Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov

Matchup Analysis·Welterweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland7 / 13

←Gautier vs Diaz Dawson vs Rebecki→

Red Corner

Joel Alvarez

“El Fenomeno”

23-310 UFCLast7mo ago

Pressure Fighter

Hot Streak

High Variance

Early Chaos

6'3"+3"ht·77"+2"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age

Welterweight170 lbs

Blue Corner

Yaroslav Amosov

29-11 UFCLast5mo ago

6'0"ht·75"reach·Orthodoxstance·32age

Alvarez 39%

61% Amosov

Polymarket

◈

Uneven DataAmosov has 1 UFC fight on record.

OutcomeFinish Likely

Uneven Data

Striking—

Decision—

Grappling—

KO Adv.—

Sub Adv.AlvarezSlight edge

Durability—

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

—

Alvarez

+1.71

Amosov

+1.23

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

—

Alvarez

—

Amosov

—

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

—

Alvarez

63%

Amosov

—

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

—

Alvarez

Durable

Amosov

Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

High

Alvarez4.78SLpM

SLpM2.78Amosov

7.6

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

Amosov

AlvarezOutput Drops Late-22% R1→R3

Amosov—

Finish History

Alvarez

KO/TKO ×4Sub ×3

Finish rate (wins)

88%

7/8

Stopped rate (losses)

50%

1/2

Amosov

Sub ×1

Finish rate (wins)

100%

1/1

Stopped rate (losses)

—

Fighter Context

Alvarez·UFC 8-2·4 KO · 3 Sub · 1 Dec·1 KO loss · 1 Dec loss

Amosov·UFC 1-0·1 Sub

Sufficient UFC sample.
Full breakdown in edge cards above.

Pre-UFC28-1

Win method

9 KO/TKO11 Sub8 Dec

Loss method

1 KO/TKO

Avg opponent wins8.7

Total fight time81.0 min

Early finish rate60%

Edge & Exposure

Alvarez

EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Amosov

Insufficient UFC sample for a fighter read.

Opposition Quality

Alvarez8–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

6–2

Record (8)

+2.7

Str Diff/Min

83%

Finish (W)

Amosov1–0UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks

AlvarezWelterweightAmosov

92nd

Striking Differential

—

14th

Grappling Threat

—

74th

Round Win Rate

—

15th

TD Defense

—

66th

Durability

—

84th

Finishing Rate

—

Recent Form

Alvarez

Stat

Amosov

6.504.78 career

↑1.72

SLpMOutput

—

2.613.07 career

↓0.46

SApMAbsorbed

—

0.961.10 career

↓0.14

Sub AttAttempts/15m

—

Stat Breakdown

Striking

AlvarezAmosov1 fight

Div avg

Sig. Strikes / Min

4.78

2.78

Str. Accuracy

55%

47%

Sig. Absorbed / min

3.07

1.55

Str. Defense

54%

CQ KO Power

0.27

—

AlvarezStrike DistributionAmosov

By Target

69%

Head

33%

20%

Body

11%

Leg

67%

By Position

74%

Distance

89%

12%

Clinch

14%

Ground

11%

Sig Strikes

Alvarez

38avg landed / fight

Avg Fight Time

7.9 min

Goes Dist

20%

Amosov

9avg landed / fight

Avg Fight Time

3.2 min

Goes Dist

Historical Context

Alvarez — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Vicente LuqueElite

U-DEC

Oct '25

89 SS (60%)·30 abs·1/1 td·390s ctrl·1 sub att

Drakkar KloseVeteran

KO/TKO

R12:48

Dec '24

20 SS (83%)·7 abs·1 td taken

Elves Brener

KO/TKO

R33:36

Aug '24

95 SS (67%)·45 abs·0/1 td·51s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att

Marc Diakiese

SUB

R24:26

Jul '23

42 SS (56%)·20 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·86s ctrl·1 sub att

Arman Tsarukyan

KO/TKO

R21:57

Feb '22

7 SS (70%)·36 abs·2 td taken

Thiago Moises

KO/TKO

R13:01

Nov '21

44 SS (60%)·11 abs

View full fight log →

Amosov — Fight History

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·1 fight

Neil MagnyElite

SUB

R13:14

Dec '25

9 SS (47%)·5 abs·1/2 td·116s ctrl·1 sub att

Pre-UFC Fights·29 fights

Curtis Millender21-10

SUBR1Mar 2025

Jason Jackson16-4

KO/TKOR3Nov 2023

Logan Storley14-1

DECFeb 2023

Douglas Lima32-8

DECJun 2021

Logan Storley11-0

DECNov 2020

View full fight log →

Matchup·WW·3R

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

7/13←→

Red Corner

Joel Alvarez

“El Fenomeno”

23-310 UFC7mo ago

6'3"+3"ht77"+2"reachOrthodox33 yrs

VS·WW·3R

Blue Corner

Yaroslav Amosov

29-11 UFC5mo ago

6'0"ht75"reachOrthodox32 yrs

Polymarket

Alvarez 39%61% Amosov

◈

Uneven Data Amosov has 1 UFC fight on record.

