Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley

Matchup Analysis·Welterweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland4 / 13

←Volkov vs Acosta Green vs Stephens→

Red Corner

Sean Brady

18-210 UFCLast6mo ago

Complete Fighter

Title Fight

2× 5R

Moderate Wear

5'10"ht·72"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age

Welterweight170 lbs

Blue Corner

Joaquin Buckley

“New Mansa”

21-716 UFCLast11mo ago

Balanced

2× Title

2× 5R

High Variance

Output Builds Late

High Wear

5'10"ht·76"+4"reach·Southpawstance·32age

Brady 62%

39% Buckley

Polymarket

OutcomeElevated Finish Risk

Brady · KO Vulnerability

Striking—

Decision—

GrapplingBradyDominant

KO Adv.BuckleyDominant

Sub Adv.BradySlight edge

Durability—

Signals

1 signal

SOUTHPAW

Buckley is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Buckley natural angle advantages at range.

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

—

Brady

+0.91

Buckley

+0.95

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

Brady

0.99

Buckley

0.22

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

—

Brady

76%

Buckley

62%

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

—

Brady

Average

Buckley

Average

2 KO lossesKO losses3 KO losses

0.10KD / fight0.25

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

High

Brady3.96SLpM

SLpM3.88Buckley

7.8

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

Buckley

BradyOutput Holds Steady-12% R1→R3

BuckleyOutput Builds Late+94% R1→R3

Finish History

Brady

Sub ×4

Finish rate (wins)

50%

4/8

Stopped rate (losses)

100%

2/2

Buckley

KO/TKO ×8

Finish rate (wins)

73%

8/11

Stopped rate (losses)

60%

3/5

Edge & Exposure

Brady

EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Buckley

EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

ExposureWear Concern

High accumulated UFC fight volume. Susceptible to opponents who apply pressure in later rounds.

Opposition Quality

Brady8–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

8–2

Record (10)

+0.3

Str Diff/Min

50%

Finish (W)

vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)

+15% step-up

6–1

Record (7)

+0.6

Str Diff/Min

50%

Finish (W)

vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

Not enough qualifying fights

Buckley11–5UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

9–4

Record (13)

+1.2

Str Diff/Min

67%

Finish (W)

vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)

-9% step-up

4–1

Record (5)

+1.5

Str Diff/Min

75%

Finish (W)

vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

1–1

Record (2)

+2.1

Str Diff/Min

100%

Finish (W)

Division Percentile Ranks

BradyWelterweightBuckley

67th

Striking Differential

70th

94th

Grappling Threat

71st

87th

Round Win Rate

72nd

86th

TD Defense

69th

32nd

Durability

33rd

29th

Finishing Rate

67th

Recent Form

Brady

Stat

Buckley

4.323.96 career

↑0.36

SLpMOutput

↓0.94

2.943.88 career

2.083.05 career

↓0.97

SApMAbsorbed

↓0.49

2.442.93 career

8.316.60 career

↑1.71

TD AttAttempts/15m

⚠↓1.10

2.313.41 career

0.330.90 career

↓0.57

Sub AttAttempts/15m

—

Stat Breakdown

Finishes

Outcome Signal

Elevated Finish Risk

Brady40% distance

Finish 60%Decision 40%

Buckley31% distance

Finish 69%Decision 31%

Brady 10 UFC fights·Buckley 16 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Brady

