Fighter Profile›Lightweight

“The Problem”

Chris Duncan

15-38 UFC

Wrestler

Form

Title Fight

Early Chaos

Output Builds Late

5'10"ht·71"reach·Orthodoxstance·32age

Last fightLRenato Moicano·SUB·R2·this month

Fighter Context

6–2UFC·

0KO

3Sub

3Dec

8.7min/fight

77UFC min

vs. Winning-Record Opps

5–2(7 fights)

40%finish rate

-0.1str diff/min

CQ Key Stats

Striking Differential

+0.26

Neutral

51%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat

0.378

Strong

83%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability

Ironclad

91%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate

50%

Average

45%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Duncan

Blitzer

Lightweight avg

Sig. Strikes / Min4.83

Str. Accuracy45%

321UFC landed/695attempted

Sig. Absorbed / min

+0.4 vs avg4.57

Str. Defense50%

KD Rate / fight0.25

2UFC knockdowns

KD Absorbed / fightNone on record

CQ KO Power

Average48%ile0.62

Strike Distribution

By Target

Head

61%

Body

22%

Leg

18%

By Position

Distance83%

Clinch7%

Ground11%

Sig. Strikes by Round

	Round 18 rounds	Round 25 rounds	Round 33 rounds
Avg. Landed	17	16	34
Avg. Absorbed	18	16	23
Avg. Net	-1	0	+11

Grappling

Duncan

Control Wrestler

·100s ctrlAverage Control

Lightweight avg

Offense

TD Landed / 15 Min2.92

TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY6.88

TD Accuracy40%

13UFC landed/32attempted

Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.60

3UFC wins/3attempted

Defense

Solid TD Def

TD Defense55%

10UFC defended/18opp. attempts

Sub Defense

Sub Liability

Finishing

Finish Rate

50%

Average

div avg 52%

How They Lose

2UFC losses

Win Breakdown

KO / TKO0 / 6

Submission3 / 6

Decision3 / 6

KD → Finish

0/2Low

Loss Breakdown

KO / TKO0 / 2

Submission2 / 2

Decision0 / 2

Loss Pattern

2 of 2 losses by finish in R1–R2

Submission hunter. 3 subs, all inside R1-R2

Finish Round Distribution

SUB W

SUB L

Cards & Decisions

Recovery Rate

—

More data needed.

Decision Margin

1.4pts

W3 dec

—

L0 dec

field avg 1.95 pts

Decision Types

2UD

1SD

0MD

33%split rate

Career Trajectory

Win

Loss

D/NC

Elite opp (15+ wins)

Veteran opp (8+ wins)

sig. strikes trending up. Averaging 6 more in second half of career

8 UFC fights · hover for details · colored line = 3-fight rolling avg

Pace & Cardio

Output Builds Late

Output

Absorbed

Diff

R1n=8

R2n=5

R3n=3

Outputsig strikes / min

4.2

3.7

6.9

Absorbedsig strikes / min

4.4

3.7

4.7

Diff

-0.2

+0.0

+2.2

Per-round averages across career · partial final rounds included at actual elapsed time · rounds below 5 min. career total suppressed · dashed lines = division avg

Last 8 Fights — Trend

▲Absorbed+50%L3

Last 8 UFC fights · Absorbed & Strike Diff = index vs career avg (1.0 = avg, 0 = breakeven) · Orange dots = KDs absorbed

Elite oppVeteran opp

Duncan — 8 UFC Fights

Result

Method

8 fights

Renato MoicanoVeteran

TITLE

SUB R2 · 3:14Apr '26

·27 SS (44%)·21 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken

Terrance McKinney

SUB R1 · 2:30Dec '25

·38 SS (69%)·31 abs·1/2 td·70s ctrl·1 kd landed·1 sub att

Mateusz Rebecki

U-DEC R3Aug '25

-22

·92 SS (41%)·114 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·27s ctrl

Jordan Vucenic

SUB R2 · 3:42Mar '25

-1

·15 SS (38%)·16 abs·4/5 td·1 td taken·337s ctrl·1 kd landed·1 sub att

Bolaji Oki

SUB R1 · 3:34Sep '24

-18

·10 SS (40%)·28 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·1 sub att

Manuel Torres

SUB R1 · 1:46Feb '24

-2

·1 SS (50%)·3 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·40s ctrl

Yanal Ashmouz

U-DEC R3Jul '23

+50

·85 SS (41%)·35 abs·2/4 td·48s ctrl

Omar Morales

S-DEC R3Mar '23

·53 SS (64%)·47 abs·5/14 td·391s ctrl

Duncan — Prior Tracked Fights (2)

