Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki

KO/TKO

R12:25

Dec '25

8 SS (38%)·9 abs·0/2 td·1 kd taken

Diego FerreiraVeteran

U-DEC

Jan '25

56 SS (57%)·41 abs·6/11 td·650s ctrl

KO/TKO

R21:42

Oct '24

44 SS (49%)·5 abs·2/4 td·309s ctrl

U-DEC

Jun '24

46 SS (66%)·12 abs·3/3 td·826s ctrl

King GreenVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO

R10:33

Oct '23

0 SS (0%)·7 abs·1 kd taken

U-DEC

Jul '23

30 SS (53%)·13 abs·3/5 td·744s ctrl·1 sub att

Rebecki — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·7 fights

M-DEC

Oct '25

72 SS (45%)·82 abs·3/12 td·303s ctrl

U-DEC

Aug '25

114 SS (43%)·92 abs·2/6 td·83s ctrl

S-DEC

Oct '24

71 SS (49%)·61 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·144s ctrl·1 kd

Diego FerreiraVeteran

KO/TKO

R34:51

May '24

52 SS (38%)·123 abs·4/5 td·3 td taken·146s ctrl·1 kd

SUB

R13:08

Nov '23

10 SS (63%)·2 abs·2/2 td·134s ctrl·1 sub att

KO/TKO

R22:36

Jun '23

54 SS (57%)·19 abs·1/1 td·117s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Common Opponents

Diego FerreiraSplit result

Dawson

UD·R3·2025

Rebecki

KO/TKO·R3·2024

Matchup·LW·3R

8/13←→

Red Corner

Grant Dawson

“KGD”

23-3-114 UFC5mo ago

5'10"+3"ht72"+6"reachSwitch32 yrs

VS·LW·3R

Blue Corner

Mateusz Rebecki

20-47 UFC6mo ago

5'7"ht66"reachSouthpaw33 yrs

Polymarket

Dawson 60%40% Rebecki

Striking—

DecisionDawsonSlight edge

GrapplingDawsonClear edge

Durability—

KO Adv.RebeckiDominant

Sub Adv.DawsonSlight edge

Signals

CARDIORebecki's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

—

Dawson+1.08

Rebecki+0.52

CQGrappling

Dawson

Dawson1.91

Rebecki1.45

CQDecision

Dawson

Dawson86%

Rebecki67%

CQDurability

—

Dawson67Average

Rebecki69Average

CQCardio

Dawson

DawsonOutput Builds Late

RebeckiOutput Drops Late

CQPace Index

High

Dawson3.21SLpM

Rebecki5.21SLpM

8.4

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Dawson

KO/TKO ×2Sub ×4

Finish Rate (Wins)

55%

6/11

Stopped Rate (Losses)

100%

2/2

Rebecki

KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1

Finish Rate (Wins)

50%

2/4

Stopped Rate (Losses)

33%

1/3

Opposition Quality

Dawson11–2UFC

Rebecki4–3UFC

vs. Winning-Record

9–2n=12

+0.0strike diff/min

3–3n=6

+0.6strike diff/min

Division Percentile Ranks

DawsonRebecki

76thStriking Diff61st

92ndGrappling93rd

97thRound Win Rate85th

29thTD Defense19th

47thDurability51st

52ndFinish Rate40th

Recent Form

Dawson

Stat

Rebecki

4.48

3.21 career

↑1.27

SLpMOutput

↑0.50

5.71

5.21 career

2.28

2.13 career

↑0.15

SApMAbsorbed

↑0.53

5.22

4.69 career

10.57

9.87 career

↑0.70

TD AttAtt/15m

↑1.37

7.33

5.96 career

0.00

1.10 career

↓1.10

SubAtt/15m

↓0.50

0.00

0.50 career

Stat Breakdown

Dawson43% distance

Finish 57%Decision 43%

Rebecki57% distance

Finish 43%Decision 57%

Dawson 14 UFC fights·Rebecki 7 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Dawson

