Matchup Analysis·Welterweight Bout
Red Corner
Conor McGregor
“The Notorious”
22-715 UFCLast2mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
7× Title
12× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
High Wear
5'9"ht·74"+5"reach·Southpawstance·38age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
Blue Corner
Max Holloway
“Blessed”
28-933 UFCLast2mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
18× Title
19× 5R
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
5'11"+2"ht·69"reach·Orthodoxstance·34age
Signals3 signals
CQ
VOLATILITYBothBoth fighters absorb at a high rate
KO probability runs above the divisional baseline in matchups like this.
SOUTHPAW
McGregor is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives McGregor natural angle advantages at range.
REACH CLIFF
McGregor has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, McGregor's reach is a structural advantage.
CQ Core Edges
McGregor
+0.56
Holloway
+2.32
McGregor
0.13
Holloway
0.07
McGregor
62%
Holloway
71%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
McGregor
55
AverageHolloway
100
Ironclad3 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.07KD / fight0.06
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
McGregor5.27SLpM
+SLpM6.92Holloway
12.2
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
McGregorOutput Holds Steady-12% R1→R3
HollowayOutput Builds Late+49% R1→R3
Finish History
McGregor
KO/TKO ×8
Finish rate (wins)
80%
8/10
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
5/5
Holloway
KO/TKO ×12Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
58%
14/24
Stopped rate (losses)
22%
2/9
Edge & Exposure
McGregor
EdgeKO Threat
Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.
Holloway
EdgeStriking Dominant
Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
Opposition Quality
McGregor10–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
10–5
Record (15)
+2.3
Str Diff/Min
80%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)+26% step-up
5–5
Record (10)
+1.6
Str Diff/Min
80%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
1–3
Record (4)
+3.4
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Holloway24–9UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
20–9
Record (29)
+2.5
Str Diff/Min
60%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-23% step-up
11–4
Record (15)
+2.4
Str Diff/Min
46%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
2–2
Record (4)
+1.0
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
McGregorWelterweightHolloway
60th
Striking Differential
92nd50th
Grappling Threat
26th70th
Round Win Rate
85th54th
TD Defense
90th31st
Durability
99th72nd
Finishing Rate
53rdRecent Form
McGregor
Stat
Holloway
4.095.27 career
⚠↓1.18
SLpMOutput
⚠↓2.31
4.616.92 career
7.024.71 career
⚠↑2.31
SApMAbsorbed
↓1.49
3.114.60 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
McGregor13% distance
Finish 87%Decision 13%
Holloway52% distance
Finish 48%Decision 52%
McGregor 15 UFC fights·Holloway 33 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
McGregor
7.6min
Holloway
16.2min
Combined Distance Rate
40%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
McGregorTO KNOCK OUTHolloway
38
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins8
Total UFC wins10
Holloway's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses9
HollowayTO KNOCK OUTMcGregor
57
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins12
Total UFC wins24
McGregor's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses5
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
McGregorTO SUBMITHolloway
12
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins10
Holloway's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses9
HollowayTO SUBMITMcGregor
41
High
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins24
McGregor's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses5
McGregorWin MethodHolloway
80%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
8%
20%
Decision
42%
10 UFC wins · 8 KO · 2 Dec24 UFC wins · 12 KO · 2 Sub · 10 Dec
McGregor
Loss Method
Holloway60%
KO / TKO
11%
40%
Submission
11%
0%
Decision
78%
5 UFC losses · 3 KO · 2 Sub9 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 7 Dec
McGregor13 stoppages · 11 KO · 2 Sub
R1
7
R2
5
R30
R4
1
R50
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOMax HollowayR1 · 1:09
LKODustin PoirierR1 · 5:00
LKODustin PoirierR2 · 2:32
WKODonald CerroneR1 · 0:40
LSubKhabib NurmagomedovR4 · 3:03
Holloway16 stoppages · 13 KO · 3 Sub
R1
4
R2
2
R3
8
R4
1
R5
1
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKOConor McGregorR1 · 1:09
LKOIlia TopuriaR3 · 1:34
WKOJustin GaethjeR5 · 4:59
WKOChan Sung JungR3 · 0:23
WKOBrian OrtegaR4 · 5:00
Historical Context
McGregor — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
0 SS (0%)·12 abs
27 SS (71%)·36 abs·1 td taken·1 sub att
29 SS (44%)·48 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·67s ctrl·1 kd taken
19 SS (73%)·0 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd
51 SS (63%)·70 abs·3 td taken
32 SS (38%)·9 abs·54s ctrl·3 kd
Holloway — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
12 SS (63%)·0 abs·37s ctrl
26 SS (58%)·50 abs·5 td taken·96s ctrl
198 SS (53%)·109 abs·92s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
79 SS (39%)·75 abs·2 td taken·1 kd taken
181 SS (59%)·103 abs·1 kd
75 SS (59%)·34 abs·57s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att
Common Opponents
Jose AldoSame result
W
McGregor
KO/TKO·R1·2015
W
Holloway
KO/TKO·R3·2017
Dustin PoirierSplit result
L
McGregor
KO/TKO·R1·2021
W
Holloway
UD·R5·2025