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Matheus Nicolau lands 3.3 and absorbs 3.0 significant strikes per minute. Output and absorption are close.

Matheus Nicolau's takedown attempts are present but not a primary weapon.

Matheus Nicolau wins 59% of rounds across 27 scored. Wins more rounds than concedes in the majority of fights.

Matheus Nicolau has 3 KO/TKO losses in 4 total UFC losses. Absorbs 0.46 knockdowns per fight. Durability score of 40 out of 99, low for the division.

Matheus Nicolau has not fought in 20 months.

All Fighters
Fighter Profile›Flyweight

Matheus Nicolau

19-6-111 UFC
Balanced
Form
· 3L
Layoff Risk
Title Fight
High Wear
5'6"ht·66"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
Last fightLAsu Almabayev·U-DEC·R3·1.7yr ago
Fighter Context
7–4UFC·
1KO
·
1Sub
·
5Dec
·
11.2min/fight
·
123UFC min
vs. Winning-Record Opps
4–4(8 fights)
·
25%finish rate
·
-0.2str diff/min
CQ Key Stats
Striking Differential
+0.33
Neutral
63%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.175
Average
57%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
40
Low
9%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
59%
Strong
67%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Matheus Nicolau — 3.31 significant strikes per minute, 51% striking accuracy, absorbs 2.98 strikes per minute.

Nicolau
Distance Striker
Body Attacker
Flyweight avg
Sig. Strikes / Min3.31
Str. Accuracy51%
408UFC landed/786attempted
Sig. Absorbed / min
−0.7 vs avg2.98
Str. Defense65%
KD Rate / fight0.73
8UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / fight0.46
CQ KO Power
Elite95%ile1.96
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
53%
Body
34%
Leg
14%
By Position
Distance87%
/
Clinch1%
/
Ground12%
Sig. Strikes by Round
Round 111 rounds
Round 29 rounds
Round 37 rounds
Avg. Landed131914
Avg. Absorbed111813
Avg. Net+2+1+2
Grappling

Matheus Nicolau — 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, 43% takedown accuracy, 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 90% takedown defense.

Nicolau
Control Wrestler
·98s ctrlAverage Control
Flyweight avg
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min1.22
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY2.80
TD Accuracy43%
10UFC landed/23attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.80
1UFC wins/7attempted
Defense
Elite TD Def
TD Defense90%
19UFC defended/21opp. attempts
Sub Defense
Not Sub Tested
Finishing

Matheus Nicolau — 7 UFC wins (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 5 decision), 29% finish rate.

Finish Rate
29%
Decision Fighter
div avg 45%
How They Lose
4UFC losses
Win Breakdown
KO / TKO1 / 7
Submission1 / 7
Decision5 / 7
KD → Finish
1/4Low
Loss Breakdown
KO / TKO3 / 4
Submission0 / 4
Decision1 / 4
Loss Pattern
3 of 4 losses by finish in R1–R2
Finish Round Distribution
Finish WinsFinish LossesR1R2R3
KO/TKO W
KO/TKO L
SUB W
Cards & Decisions
Recovery Rate
43%
3 of 7 rounds won following a lost round
Decision Margin
1.4pts
W5 dec
—
L1 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
4UD
·
2SD
·
0MD
·
33%split rate
Career Trajectory
Win
Loss
D/NC
Elite opp (15+ wins)
Veteran opp (8+ wins)
Layoff
Div. change
sig. strikes trending down. Averaging 19 less in second half of career
0+25+50+75+100avg↗↵↵20152016201720182021202220232024

11 UFC fights · hover for details · colored line = 3-fight rolling avg

Pace & Cardio
Output
Absorbed
Diff
1.02.23.4R1R2R3
R1n=11
R2n=9
R3n=7
Outputsig strikes / min
2.7
4.4
3.0
Absorbedsig strikes / min
2.4
4.1
2.6
Diff
+0.3
+0.3
+0.3

Per-round averages across career · partial final rounds included at actual elapsed time · rounds below 5 min. career total suppressed · dashed lines = division avg

Last 8 Fights — Trend
KD Abs
▼Absorbed-36%L3
19%80%140%LWWWWLLL

Last 8 UFC fights · Absorbed & Strike Diff = index vs career avg (1.0 = avg, 0 = breakeven) · Orange dots = KDs absorbed

Nicolau — 11 UFC Fights

Matheus Nicolau — UFC fight record: 7 wins, 4 losses.