11.1min

Rebecki

12.2min

Combined Distance Rate

48%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Dawson→Rebecki

30Elevated

Threat

KD / 15 min0.10

KO rate18%

Rebecki's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.00

KO loss rate33%

Rebecki→Dawson

56Elite

Threat

KD / 15 min0.70

KO rate25%

Dawson's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.14

KO loss rate100%

Sub Danger

Dawson→Rebecki

29Elevated

Threat

Sub att / 15m1.10

Sub win rate36%

Rebecki's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

Rebecki→Dawson

17Low

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.50

Sub win rate25%

Dawson's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

DawsonWinRebecki

18%

25%

36%

Sub

25%

45%

Dec

50%

11 wins2 KO4 Sub5 Dec

2 Dec1 Sub1 KO4 wins

DawsonLossRebecki

100%

33%

Sub

Dec

67%

2 losses2 KO

2 Dec1 KO3 losses

Round Distribution

Dawson

8 stoppages4 KO4 Sub

All Stoppages

LKOTorresR1 · 2:25

WKOGarciaR2 · 1:42

LKOGreenR1 · 0:33

WSUBMadsenR3 · 2:05

Rebecki

3 stoppages2 KO1 Sub

All Stoppages

LKOFerreiraR3 · 4:51

WSUBRobertsR1 · 3:08

WKORadzhabovR2 · 2:36

Historical Context

Dawson—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·14 fights

KO/TKO · R1 · 2:25 · Dec '25

8 SS (38%)·9 abs·0/2 td·1 kd taken

Diego FerreiraVeteran

U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25

56 SS (57%)·41 abs·6/11 td·650s ctrl

KO/TKO · R2 · 1:42 · Oct '24

44 SS (49%)·5 abs·2/4 td·309s ctrl

U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24

46 SS (66%)·12 abs·3/3 td·826s ctrl

King GreenVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO · R1 · 0:33 · Oct '23

0 SS (0%)·7 abs·1 kd taken

U-DEC · R3 · Jul '23

30 SS (53%)·13 abs·3/5 td·744s ctrl·1 sub att

Rebecki—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·7 fights

M-DEC · R3 · Oct '25

72 SS (45%)·82 abs·3/12 td·303s ctrl

U-DEC · R3 · Aug '25

114 SS (43%)·92 abs·2/6 td·83s ctrl

S-DEC · R3 · Oct '24

71 SS (49%)·61 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·144s ctrl·1 kd

Diego FerreiraVeteran

KO/TKO · R3 · 4:51 · May '24

52 SS (38%)·123 abs·4/5 td·3 td taken·146s ctrl·1 kd

SUB · R1 · 3:08 · Nov '23

10 SS (63%)·2 abs·2/2 td·134s ctrl·1 sub att

KO/TKO · R2 · 2:36 · Jun '23

54 SS (57%)·19 abs·1/1 td·117s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att

←Alvarez vs Amosov Miller vs Gordon→

Common Opponents

Diego FerreiraSplit result

Dawson

UD·R3·2025

Rebecki

KO/TKO·R3·2024

Matchup Analysis·Lightweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland8 / 13

Red Corner

Grant Dawson

“KGD”

23-3-114 UFCLast5mo ago

Wrestler

Title Fight

Output Builds Late

Moderate Wear

5'10"+3"ht·72"+6"reach·Switchstance·32age

Lightweight155 lbs

Blue Corner

Mateusz Rebecki

20-47 UFCLast6mo ago

Wrestler

Declining

Output Drops Late

5'7"ht·66"reach·Southpawstance·33age

Dawson 60%

40% Rebecki

Polymarket

Outcome—

Striking—

DecisionDawsonSlight edge

GrapplingDawsonClear edge

KO Adv.RebeckiDominant

Sub Adv.DawsonSlight edge

Durability—

Signals

1 signal

CARDIO

Rebecki's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

—

Dawson

+1.08

Rebecki

+0.52

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

Dawson

1.91

Rebecki

1.45

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

Dawson

86%

Rebecki

67%

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

—

Dawson

Average

Rebecki

Average

2 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss

0.14KD / fight0.00

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

High

Dawson3.21SLpM

SLpM5.21Rebecki

8.4

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

Dawson

DawsonOutput Builds Late+38% R1→R3

RebeckiOutput Drops Late

Finish History

Dawson

KO/TKO ×2Sub ×4

Finish rate (wins)

55%

6/11

Stopped rate (losses)

100%

2/2

Rebecki

KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1

Finish rate (wins)

50%

2/4

Stopped rate (losses)

33%

1/3

Edge & Exposure

Dawson

EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Rebecki

EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

ExposureFades Hard

Output drops significantly in later rounds. Extended fights are a structural disadvantage.

