R
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
5'9"+3"ht·68"reach·Southpawstance·33age
VS
Flyweight125 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Lone'er Kavanagh

10-14 UFCLast4mo ago
Balanced
Title Fight
5'6"ht·67"reach·Orthodoxstance·277yrage
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingKavanaghClear edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.RoyvalSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
2 signals
SOUTHPAW

Royval is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Royval natural angle advantages at range.

AGE GAP

Royval is 6 years older than Kavanagh.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Royval
+1.29
Kavanagh
+0.64
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Kavanagh
Royval
0.04
Kavanagh
0.62
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Royval
42%
Kavanagh
46%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Royval
62
Average
Kavanagh
53
Average
2 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.33KD / fight0.25
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Royval5.54SLpM
+
SLpM4.13Kavanagh
9.7
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Royval
RoyvalOutput Builds Late+109% R1→R3
KavanaghOutput Drops Late-27% R1→R3
Finish History
Royval
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×3
Finish rate (wins)
57%
4/7
Stopped rate (losses)
60%
3/5
Kavanagh
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
0%
0/3
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
1/1
Edge & Exposure
Royval
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Kavanagh
EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

ExposureChin Question

KO/TKO vulnerability is above division average. A clean power shot carries more consequence here.

Opposition Quality
Royval7–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–5
Record (11)
+1.4
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
Kavanagh3–1UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks
RoyvalFlyweightKavanagh
87th
Striking Differential
74th
50th
Grappling Threat
54th
34th
Round Win Rate
48th
20th
TD Defense
97th
26th
Durability
20th
60th
Finishing Rate
—

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Royval
Stat
Kavanagh
8.225.54 career
↑2.68
SLpMOutput
↑0.19
4.324.13 career
6.074.25 career
⚠↑1.82
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.02
3.513.49 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑0.17
2.722.55 career
1.041.10 career
↓0.06
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Striking
RoyvalKavanagh5 fights
Div avg
Sig. Strikes / Min
5.54
4.13
Str. Accuracy
41%
48%
Sig. Absorbed / min
4.25
3.49
Str. Defense
43%
56%
CQ KO Power
0.39
—
RoyvalStrike DistributionKavanagh
By Target
78%
Head
56%
16%
Body
24%
7%
Leg
20%
By Position
88%
Distance
85%
5%
Clinch
5%
8%
Ground
9%
Sig Strikes
Royval
64avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
11.5 min
Goes Dist
42%
Kavanagh
66avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
16.1 min
Goes Dist
75%
Historical Context
Royval — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Manel KapeTITLEFLY
KO/TKO
R13:18
Dec '25
17 SS (65%)·17 abs·1 kd taken
L
Joshua VanFLY
U-DEC
R3
Jun '25
215 SS (46%)·204 abs·1 kd taken
W
Tatsuro TairaTITLEFLY
S-DEC
R5
Oct '24
124 SS (53%)·42 abs·3/3 td·6 td taken·143s ctrl·3 sub att
W
Brandon MorenoVeteranTITLEFLY
S-DEC
R5
Feb '24
145 SS (28%)·112 abs·1/2 td·3 td taken·35s ctrl
L
Alexandre PantojaVeteranTITLEFLY
U-DEC
R5
Dec '23
111 SS (54%)·95 abs·0/1 td·8 td taken·47s ctrl
W
Matheus NicolauFLY
KO/TKO
R12:09
Apr '23
13 SS (59%)·2 abs·7s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Kavanagh — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·4 fights
W
Brandon MorenoVeteranTITLEFLY
U-DEC
R5
Feb '26
97 SS (47%)·79 abs·0/1 td
L
Charles JohnsonFLY
KO/TKO
R24:35
Aug '25
59 SS (49%)·44 abs·1/2 td·1 td taken·59s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att
W
Felipe dos SantosFLY
U-DEC
R3
Mar '25
58 SS (60%)·51 abs·4/6 td·393s ctrl
W
Jose OchoaFLY
U-DEC
R3
Nov '24
51 SS (40%)·50 abs·0/2 td
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WAn Tuan Ho
DWCSKO/TKOR1Aug 2024
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Brandon MorenoSame result
W
Royval
SD·R5·2024
W
Kavanagh
UD·R5·2026
Matchup·FLY·3R
↑UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
4/14←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Brandon Royval

