Matchup Analysis·Lightweight Bout
Red Corner
Jim Miller
“A-10”
38-19(1 NC)46 UFCLast1.1yr ago
Balanced
Declining
Title Fight
2× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
High Wear
5'8"ht·71"+3"reach·Southpawstance·42age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner
Jared Gordon
“Flash”
21-8(1 NC)17 UFCLast8mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
Output Builds Late
High Wear
5'9"ht·68"reach·Orthodoxstance·375yrage
Signals2 signals
SUBMISSION
Miller actively hunts submissions on the ground.
AGE GAP
Miller is 5 years older than Gordon.
CQ Core Edges
Miller
-0.52
Gordon
+1.50
Miller
0.60
Gordon
0.93
Miller
45%
Gordon
65%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Miller
100
IroncladGordon
45
Average2 KO lossesKO losses4 KO losses
0.07KD / fight0.18
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Miller2.92SLpM
+SLpM5.64Gordon
8.6
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
MillerOutput Holds Steady-16% R1→R3
GordonOutput Builds Late+55% R1→R3
Finish History
Miller
KO/TKO ×6Sub ×13
Finish rate (wins)
70%
19/27
Stopped rate (losses)
28%
5/18
Gordon
KO/TKO ×3
Finish rate (wins)
33%
3/9
Stopped rate (losses)
71%
5/7
Edge & Exposure
Miller
EdgeHigh Finisher
Finishes the majority of opponents. Gets the stoppage when ahead on the scorecards.
EdgeSub Threat
Elite submission attempt rate. Consistently hunts finishes on the mat.
ExposureMileage Risk
Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.
Gordon
EdgeStriking Dominant
Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
Opposition Quality
Miller27–18UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
16–17
Record (33)
-0.7
Str Diff/Min
56%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)+30% step-up
6–8
Record (14)
-0.9
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
2–0
Record (2)
+0.2
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Gordon9–7UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–7
Record (13)
-0.3
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)+28% step-up
1–2
Record (4)
-0.8
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
Not enough qualifying fights
Division Percentile Ranks
MillerLightweightGordon
27th
Striking Differential
89th63rd
Grappling Threat
59th30th
Round Win Rate
81st17th
TD Defense
33rd98th
Durability
23rd71st
Finishing Rate
17thRecent Form
Miller
Stat
Gordon
2.442.92 career
↓0.48
SLpMOutput
↑1.22
6.865.64 career
6.813.44 career
⚠↑3.37
SApMAbsorbed
⚠↑3.65
7.794.14 career
0.463.34 career
⚠↓2.88
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑2.78
8.215.43 career
1.371.70 career
↓0.33
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Miller46% distance
Finish 54%Decision 46%
Gordon47% distance
Finish 53%Decision 47%
Miller 46 UFC fights·Gordon 17 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Miller
10.0min
Gordon
10.9min
Combined Distance Rate
46%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger
Miller→Gordon
43
High
Striking Threat
KDs per 15 min0.20
KO finish rate22%
Gordon's Chin
KDs absorbed/fight0.18
KO loss rate57%
Gordon→Miller
27
Elevated
Striking Threat
KDs per 15 min0.16
KO finish rate33%
Miller's Chin
KDs absorbed/fight0.07
KO loss rate11%
Sub Danger
Miller→Gordon
62
Elite
Sub Threat
Sub att / 15 min1.70
Sub win rate48%
Gordon's Vulnerability
Sub loss rate14%
Gordon→Miller
12
Low
Sub Threat*
Sub att / 15 min0.00
Sub win rate0%
Miller's Vulnerability
Sub loss rate17%
No submission wins on record. Threat estimated from attempt volume.
MillerWin MethodGordon
22%
KO / TKO
33%
48%
Submission
0%
30%
Decision
67%
27 UFC wins · 6 KO · 13 Sub · 8 Dec9 UFC wins · 3 KO · 6 Dec
Miller
Loss Method
Gordon11%
KO / TKO
57%
17%
Submission
14%
72%
Decision
29%
18 UFC losses · 2 KO · 3 Sub · 13 Dec7 UFC losses · 4 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec
Miller25 stoppages · 8 KO · 16 Sub
R1
14
R2
7
R3
4
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WSubDamon JacksonR1 · 2:44
WSubGabriel BenitezR3 · 3:25
WKOJesse ButlerR1 · 0:23
WSubDonald CerroneR2 · 1:32
WKONikolas MottaR2 · 1:58
Gordon9 stoppages · 7 KO · 1 Sub
R1
5
R2
1
R3
3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKORafa GarciaR3 · 2:27
WKOThiago MoisesR1 · 3:37
WKOMark MadsenR1 · 4:42
NCFinKing GreenR1 · 4:35
LSubGrant DawsonR3 · 4:11
Historical Context
Miller — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
13 SS (37%)·21 abs·1/1 td·8 td taken·99s ctrl·2 sub att
10 SS (42%)·16 abs·1 sub att
57 SS (40%)·186 abs·1 td taken·1 kd taken
80 SS (57%)·80 abs·2/2 td·235s ctrl·1 sub att
3 SS (60%)·1 abs·1 kd
67 SS (36%)·108 abs·0/1 td·40s ctrl·1 sub att
Gordon — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
65 SS (35%)·91 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·9s ctrl·1 kd taken
7 SS (54%)·5 abs·1/1 td·156s ctrl·1 kd
141 SS (47%)·146 abs·0/13 td·169s ctrl
36 SS (55%)·35 abs·19s ctrl·1 kd
17 SS (32%)·23 abs·0/1 td
60 SS (58%)·63 abs·3/6 td·388s ctrl
Common Opponents
Charles OliveiraSame result
L
Miller
Sub·R1·2018
L
Gordon
KO/TKO·R1·2019
Joe SoleckiSplit result
L
Miller
UD·R3·2021
W
Gordon
SD·R3·2021
King GreenSplit result
L
Miller
UD·R3·2024
NC
Gordon
Could ·R1·2023