Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio

Matchup Analysis·Middleweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland10 / 13

←Miller vs Gordon Sabatini vs Gomis→

Red Corner

Roman Kopylov

14-511 UFCLast6mo ago

Pressure Fighter

Declining

High Variance

Moderate Wear

6'0"ht·75"reach·Southpawstance·33age

Middleweight185 lbs

Blue Corner

Marco Tulio

“Matuto”

14-23 UFCLast6mo ago

Pressure Fighter

6'0"ht·74"reach·Orthodoxstance·31age

Kopylov 37%

63% Tulio

Polymarket

OutcomeElevated Finish Risk

Tulio · KO Vulnerability

StrikingTulioDominant

Decision—

GrapplingKopylovDominant

KO Adv.KopylovDominant

Sub Adv.TulioClear edge

DurabilityKopylov

Signals

1 signal

SOUTHPAW

Kopylov is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Kopylov natural angle advantages at range.

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

Tulio

Kopylov

-0.59

Tulio

+4.11

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

Kopylov

1.14

Tulio

0.17

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

—

Kopylov

45%

Tulio

—

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

Kopylov

Ironclad

Tulio

Average

0 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss

0.09KD / fight0.33

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

Extreme

Kopylov4.59SLpM

SLpM6.69Tulio

11.3

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

—

KopylovOutput Holds Steady+18% R1→R3

TulioEarly Finisher

Finish History

Kopylov

KO/TKO ×5

Finish rate (wins)

83%

5/6

Stopped rate (losses)

40%

2/5

Tulio

KO/TKO ×2

Finish rate (wins)

100%

2/2

Stopped rate (losses)

100%

1/1

Edge & Exposure

Kopylov

EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

Tulio

EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

ExposureChin Question

KO/TKO vulnerability is above division average. A clean power shot carries more consequence here.

Opposition Quality

Kopylov6–5UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

4–5

Record (9)

-0.6

Str Diff/Min

75%

Finish (W)

Tulio2–1UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks

KopylovMiddleweightTulio

27th

Striking Differential

99th

53rd

Grappling Threat

38th

36th

Round Win Rate

—

93rd

TD Defense

1st

95th

Durability

24th

67th

Finishing Rate

86th

Recent Form

Kopylov

Stat

Tulio

5.114.59 career

↑0.52

SLpMOutput

↑2.62

9.316.69 career

7.365.18 career

⚠↑2.18

SApMAbsorbed

↓0.24

2.342.58 career

2.672.38 career

↑0.29

TD AttAttempts/15m

↑0.00

3.813.81 career

Stat Breakdown

Finishes

Outcome Signal

Elevated Finish Risk

Kopylov36% distance

Finish 64%Decision 36%

Tulio0% distance

Finish 100%Decision 0%

Kopylov 11 UFC fights·Tulio 3 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Kopylov

12.0min

Tulio

6.6min

Combined Distance Rate

29%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Kopylov→Tulio

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.68

KO finish rate83%

Tulio's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.33

KO loss rate100%

Tulio→Kopylov

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min2.29

KO finish rate100%

Kopylov's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.09

KO loss rate0%

Sub Danger

Kopylov→Tulio

Minimal

Sub Threat*

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Tulio's Vulnerability*

Sub loss rate0%

No sub history on either side. Estimated from volume and baseline risk.

Tulio→Kopylov

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate0%

Kopylov's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate40%

KopylovWin MethodTulio

83%

KO / TKO

100%

Submission

17%

Decision

6 UFC wins · 5 KO · 1 Dec2 UFC wins · 2 KO

Kopylov

Loss Method

Tulio

KO / TKO

100%

40%

Submission

60%

Decision

5 UFC losses · 2 Sub · 3 Dec1 UFC loss · 1 KO

Kopylov7 stoppages · 5 KO · 2 Sub

KO Win

Sub Loss

All stoppages

WKOChris CurtisR3 · 4:59

LSubAnthony HernandezR2 · 3:23

WKOJosh FremdR2 · 4:44

WKOClaudio RibeiroR2 · 0:33

WKOPunahele SorianoR2 · 3:19

Tulio3 stoppages · 3 KO

KO Win

KO Loss

All stoppages

LKOChristian Leroy DuncanR2 · 3:20

WKOTresean GoreR2 · 3:16

WKOIhor PotieriaR1 · 3:04

Historical Context

Kopylov — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Gregory RodriguesVeteran

U-DEC

Nov '25

52 SS (50%)·90 abs·2/2 td·35s ctrl

Paulo Costa

U-DEC

Jul '25

48 SS (46%)·99 abs·1 kd taken

Chris Curtis

KO/TKO

R34:59

Jan '25

130 SS (42%)·142 abs·1/6 td·49s ctrl·1 kd

Cesar Almeida

S-DEC

Jun '24

41 SS (58%)·58 abs·5/9 td·519s ctrl·1 kd

Anthony Hernandez

SUB

R23:23

Feb '24

35 SS (61%)·34 abs·3 td taken

Josh Fremd

KO/TKO

R24:44

Sep '23

49 SS (58%)·38 abs·1 kd

View full fight log →

Tulio — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·3 fights

Christian Leroy Duncan

KO/TKO

R23:20

Nov '25

27 SS (47%)·23 abs·2/5 td·1 td taken·153s ctrl·1 kd taken

Tresean Gore

KO/TKO

R23:16

Apr '25

127 SS (73%)·17 abs·43s ctrl·2 kd

Ihor Potieria

KO/TKO

R13:04

Jan '25

29 SS (54%)·6 abs·26s ctrl·1 kd

Tracked Fights·2 fights

WMatthieu Duclos

DWCSKO/TKOR2Aug 2024

WYousri Belgaroui

DWCSU-DECR3Aug 2023

View full fight log →

Matchup·MW·3R

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

10/13←→

Red Corner

Roman Kopylov

14-511 UFC6mo ago

6'0"ht75"reachSouthpaw33 yrs

VS·MW·3R

Blue Corner

Marco Tulio

“Matuto”

