Matchup Analysis·Welterweight
Red Corner
Conor McGregor
“The Notorious”
22-614 UFCLast4yr ago
Pressure Fighter
Inactive
6× Title
11× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
5'9"ht·74"+5"reach·Southpawstance·37age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
5R
Blue Corner
Max Holloway
“Blessed”
27-932 UFCLast4mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
17× Title
18× 5R
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
5'11"+2"ht·69"reach·Orthodoxstance·34age
Signals5 signals
CQ
VOLATILITYBothBoth fighters absorb at a high rate
KO probability runs above the divisional baseline in matchups like this.
RING RUST
McGregor is returning after 60 months out.
SOUTHPAW
McGregor is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives McGregor natural angle advantages at range.
REACH CLIFF
McGregor has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, McGregor's reach is a structural advantage.
WC DEBUT
Holloway is making their UFC debut at Welterweight, moving up from Lightweight.
CQ Core Edges
McGregor
+0.66
Holloway
+2.30
McGregor
0.13
Holloway
0.08
McGregor
64%
Holloway
71%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
McGregor
68
AverageHolloway
100
Ironclad2 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.07KD / fight0.06
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
McGregor5.32SLpM
+SLpM6.91Holloway
12.2
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
McGregorOutput Holds Steady-14% R1→R3
HollowayOutput Builds Late+50% R1→R3
Finish History
McGregor
KO/TKO ×8
Finish rate (wins)
80%
8/10
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
4/4
Holloway
KO/TKO ×11Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
57%
13/23
Stopped rate (losses)
22%
2/9
Edge & Exposure
McGregor
EdgeKO Threat
Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.
EdgeStriking Edge
Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.
Holloway
EdgeStriking Dominant
Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
Opposition Quality
McGregor10–4UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
10–4
Record (14)
+3.2
Str Diff/Min
80%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)+27% step-up
5–4
Record (9)
+3.0
Str Diff/Min
80%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
1–2
Record (3)
+8.1
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Holloway23–9UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
19–9
Record (28)
+2.2
Str Diff/Min
58%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-24% step-up
10–4
Record (14)
+1.8
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
2–2
Record (4)
+1.0
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
McGregorWelterweightHolloway
68th
Striking Differential
96th47th
Grappling Threat
25th79th
Round Win Rate
89th47th
TD Defense
83rd49th
Durability
98th79th
Finishing Rate
55thRecent Form
McGregor
Stat
Holloway
5.685.32 career
↑0.36
SLpMOutput
⚠↓1.99
4.926.91 career
6.364.66 career
⚠↑1.70
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.81
3.804.61 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
McGregor14% distance
Finish 86%Decision 14%
Holloway53% distance
Finish 47%Decision 53%
McGregor 14 UFC fights·Holloway 32 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
McGregor
8.0min
Holloway
16.6min
Combined Distance Rate
41%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
McGregorTO KNOCK OUTHolloway
38
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins8
Total UFC wins10
Holloway's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses9
HollowayTO KNOCK OUTMcGregor
54
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins11
Total UFC wins23
McGregor's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses4
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
McGregorTO SUBMITHolloway
12
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins10
Holloway's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses9
HollowayTO SUBMITMcGregor
41
High
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins23
McGregor's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses4
McGregorWin MethodHolloway
80%
KO / TKO
48%
0%
Submission
9%
20%
Decision
43%
10 UFC wins · 8 KO · 2 Dec23 UFC wins · 11 KO · 2 Sub · 10 Dec
McGregor
Loss Method
Holloway50%
KO / TKO
11%
50%
Submission
11%
0%
Decision
78%
4 UFC losses · 2 KO · 2 Sub9 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 7 Dec
McGregor12 stoppages · 10 KO · 2 Sub
R1
6
R2
5
R30
R4
1
R50
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKODustin PoirierR1 · 5:00
LKODustin PoirierR2 · 2:32
WKODonald CerroneR1 · 0:40
LSubKhabib NurmagomedovR4 · 3:03
WKOEddie AlvarezR2 · 3:04
Holloway15 stoppages · 12 KO · 3 Sub
R1
3
R2
2
R3
8
R4
1
R5
1
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOIlia TopuriaR3 · 1:34
WKOJustin GaethjeR5 · 4:59
WKOChan Sung JungR3 · 0:23
WKOBrian OrtegaR4 · 5:00
WKOJose AldoR3 · 4:51
Historical Context
McGregor — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
27 SS (71%)·36 abs·1 td taken·1 sub att
29 SS (44%)·48 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·67s ctrl·1 kd taken
19 SS (73%)·0 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd
51 SS (63%)·70 abs·3 td taken
32 SS (38%)·9 abs·54s ctrl·3 kd
164 SS (57%)·166 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·91s ctrl·3 kd
Holloway — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
26 SS (58%)·50 abs·5 td taken·96s ctrl
198 SS (53%)·109 abs·92s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
79 SS (39%)·75 abs·2 td taken·1 kd taken
181 SS (59%)·103 abs·1 kd
75 SS (59%)·34 abs·57s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att
147 SS (56%)·76 abs
Common Opponents
Jose AldoSame result
W
McGregor
KO/TKO·R1·2015
W
Holloway
KO/TKO·R3·2017
Dustin PoirierSplit result
L
McGregor
KO/TKO·R1·2021
W
Holloway
UD·R5·2025