“Raw Dawg”
17-912 UFC7mo ago
5'9"+3"ht68"reachSouthpaw33 yrs
VS·FLY·3R
Blue Corner

Lone'er Kavanagh

10-14 UFC4mo ago
5'6"ht67"reachOrthodox27 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingKavanaghClear edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.RoyvalSlight edge
Signals
2
SOUTHPAWRoyval is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.
AGE GAPRoyval is 6 years older than Kavanagh.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Royval+1.29
Kavanagh+0.64
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Kavanagh
Royval0.04
Kavanagh0.62
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Royval42%
Kavanagh46%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Royval
62Average
Kavanagh
53Average
Stats
Royval
Kavanagh
Striking
5.54SS Landed / min4.13
41%Str Acc48%
4.25SS Absorbed / min3.49
43%Str Def56%
0.25KD / fight0.00
Grappling
0.65TD / min1.12
45%TD Def94%
1.10Sub Att · /15m0.20
83%Sub Def100%
Finish History
Royval
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×3
Finish Rate (Wins)
57%
4/7
Stopped Rate (Losses)
60%
3/5
Kavanagh
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
0%
0/3
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
1/1
Royval42% distance
Finish 58%Decision 42%
Kavanagh75% distance
Finish 25%Decision 75%
Royval 12 UFC fights·Kavanagh 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Royval
11.5min
Kavanagh
16.1min
Combined Distance Rate
50%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
RoyvalWinKavanagh
14%
KO
0%
43%
Sub
0%
43%
Dec
100%
7 wins1 KO3 Sub3 Dec
3 Dec3 wins
RoyvalLossKavanagh
40%
KO
100%
20%
Sub
0%
40%
Dec
0%
5 losses2 KO1 Sub2 Dec
1 KO1 loss
CQ Finish Risk
Royval
to knock out
Kavanagh
42High
Kavanagh
to knock out
Royval
34Elevated
Royval
to submit
Kavanagh
34Elevated
Kavanagh
to submit
Royval
21Low
Recent Form
Royval
Stat
Kavanagh
8.22
5.54 career
↑2.68
SLpMOutput
↑0.19
4.32
4.13 career
6.07
4.25 career
↑1.82
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.02
3.51
3.49 career
—
TD AttAtt/15m
↑0.17
2.72
2.55 career
1.04
1.10 career
↓0.06
SubAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Royval—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Manel KapeTITLEFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:18 · Dec '25
17 SS (65%)·17 abs·1 kd taken
L
Joshua VanFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '25
215 SS (46%)·204 abs·1 kd taken
W
Tatsuro TairaTITLEFLY Bout
S-DEC · R5 · Oct '24
124 SS (53%)·42 abs·3/3 td·6 td taken·143s ctrl·3 sub att
W
Brandon MorenoVeteranTITLEFLY Bout
S-DEC · R5 · Feb '24
145 SS (28%)·112 abs·1/2 td·3 td taken·35s ctrl
L
Alexandre PantojaVeteranTITLEFLY Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Dec '23
111 SS (54%)·95 abs·0/1 td·8 td taken·47s ctrl
W
Matheus NicolauFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:09 · Apr '23
13 SS (59%)·2 abs·7s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Kavanagh—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·4 fights
W
Brandon MorenoVeteranTITLEFLY Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Feb '26
97 SS (47%)·79 abs·0/1 td
L
Charles JohnsonFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:35 · Aug '25
59 SS (49%)·44 abs·1/2 td·1 td taken·59s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att
W
Felipe dos SantosFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25
58 SS (60%)·51 abs·4/6 td·393s ctrl
W
Jose OchoaFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '24
51 SS (40%)·50 abs·0/2 td
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WAn Tuan Ho
DWCSKO/TKOR1Aug 2024
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Brandon MorenoSame result
W
Royval
SD·R5·2024
W
Kavanagh
UD·R5·2026
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X