13.2min

Buckley

11.6min

Combined Distance Rate

35%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Brady→Buckley

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.11

KO finish rate0%

Buckley's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.25

KO loss rate60%

Buckley→Brady

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.73

KO finish rate73%

Brady's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.10

KO loss rate100%

Sub Danger

Brady→Buckley

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.90

Sub win rate50%

Buckley's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate0%

Buckley→Brady

Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.10

Sub win rate0%

Brady's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate0%

BradyWin MethodBuckley

KO / TKO

73%

50%

Submission

50%

Decision

27%

8 UFC wins · 4 Sub · 4 Dec11 UFC wins · 8 KO · 3 Dec

Brady

Loss Method

Buckley

100%

KO / TKO

60%

Submission

Decision

40%

2 UFC losses · 2 KO5 UFC losses · 3 KO · 2 Dec

Brady6 stoppages · 2 KO · 4 Sub

KO Loss

Sub Win

All stoppages

LKOMichael MoralesR1 · 3:27

WSubLeon EdwardsR4 · 1:39

WSubKelvin GastelumR3 · 1:43

LKOBelal MuhammadR2 · 4:47

WSubJake MatthewsR3 · 3:28

Buckley11 stoppages · 11 KO

KO Win

KO Loss

All stoppages

WKOColby CovingtonR3 · 4:42

WKOStephen ThompsonR3 · 2:17

WKOVicente LuqueR2 · 3:17

WKOAndre FialhoR2 · 4:15

LKOChris CurtisR2 · 2:49

Historical Context

Brady — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Michael Morales

KO/TKO

R13:27

Nov '25

8 SS (36%)·24 abs·0/1 td·1 kd taken

Leon EdwardsVeteran

SUB

R41:39

Mar '25

57 SS (61%)·23 abs·5/7 td·670s ctrl·1 sub att

Gilbert BurnsEliteTITLE

U-DEC

Sep '24

130 SS (60%)·47 abs·7/17 td·1 td taken·634s ctrl

Kelvin GastelumVeteran

SUB

R31:43

Dec '23

14 SS (58%)·18 abs·5/5 td·546s ctrl·3 sub att

Belal MuhammadVeteran

KO/TKO

R24:47

Oct '22

58 SS (49%)·80 abs·0/5 td

Michael ChiesaVeteran

U-DEC

Nov '21

18 SS (43%)·29 abs·5/8 td·1 td taken·465s ctrl

View full fight log →

Buckley — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Kamaru UsmanEliteTITLE

U-DEC

Jun '25

44 SS (30%)·41 abs·4 td taken

Colby CovingtonVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO

R34:42

Dec '24

75 SS (50%)·37 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·78s ctrl·1 sub att

Stephen ThompsonVeteran

KO/TKO

R32:17

Oct '24

34 SS (37%)·49 abs·4/7 td·253s ctrl·1 kd

Nursulton Ruziboev

U-DEC

May '24

86 SS (55%)·31 abs·4/4 td·330s ctrl·1 kd

Vicente LuqueElite

KO/TKO

R23:17

Mar '24

55 SS (42%)·21 abs·49s ctrl

Alex MoronoVeteran

U-DEC

Oct '23

68 SS (39%)·40 abs·2/4 td·1 td taken·141s ctrl

View full fight log →

Matchup·WW·3R

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

4/13←→

Red Corner

Sean Brady

18-210 UFC6mo ago

5'10"ht72"reachOrthodox33 yrs

VS·WW·3R

Blue Corner

Joaquin Buckley

“New Mansa”

21-716 UFC11mo ago

5'10"ht76"+4"reachSouthpaw32 yrs

Polymarket

Brady 62%39% Buckley

Elevated Finish RiskBrady · KO Vulnerability

Striking—

Decision—

GrapplingBradyDominant

Durability—

KO Adv.BuckleyDominant

Sub Adv.BradySlight edge

Signals

SOUTHPAWBuckley is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

—

Brady+0.91

Buckley+0.95

CQGrappling

Brady

Brady0.99

Buckley0.22

CQDecision

—

Brady76%

Buckley62%

CQDurability

—

Brady56Average

Buckley57Average

CQCardio

Buckley

BradyOutput Holds Steady

BuckleyOutput Builds Late

CQPace Index

High

Brady3.96SLpM

Buckley3.88SLpM

7.8

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Brady

Sub ×4

Finish Rate (Wins)

50%

4/8

Stopped Rate (Losses)

100%

2/2

Buckley

KO/TKO ×8

Finish Rate (Wins)

73%

8/11

Stopped Rate (Losses)

60%

3/5

Opposition Quality

Brady8–2UFC

Buckley11–5UFC

vs. Winning-Record

8–2n=10

+0.3strike diff/min

9–4n=13

+1.2strike diff/min

vs. Veteran (≥8W)

6–1n=7

+0.6strike diff/min

4–1n=5

+1.5strike diff/min

vs. Elite (≥15W)