WCharlie CampbellDWCSKO/TKOR1Aug 2022

LViacheslav BorshchevDWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2021

All Fighters

Lightweight

“The Problem”

Chris Duncan

15-38 UFC

Form

5'10"ht·71"reach·Orthodoxstance·32age

Last fightLRenato Moicano·SUB·this month

Fighter Context

6–2UFC·

0KO

3Sub

3Dec

8.7min/fight

77UFC min

vs. Winning Record5–2

CQ Key Stats

Str. Differential

+0.26

51%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat

0.378

83%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability

91%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate

50%

45%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Duncan

Lightweight avg

Blitzer

Sig. Strikes / Min4.83

Str. Accuracy45%

321UFC landed/695attempted

Sig. Absorbed / Min

+0.4 vs avg4.57

Str. Defense50%

KD Rate / Fight0.25

2UFC knockdowns

KD Absorbed / FightNone on record

CQ KO Power

Average48%ile0.62

Strike Distribution

By Target

Head

61%

Body

22%

Leg

18%

By Position

Dist83%

Clinch7%

Ground11%

Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)

	R1 n=8	R2 n=5	R3 n=3
Landed	17	16	34
Absorbed	18	16	23
Net	-1	0	+11

Grappling

Duncan

Lightweight avg

Control Wrestler

100s ctrlAverage Control

Offense

TD Landed / 15 Min2.92

TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY6.88

TD Accuracy40%

13UFC landed/32attempted

Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.60

3UFC wins/3attempted

Defense

Solid TD Def

TD Defense55%

10UFC defended/18opp. attempts

Sub Defense2 loss / 2 attempts

Finishing

Finish Rate

50%

Average

Win Methods

0KO/TKO

3Sub

3Dec

Loss Methods

0KO/TKO

2Sub

0Dec

Finish Round Distribution

Sub (W)

Sub (L)

Cards & Decisions

Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.

—More data needed.

Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.

1.4pts

W3 dec

—

L0 dec

field avg 1.95 pts

Decision Types

2UD

1SD

0MD

33%split rate

Career Trajectory chart available on desktop.

Pace & Cardio

Output Builds Late

Output

Absorbed

Diff

R1n=8

R2n=5

R3n=3

Outputsig strikes / min

4.2

3.7

6.9

Absorbedsig strikes / min

4.4

3.7

4.7

Diff

-0.2

+0.0

+2.2

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Duncan — UFC Fight Log

Renato MoicanoVeteranTITLE

SUB·R2·Apr '26

27 SS (44%)·21 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken

Terrance McKinney

SUB·R1·Dec '25

38 SS (69%)·31 abs·1/2 td·70s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub

Mateusz Rebecki

U-DEC·R3·Aug '25

92 SS (41%)·114 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·27s ctrl

Jordan Vucenic

SUB·R2·Mar '25

15 SS (38%)·16 abs·4/5 td·1 td taken·337s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub

Bolaji Oki

SUB·R1·Sep '24

10 SS (40%)·28 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·1 sub

Manuel Torres

SUB·R1·Feb '24

1 SS (50%)·3 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·40s ctrl

Yanal Ashmouz

U-DEC·R3·Jul '23

85 SS (41%)·35 abs·2/4 td·48s ctrl

Omar Morales

S-DEC·R3·Mar '23

53 SS (64%)·47 abs·5/14 td·391s ctrl

Duncan — Prior Tracked Fights (2)

WCharlie CampbellDWCSKO/TKOR1Aug 2022

LViacheslav BorshchevDWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2021

Round 18 rounds

Round 25 rounds

Round 33 rounds

Avg. Landed

Avg. Absorbed

Avg. Net

-1

+11

n=8

n=5

n=3

Landed

Absorbed

Net

-1

+11