Opposition Quality

Dawson11–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

9–2

Record (12)

+0.0

Str Diff/Min

56%

Finish (W)

Rebecki4–3UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

3–3

Record (6)

+0.6

Str Diff/Min

67%

Finish (W)

Division Percentile Ranks

DawsonLightweightRebecki

76th

Striking Differential

61st

92nd

Grappling Threat

93rd

97th

Round Win Rate

85th

29th

TD Defense

19th

47th

Durability

51st

52nd

Finishing Rate

40th

Recent Form

Dawson

Stat

Rebecki

4.483.21 career

↑1.27

SLpMOutput

↑0.50

5.715.21 career

2.282.13 career

↑0.15

SApMAbsorbed

↑0.53

5.224.69 career

10.579.87 career

↑0.70

TD AttAttempts/15m

↑1.37

7.335.96 career

0.001.10 career

⚠↓1.10

Sub AttAttempts/15m

↓0.50

0.000.50 career

Stat Breakdown

Finishes

Dawson43% distance

Finish 57%Decision 43%

Rebecki57% distance

Finish 43%Decision 57%

Dawson 14 UFC fights·Rebecki 7 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Dawson

11.1min

Rebecki

12.2min

Combined Distance Rate

48%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Dawson→Rebecki

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.10

KO finish rate18%

Rebecki's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate33%

Rebecki→Dawson

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.70

KO finish rate25%

Dawson's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.14

KO loss rate100%

Sub Danger

Dawson→Rebecki

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.10

Sub win rate36%

Rebecki's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate0%

Rebecki→Dawson

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.50

Sub win rate25%

Dawson's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate0%

DawsonWin MethodRebecki

18%

KO / TKO

25%

36%

Submission

25%

45%

Decision

50%

11 UFC wins · 2 KO · 4 Sub · 5 Dec4 UFC wins · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec

Dawson

Loss Method

Rebecki

100%

KO / TKO

33%

Submission

Decision

67%

2 UFC losses · 2 KO3 UFC losses · 1 KO · 2 Dec

Dawson8 stoppages · 4 KO · 4 Sub

KO Win

KO Loss

Sub Win

All stoppages

LKOManuel TorresR1 · 2:25

WKORafa GarciaR2 · 1:42

LKOKing GreenR1 · 0:33

WSubMark MadsenR3 · 2:05

WSubJared GordonR3 · 4:11

Rebecki3 stoppages · 2 KO · 1 Sub

KO Win

KO Loss

Sub Win

All stoppages

LKODiego FerreiraR3 · 4:51

WSubRoosevelt RobertsR1 · 3:08

WKOLoik RadzhabovR2 · 2:36

Historical Context

Dawson — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·14 fights

KO/TKO

R12:25

Dec '25

8 SS (38%)·9 abs·0/2 td·1 kd taken

Diego FerreiraVeteran

U-DEC

Jan '25

56 SS (57%)·41 abs·6/11 td·650s ctrl

KO/TKO

R21:42

Oct '24

44 SS (49%)·5 abs·2/4 td·309s ctrl

U-DEC

Jun '24

46 SS (66%)·12 abs·3/3 td·826s ctrl

King GreenVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO

R10:33

Oct '23

0 SS (0%)·7 abs·1 kd taken

U-DEC

Jul '23

30 SS (53%)·13 abs·3/5 td·744s ctrl·1 sub att

Rebecki — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·7 fights

M-DEC

Oct '25

72 SS (45%)·82 abs·3/12 td·303s ctrl

U-DEC

Aug '25

114 SS (43%)·92 abs·2/6 td·83s ctrl

S-DEC

Oct '24

71 SS (49%)·61 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·144s ctrl·1 kd

Diego FerreiraVeteran

KO/TKO

R34:51

May '24

52 SS (38%)·123 abs·4/5 td·3 td taken·146s ctrl·1 kd

SUB

R13:08

Nov '23

10 SS (63%)·2 abs·2/2 td·134s ctrl·1 sub att

KO/TKO

R22:36

Jun '23

54 SS (57%)·19 abs·1/1 td·117s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Common Opponents

Diego FerreiraSplit result

Dawson

UD·R3·2025

Rebecki

KO/TKO·R3·2024

Matchup·LW·3R

8/13←→

Red Corner

Grant Dawson

“KGD”

23-3-114 UFC5mo ago

5'10"+3"ht72"+6"reachSwitch32 yrs

VS·LW·3R

Blue Corner

Mateusz Rebecki

20-47 UFC6mo ago

5'7"ht66"reachSouthpaw33 yrs

Polymarket

Dawson 60%40% Rebecki

Striking—

DecisionDawsonSlight edge

GrapplingDawsonClear edge

Durability—

KO Adv.RebeckiDominant

Sub Adv.DawsonSlight edge

Signals

CARDIORebecki's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

—

Dawson+1.08

Rebecki+0.52

CQGrappling

Dawson

Dawson1.91

Rebecki1.45

CQDecision

Dawson

Dawson86%

Rebecki67%

CQDurability

—

Dawson67Average

Rebecki69Average

CQCardio

Dawson

DawsonOutput Builds Late

RebeckiOutput Drops Late

CQPace Index

High

Dawson3.21SLpM

Rebecki5.21SLpM

8.4

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Dawson

KO/TKO ×2Sub ×4

Finish Rate (Wins)