Result
Method
11 fights
L
Asu Almabayev
FLY
U-DEC R3Oct '24
-6
·16 SS (38%)·22 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 kd taken·1 sub att
L
Alex Perez
TITLEFLY
KO/TKO R2 · 2:16Apr '24
-6
·22 SS (40%)·28 abs·1 kd taken
L
Brandon Royval
FLY
KO/TKO R1 · 2:09Apr '23
-11
·2 SS (40%)·13 abs·1 kd taken
W
Matt Schnell
FLY
KO/TKO R2 · 1:44Dec '22
+12
·32 SS (76%)·20 abs·1/1 td·47s ctrl·2 kd landed
W
David Dvorak
FLY
U-DEC R3Mar '22
-3
·36 SS (44%)·39 abs·0/2 td·48s ctrl·1 kd landed
W
Tim Elliott
FLY
U-DEC R3Oct '21
-6
·64 SS (59%)·70 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·128s ctrl
W
Manel Kape
FLY
S-DEC R3Mar '21
-6
·55 SS (54%)·61 abs·2/9 td·151s ctrl·1 sub att
↵ 32mo layoff
L
Dustin Ortiz
FLY
KO/TKO R1 · 3:49Jul '18
-1
·7 SS (44%)·8 abs·1 kd taken
W
Louis Smolka
FLY
U-DEC R3Dec '17
+38
·87 SS (51%)·49 abs·3/4 td·259s ctrl·3 kd landed·2 sub att
↵ 17mo layoff
W
John Moraga
FLY
S-DEC R3Jul '16
+10
·41 SS (48%)·31 abs·0/1 td·43s ctrl
All Fighters
Flyweight

Matheus Nicolau

19-6-111 UFC
Form
3L
5'6"ht·66"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
Last fightLAsu Almabayev·U-DEC·1.7yr ago
Fighter Context
7–4UFC·
1KO
·
1Sub
·
5Dec
·
11.2min/fight
·
123UFC min
vs. Winning Record4–4
CQ Key Stats
Str. Differential
+0.33
63%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.175
57%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
40
9%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
59%
67%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking
Nicolau
Flyweight avg
Distance StrikerBody Attacker
Sig. Strikes / Min3.31
Str. Accuracy51%
408UFC landed/786attempted
Sig. Absorbed / Min
−0.7 vs avg2.98
Str. Defense65%
KD Rate / Fight0.73
8UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / Fight0.46
CQ KO Power
Elite95%ile1.96
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
53%
Body
34%
Leg
14%
By Position
Dist87%
Clinch1%
Ground12%
Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)
R1
n=11
R2
n=9
R3
n=7
Landed131914
Absorbed111813
Net+2+1+2
Grappling
Nicolau
Flyweight avg
Control Wrestler
98s ctrlAverage Control
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min1.22
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY2.80
TD Accuracy43%
10UFC landed/23attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.80
1UFC wins/7attempted
Defense
Elite TD Def
TD Defense90%
19UFC defended/21opp. attempts
Finishing
Finish Rate
29%
Decision Fighter
Win Methods
1KO/TKO
1Sub
5Dec
Loss Methods
3KO/TKO
0Sub
1Dec
Finish Round Distribution
R1
R2
R3
KO (W)
KO (L)
Sub (W)
Cards & Decisions
Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.
43%3 of 7 rounds
Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.
1.4pts
W5 dec
—more needed
L1 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
4UD
·
2SD
·
0MD
·
33%split rate
Career Trajectory chart available on desktop.
Pace & Cardio
Output
Absorbed
Diff
1.02.23.4R1R2R3
R1n=11
R2n=9
R3n=7
Outputsig strikes / min
2.7
4.4
3.0
Absorbedsig strikes / min
2.4
4.1
2.6
Diff
+0.3
+0.3
+0.3

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Nicolau — UFC Fight Log
|
L
Asu AlmabayevFLY
U-DEC·R3·Oct '24
16 SS (38%)·22 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 kd taken·1 sub
L
Alex PerezTITLEFLY
KO/TKO·R2·Apr '24
22 SS (40%)·28 abs·1 kd taken
L
Brandon RoyvalFLY
KO/TKO·R1·Apr '23
2 SS (40%)·13 abs·1 kd taken
W
Matt SchnellFLY
KO/TKO·R2·Dec '22
32 SS (76%)·20 abs·1/1 td·47s ctrl·2 kd
W
David DvorakFLY
U-DEC·R3·Mar '22
36 SS (44%)·39 abs·0/2 td·48s ctrl·1 kd
W
Tim ElliottFLY
U-DEC·R3·Oct '21
64 SS (59%)·70 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·128s ctrl
W
Manel KapeFLY
S-DEC·R3·Mar '21
55 SS (54%)·61 abs·2/9 td·151s ctrl·1 sub
L
Dustin OrtizFLY
KO/TKO·R1·Jul '18
7 SS (44%)·8 abs·1 kd taken
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X