14-23 UFC6mo ago

6'0"ht74"reachOrthodox31 yrs

Polymarket

Kopylov 37%63% Tulio

Elevated Finish RiskTulio · KO Vulnerability

StrikingTulioDominant

Decision—

GrapplingKopylovDominant

DurabilityKopylov

KO Adv.KopylovDominant

Sub Adv.TulioClear edge

Signals

SOUTHPAWKopylov is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

Tulio

Kopylov-0.59

Tulio+4.11

CQGrappling

Kopylov

Kopylov1.14

Tulio0.17

CQDecision

—

Kopylov45%

Tulio—

CQDurability

Kopylov

Kopylov97Ironclad

Tulio46Average

CQCardio

—

KopylovOutput Holds Steady

TulioEarly Finisher

CQPace Index

Extreme

Kopylov4.59SLpM

Tulio6.69SLpM

11.3

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Kopylov

KO/TKO ×5

Finish Rate (Wins)

83%

5/6

Stopped Rate (Losses)

40%

2/5

Tulio

KO/TKO ×2

Finish Rate (Wins)

100%

2/2

Stopped Rate (Losses)

100%

1/1

Opposition Quality

Kopylov6–5UFC

Tulio2–1UFC

vs. Winning-Record

4–5n=9

-0.6strike diff/min

—

Division Percentile Ranks

KopylovTulio

27thStriking Diff99th

53rdGrappling38th

36thRound Win Rate—

93rdTD Defense1st

95thDurability24th

67thFinish Rate86th

Recent Form

Kopylov

Stat

Tulio

5.11

4.59 career

↑0.52

SLpMOutput

↑2.62

9.31

6.69 career

7.36

5.18 career

↑2.18

SApMAbsorbed

↓0.24

2.34

2.58 career

2.67

2.38 career

↑0.29

TD AttAtt/15m

↑0.00

3.81

3.81 career

Stat Breakdown

Outcome SignalElevated Finish Risk

Kopylov36% distance

Finish 64%Decision 36%

Tulio0% distance

Finish 100%Decision 0%

Kopylov 11 UFC fights·Tulio 3 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Kopylov

12.0min

Tulio

6.6min

Combined Distance Rate

29%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Kopylov→Tulio

61Elite

Threat

KD / 15 min0.68

KO rate83%

Tulio's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.33

KO loss rate100%

Tulio→Kopylov

34Elevated

Threat

KD / 15 min2.29

KO rate100%

Kopylov's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.09

KO loss rate0%

Sub Danger

Kopylov→Tulio

7Minimal

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.00

Sub win rate0%

Tulio's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

Tulio→Kopylov

29Elevated

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.30

Sub win rate0%

Kopylov's Vuln

Sub loss rate40%

KopylovWinTulio

83%

100%

Sub

17%

Dec

6 wins5 KO1 Dec

2 KO2 wins

KopylovLossTulio

100%

40%

Sub

60%

Dec

5 losses2 Sub3 Dec

1 KO1 loss

Round Distribution

Kopylov

7 stoppages5 KO2 Sub

All Stoppages

WKOCurtisR3 · 4:59

LSUBHernandezR2 · 3:23

WKOFremdR2 · 4:44

WKORibeiroR2 · 0:33

Tulio

3 stoppages3 KO

All Stoppages

LKODuncanR2 · 3:20

WKOGoreR2 · 3:16

WKOPotieriaR1 · 3:04

Historical Context

Kopylov—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Gregory RodriguesVeteran

U-DEC · R3 · Nov '25

52 SS (50%)·90 abs·2/2 td·35s ctrl

Paulo Costa

U-DEC · R3 · Jul '25

48 SS (46%)·99 abs·1 kd taken

Chris Curtis

KO/TKO · R3 · 4:59 · Jan '25

130 SS (42%)·142 abs·1/6 td·49s ctrl·1 kd

Cesar Almeida

S-DEC · R3 · Jun '24

41 SS (58%)·58 abs·5/9 td·519s ctrl·1 kd

Anthony Hernandez

SUB · R2 · 3:23 · Feb '24

35 SS (61%)·34 abs·3 td taken

Josh Fremd

KO/TKO · R2 · 4:44 · Sep '23

49 SS (58%)·38 abs·1 kd

View full fight log →

Tulio—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·3 fights

Christian Leroy Duncan

KO/TKO · R2 · 3:20 · Nov '25

27 SS (47%)·23 abs·2/5 td·1 td taken·153s ctrl·1 kd taken

Tresean Gore

KO/TKO · R2 · 3:16 · Apr '25

127 SS (73%)·17 abs·43s ctrl·2 kd

Ihor Potieria

KO/TKO · R1 · 3:04 · Jan '25

29 SS (54%)·6 abs·26s ctrl·1 kd

Tracked Fights·2 fights

WMatthieu Duclos

DWCSKO/TKOR2Aug 2024

WYousri Belgaroui

DWCSU-DECR3Aug 2023

View full fight log →