55%

6/11

Stopped Rate (Losses)

100%

2/2

Rebecki

KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1

Finish Rate (Wins)

50%

2/4

Stopped Rate (Losses)

33%

1/3

Opposition Quality

Dawson11–2UFC

Rebecki4–3UFC

vs. Winning-Record

9–2n=12

+0.0strike diff/min

3–3n=6

+0.6strike diff/min

Division Percentile Ranks

DawsonRebecki

76thStriking Diff61st

92ndGrappling93rd

97thRound Win Rate85th

29thTD Defense19th

47thDurability51st

52ndFinish Rate40th

Recent Form

Dawson

Stat

Rebecki

4.48

3.21 career

↑1.27

SLpMOutput

↑0.50

5.71

5.21 career

2.28

2.13 career

↑0.15

SApMAbsorbed

↑0.53

5.22

4.69 career

10.57

9.87 career

↑0.70

TD AttAtt/15m

↑1.37

7.33

5.96 career

0.00

1.10 career

↓1.10

SubAtt/15m

↓0.50

0.00

0.50 career

Stat Breakdown

Dawson43% distance

Finish 57%Decision 43%

Rebecki57% distance

Finish 43%Decision 57%

Dawson 14 UFC fights·Rebecki 7 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Dawson

11.1min

Rebecki

12.2min

Combined Distance Rate

48%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Dawson→Rebecki

30Elevated

Threat

KD / 15 min0.10

KO rate18%

Rebecki's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.00

KO loss rate33%

Rebecki→Dawson

56Elite

Threat

KD / 15 min0.70

KO rate25%

Dawson's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.14

KO loss rate100%

Sub Danger

Dawson→Rebecki

29Elevated

Threat

Sub att / 15m1.10

Sub win rate36%

Rebecki's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

Rebecki→Dawson

17Low

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.50

Sub win rate25%

Dawson's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

DawsonWinRebecki

18%

25%

36%

Sub

25%

45%

Dec

50%

11 wins2 KO4 Sub5 Dec

2 Dec1 Sub1 KO4 wins

DawsonLossRebecki

100%

33%

Sub

Dec

67%

2 losses2 KO

2 Dec1 KO3 losses

Round Distribution

Dawson

8 stoppages4 KO4 Sub

All Stoppages

LKOTorresR1 · 2:25

WKOGarciaR2 · 1:42

LKOGreenR1 · 0:33

WSUBMadsenR3 · 2:05

Rebecki

3 stoppages2 KO1 Sub

All Stoppages

LKOFerreiraR3 · 4:51

WSUBRobertsR1 · 3:08

WKORadzhabovR2 · 2:36

Historical Context

Dawson—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·14 fights

KO/TKO · R1 · 2:25 · Dec '25

8 SS (38%)·9 abs·0/2 td·1 kd taken

Diego FerreiraVeteran

U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25

56 SS (57%)·41 abs·6/11 td·650s ctrl

KO/TKO · R2 · 1:42 · Oct '24

44 SS (49%)·5 abs·2/4 td·309s ctrl

U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24

46 SS (66%)·12 abs·3/3 td·826s ctrl

King GreenVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO · R1 · 0:33 · Oct '23

0 SS (0%)·7 abs·1 kd taken

U-DEC · R3 · Jul '23

30 SS (53%)·13 abs·3/5 td·744s ctrl·1 sub att

Rebecki—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·7 fights

M-DEC · R3 · Oct '25

72 SS (45%)·82 abs·3/12 td·303s ctrl

U-DEC · R3 · Aug '25

114 SS (43%)·92 abs·2/6 td·83s ctrl

S-DEC · R3 · Oct '24

71 SS (49%)·61 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·144s ctrl·1 kd

Diego FerreiraVeteran

KO/TKO · R3 · 4:51 · May '24

52 SS (38%)·123 abs·4/5 td·3 td taken·146s ctrl·1 kd

SUB · R1 · 3:08 · Nov '23

10 SS (63%)·2 abs·2/2 td·134s ctrl·1 sub att

KO/TKO · R2 · 2:36 · Jun '23

54 SS (57%)·19 abs·1/1 td·117s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att