—

1–1n=2

+2.1strike diff/min

Division Percentile Ranks

BradyBuckley

67thStriking Diff70th

94thGrappling71st

87thRound Win Rate72nd

86thTD Defense69th

32ndDurability33rd

29thFinish Rate67th

Recent Form

Brady

Stat

Buckley

4.32

3.96 career

↑0.36

SLpMOutput

↓0.94

2.94

3.88 career

2.08

3.05 career

↓0.97

SApMAbsorbed

↓0.49

2.44

2.93 career

8.31

6.60 career

↑1.71

TD AttAtt/15m

↓1.10

2.31

3.41 career

0.33

0.90 career

↓0.57

SubAtt/15m

—

Stat Breakdown

Outcome SignalElevated Finish Risk

Brady40% distance

Finish 60%Decision 40%

Buckley31% distance

Finish 69%Decision 31%

Brady 10 UFC fights·Buckley 16 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Brady

13.2min

Buckley

11.6min

Combined Distance Rate

35%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Brady→Buckley

31Elevated

Threat

KD / 15 min0.11

KO rate0%

Buckley's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.25

KO loss rate60%

Buckley→Brady

62Elite

Threat

KD / 15 min0.73

KO rate73%

Brady's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.10

KO loss rate100%

Sub Danger

Brady→Buckley

20Low

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.90

Sub win rate50%

Buckley's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

Buckley→Brady

5Minimal

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.10

Sub win rate0%

Brady's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

BradyWinBuckley

73%

50%

Sub

50%

Dec

27%

8 wins4 Sub4 Dec

3 Dec8 KO11 wins

BradyLossBuckley

100%

60%

Sub

Dec

40%

2 losses2 KO

2 Dec3 KO5 losses

Round Distribution

Brady

6 stoppages2 KO4 Sub

All Stoppages

LKOMoralesR1 · 3:27

WSUBEdwardsR4 · 1:39

WSUBGastelumR3 · 1:43

LKOMuhammadR2 · 4:47

Buckley

11 stoppages11 KO

All Stoppages

WKOCovingtonR3 · 4:42

WKOThompsonR3 · 2:17

WKOLuqueR2 · 3:17

WKOFialhoR2 · 4:15

Historical Context

Brady—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Michael Morales

KO/TKO · R1 · 3:27 · Nov '25

8 SS (36%)·24 abs·0/1 td·1 kd taken

Leon EdwardsVeteran

SUB · R4 · 1:39 · Mar '25

57 SS (61%)·23 abs·5/7 td·670s ctrl·1 sub att

Gilbert BurnsEliteTITLE

U-DEC · R5 · Sep '24

130 SS (60%)·47 abs·7/17 td·1 td taken·634s ctrl

Kelvin GastelumVeteran

SUB · R3 · 1:43 · Dec '23

14 SS (58%)·18 abs·5/5 td·546s ctrl·3 sub att

Belal MuhammadVeteran

KO/TKO · R2 · 4:47 · Oct '22

58 SS (49%)·80 abs·0/5 td

Michael ChiesaVeteran

U-DEC · R3 · Nov '21

18 SS (43%)·29 abs·5/8 td·1 td taken·465s ctrl

View full fight log →

Buckley—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Kamaru UsmanEliteTITLE

U-DEC · R5 · Jun '25

44 SS (30%)·41 abs·4 td taken

Colby CovingtonVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO · R3 · 4:42 · Dec '24

75 SS (50%)·37 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·78s ctrl·1 sub att

Stephen ThompsonVeteran

KO/TKO · R3 · 2:17 · Oct '24

34 SS (37%)·49 abs·4/7 td·253s ctrl·1 kd

Nursulton Ruziboev

U-DEC · R3 · May '24

86 SS (55%)·31 abs·4/4 td·330s ctrl·1 kd

Vicente LuqueElite

KO/TKO · R2 · 3:17 · Mar '24

55 SS (42%)·21 abs·49s ctrl

Alex MoronoVeteran

U-DEC · R3 · Oct '23

68 SS (39%)·40 abs·2/4 td·1 td taken·141s ctrl

View full fight log →