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Matchup Analysis·Bantamweight
↑UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 23 / 14
←Denis vs PimblettRoyval vs Kavanagh→
Red Corner

Cory Sandhagen

18-616 UFCLast9mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
9× Title
9× 5R
Output Drops Late
Moderate Wear
5'11"+2"ht·70"reach·Switchstance·34age
VS
Bantamweight135 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Mario Bautista

17-314 UFCLast5mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Title Fight
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
5'9"ht·69"reach·Switchstance·32age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingBautistaSlight edge
KO Adv.SandhagenDominant
Sub Adv.BautistaClear edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
1 signal
CARDIO

Sandhagen's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Sandhagen
+1.39
Bautista
+1.32
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Bautista
Sandhagen
0.52
Bautista
0.84
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Sandhagen
71%
Bautista
68%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Sandhagen
100
Ironclad
Bautista
83
Durable
0 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.06KD / fight0.14
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Extreme
Sandhagen4.86SLpM
+
SLpM5.30Bautista
10.2
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Bautista
SandhagenOutput Drops Late
BautistaOutput Builds Late+100% R1→R3
Finish History
Sandhagen
KO/TKO ×6Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
64%
7/11
Stopped rate (losses)
20%
1/5
Bautista
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×4
Finish rate (wins)
45%
5/11
Stopped rate (losses)
67%
2/3
Edge & Exposure
Sandhagen
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

ExposureFades Hard

Output drops significantly in later rounds. Extended fights are a structural disadvantage.

Bautista
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Opposition Quality
Sandhagen11–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
9–5
Record (14)
+1.9
Str Diff/Min
56%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-16% step-up
8–3
Record (11)
+2.1
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
Bautista11–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
7–2
Record (9)
+1.0
Str Diff/Min
57%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-4% step-up
3–0
Record (3)
+2.0
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
SandhagenBantamweightBautista
83rd
Striking Differential
81st
43rd
Grappling Threat
64th
82nd
Round Win Rate
78th
33rd
TD Defense
31st
96th
Durability
66th
70th
Finishing Rate
32nd
Recent Form
Sandhagen
Stat
Bautista
3.474.86 career
⚠↓1.39
SLpMOutput
↓0.07
5.235.30 career
3.693.47 career
↑0.22
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.19
4.173.98 career
1.013.31 career
⚠↓2.30
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓1.97
3.024.99 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.05
0.750.80 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Sandhagen50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Bautista50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Sandhagen 16 UFC fights·Bautista 14 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Sandhagen
14.7min
Bautista
10.1min
Combined Distance Rate
50%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
SandhagenTO KNOCK OUTBautista
46
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins6
Total UFC wins11
Bautista's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses3
BautistaTO KNOCK OUTSandhagen
16
Low
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins1
Total UFC wins11
Sandhagen's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses5
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
SandhagenTO SUBMITBautista
40
High
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins11
Bautista's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses3
BautistaTO SUBMITSandhagen
62
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins4
Total UFC wins11
Sandhagen's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses5
SandhagenWin MethodBautista
55%
KO / TKO
9%
9%
Submission
36%
36%
Decision
55%
11 UFC wins · 6 KO · 1 Sub · 4 Dec11 UFC wins · 1 KO · 4 Sub · 6 Dec
Sandhagen
Loss Method
Bautista
0%
KO / TKO
33%
20%
Submission
33%
80%
Decision
33%
5 UFC losses · 1 Sub · 4 Dec3 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 1 Dec
Sandhagen8 stoppages · 6 KO · 2 Sub
R1
3
R2
4
R3
0
R4
1
R1R2R3R4
KO Win
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKODeiveson FigueiredoR2 · 4:08
WKOSong YadongR4 · 5:00
WKOFrankie EdgarR1 · 0:28
WKOMarlon MoraesR2 · 1:03
LSubAljamain SterlingR1 · 1:28
Bautista7 stoppages · 2 KO · 5 Sub
R1
4
R2
3
R3
0
R4
0
R1R2R3R4
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WSubVinicius OliveiraR2 · 4:46
WSubGuido CannettiR1 · 3:18
WSubBenito LopezR1 · 4:54
WSubBrian KelleherR1 · 2:27
LKOTrevin JonesR2 · 0:47
Historical Context
Sandhagen — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Merab DvalishviliVeteranTITLEBW
U-DEC
R5
Oct '25
80 SS (43%)·114 abs·20 td taken
W
Deiveson FigueiredoVeteranTITLEBW
KO/TKO
R24:08
May '25
54 SS (62%)·6 abs·2/2 td·2 td taken·307s ctrl
L
Umar NurmagomedovTITLEBW
U-DEC
R5
Aug '24
71 SS (45%)·98 abs·0/2 td·5 td taken·12s ctrl
W
Rob FontVeteranTITLECatch Weight
U-DEC
R5
Aug '23
34 SS (40%)·9 abs·7/7 td·1 td taken·1178s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Marlon VeraVeteranTITLEBW
S-DEC
R5
Mar '23
128 SS (46%)·58 abs·3/12 td·428s ctrl
W
Song YadongVeteranTITLEBW
KO/TKO
R45:00
Sep '22
94 SS (42%)·54 abs·1/14 td·2 td taken·227s ctrl
View full fight log →
Bautista — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Vinicius OliveiraTITLEBW
SUB
R24:46
Feb '26
15 SS (56%)·12 abs·5/7 td·347s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Umar NurmagomedovBW
U-DEC
R3
Oct '25
20 SS (37%)·32 abs·0/1 td·11 td taken·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Patchy MixBW
U-DEC
R3
Jun '25
173 SS (57%)·122 abs
W
Jose AldoVeteranBW
S-DEC
R3
Oct '24
49 SS (35%)·51 abs·0/10 td·435s ctrl
W
Ricky SimonVeteranBW
U-DEC
R3
Jan '24
112 SS (41%)·45 abs·0/3 td·2 td taken·14s ctrl
W
Da'Mon BlackshearBW
U-DEC
R3
Aug '23
79 SS (58%)·90 abs·2/10 td·4 td taken·244s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Umar NurmagomedovSame result
L
Sandhagen
UD·R5·2024
L
Bautista
UD·R3·2025
Matchup·BW·3R
↑UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
3/14←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Cory Sandhagen