Finish LikelyUneven Data

Striking—

Decision—

Grappling—

Durability—

KO Adv.—

Sub Adv.AlvarezSlight edge

Fighter Context

Alvarez·UFC 8-2·4 KO · 3 Sub · 1 Dec·1 KO loss · 1 Dec loss

Sufficient UFC sample.
Full breakdown in edge cards above.

Amosov·UFC 1-0·1 Sub

Pre-UFC28-1

Win method

9 KO/TKO11 Sub8 Dec

Loss method

1 KO/TKO

Avg opponent wins8.7

Total fight time81.0 min

Early finish rate60%

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

—

Alvarez+1.71

Amosov+1.23

CQGrappling

—

Alvarez—

Amosov—

CQDecision

—

Alvarez63%

Amosov—

CQDurability

—

Alvarez78Durable

Amosov—

CQCardio

—

AlvarezOutput Drops Late

Amosov—

CQPace Index

High

Alvarez4.78SLpM

Amosov2.78SLpM

7.6

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Alvarez

KO/TKO ×4Sub ×3

Finish Rate (Wins)

88%

7/8

Stopped Rate (Losses)

50%

1/2

Amosov

Sub ×1

Finish Rate (Wins)

100%

1/1

Stopped Rate (Losses)

—

Opposition Quality

Alvarez8–2UFC

Amosov1–0UFC

vs. Winning-Record

6–2n=8

+2.7strike diff/min

—

Division Percentile Ranks

AlvarezAmosov

92ndStriking Diff—

14thGrappling—

74thRound Win Rate—

15thTD Defense—

66thDurability—

84thFinish Rate—

Recent Form

Alvarez

Stat

Amosov

6.50

4.78 career

↑1.72

SLpMOutput

—

2.61

3.07 career

↓0.46

SApMAbsorbed

—

0.96

1.10 career

↓0.14

SubAtt/15m

—

Stat Breakdown

Alvarez

| div avg

Amosov

1 fight

Sig. Strikes / Min

4.78

2.78

Str. Accuracy

55%

47%

Sig. Absorbed / Min

3.07

1.55

Str. Defense

54%

CQ KO Power

0.27

—

Strike Distribution

By Target

69%

Head

33%

20%

Body

11%

Leg

67%

By Position

74%

Distance

89%

12%

Clinch

14%

Ground

11%

Sig Strikes

Alvarez

38avg landed

Luque

Klose

Brener

Diakiese

Tsarukyan

Avg Fight Time

7.9 min

Goes Dist

20%

Amosov

9avg landed

Magny

Avg Fight Time

3.2 min

Goes Dist

Historical Context

Alvarez—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Vicente LuqueElite

U-DEC · R3 · Oct '25

89 SS (60%)·30 abs·1/1 td·390s ctrl·1 sub att

Drakkar KloseVeteran

KO/TKO · R1 · 2:48 · Dec '24

20 SS (83%)·7 abs·1 td taken

Elves Brener

KO/TKO · R3 · 3:36 · Aug '24

95 SS (67%)·45 abs·0/1 td·51s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att

Marc Diakiese

SUB · R2 · 4:26 · Jul '23

42 SS (56%)·20 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·86s ctrl·1 sub att

Arman Tsarukyan

KO/TKO · R2 · 1:57 · Feb '22

7 SS (70%)·36 abs·2 td taken

Thiago Moises

KO/TKO · R1 · 3:01 · Nov '21

44 SS (60%)·11 abs

View full fight log →

Amosov—Fight History

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·1 fight

Neil MagnyElite

SUB · R1 · 3:14 · Dec '25

9 SS (47%)·5 abs·1/2 td·116s ctrl·1 sub att

Pre-UFC Fights·29 fights

Curtis Millender21-10

SUBR1Mar 2025

Jason Jackson16-4

KO/TKOR3Nov 2023

Logan Storley14-1

DECFeb 2023

Douglas Lima32-8

DECJun 2021

Logan Storley11-0

DECNov 2020

View full fight log →