18-616 UFC9mo ago
5'11"+2"ht70"reachSwitch34 yrs
VS·BW·3R
Blue Corner

Mario Bautista

17-314 UFC5mo ago
5'9"ht69"reachSwitch32 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingBautistaSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.SandhagenDominant
Sub Adv.BautistaClear edge
Signals
1
CARDIOSandhagen's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Sandhagen+1.39
Bautista+1.32
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Bautista
Sandhagen0.52
Bautista0.84
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Sandhagen71%
Bautista68%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Sandhagen
100Ironclad
Bautista
83Durable
Stats
Sandhagen
Bautista
Striking
4.86SS Landed / min5.30
45%Str Acc48%
3.47SS Absorbed / min3.98
56%Str Def54%
0.25KD / fight0.14
Grappling
1.15TD / min1.91
56%TD Def55%
0.20Sub Att · /15m0.80
86%Sub Def50%
Finish History
Sandhagen
KO/TKO ×6Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
64%
7/11
Stopped Rate (Losses)
20%
1/5
Bautista
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×4
Finish Rate (Wins)
45%
5/11
Stopped Rate (Losses)
67%
2/3
Sandhagen50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Bautista50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Sandhagen 16 UFC fights·Bautista 14 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Sandhagen
14.7min
Bautista
10.1min
Combined Distance Rate
50%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
SandhagenWinBautista
55%
KO
9%
9%
Sub
36%
36%
Dec
55%
11 wins6 KO1 Sub4 Dec
6 Dec4 Sub1 KO11 wins
SandhagenLossBautista
0%
KO
33%
20%
Sub
33%
80%
Dec
33%
5 losses1 Sub4 Dec
1 Dec1 Sub1 KO3 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Sandhagen
to knock out
Bautista
46High
Bautista
to knock out
Sandhagen
16Low
Sandhagen
to submit
Bautista
40High
Bautista
to submit
Sandhagen
62Elite
Recent Form
Sandhagen
Stat
Bautista
3.47
4.86 career
↓1.39
SLpMOutput
↓0.07
5.23
5.30 career
3.69
3.47 career
↑0.22
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.19
4.17
3.98 career
1.01
3.31 career
↓2.30
TD AttAtt/15m
↓1.97
3.02
4.99 career
—
SubAtt/15m
↓0.05
0.75
0.80 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Sandhagen—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Merab DvalishviliVeteranTITLEBW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Oct '25
80 SS (43%)·114 abs·20 td taken
W
Deiveson FigueiredoVeteranTITLEBW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:08 · May '25
54 SS (62%)·6 abs·2/2 td·2 td taken·307s ctrl
L
Umar NurmagomedovTITLEBW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Aug '24
71 SS (45%)·98 abs·0/2 td·5 td taken·12s ctrl
W
Rob FontVeteranTITLECatch Weight Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Aug '23
34 SS (40%)·9 abs·7/7 td·1 td taken·1178s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Marlon VeraVeteranTITLEBW Bout
S-DEC · R5 · Mar '23
128 SS (46%)·58 abs·3/12 td·428s ctrl
W
Song YadongVeteranTITLEBW Bout
KO/TKO · R4 · 5:00 · Sep '22
94 SS (42%)·54 abs·1/14 td·2 td taken·227s ctrl
View full fight log →
Bautista—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Vinicius OliveiraTITLEBW Bout
SUB · R2 · 4:46 · Feb '26
15 SS (56%)·12 abs·5/7 td·347s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Umar NurmagomedovBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '25
20 SS (37%)·32 abs·0/1 td·11 td taken·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Patchy MixBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '25
173 SS (57%)·122 abs
W
Jose AldoVeteranBW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Oct '24
49 SS (35%)·51 abs·0/10 td·435s ctrl
W
Ricky SimonVeteranBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jan '24
112 SS (41%)·45 abs·0/3 td·2 td taken·14s ctrl
W
Da'Mon BlackshearBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Aug '23
79 SS (58%)·90 abs·2/10 td·4 td taken·244s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Umar NurmagomedovSame result
L
Sandhagen
UD·R5·2024
L
Bautista
UD·R3·2025
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X