Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta

Matchup Analysis·Heavyweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland3 / 13

←Van vs Taira Brady vs Buckley→

Red Corner

Alexander Volkov

“Drago”

39-1118 UFCLast6mo ago

Pressure Fighter

Aging Threat

7× Title

7× 5R

Moderate Wear

6'7"+3"ht·80"+2"reach·Orthodoxstance·37age

Heavyweight265 lbs

Blue Corner

Waldo Cortes Acosta

“Salsa Boy”

17-212 UFCLast3mo ago

Pressure Fighter

Early Chaos

Output Builds Late

6'4"ht·78"reach·Orthodoxstance·34age

Volkov 63%

38% Acosta

Polymarket

Outcome—

Striking—

Decision—

Grappling—

KO Adv.AcostaDominant

Sub Adv.—

Durability—

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

—

Volkov

+1.92

Acosta

+2.16

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

—

Volkov

0.16

Acosta

0.14

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

—

Volkov

63%

Acosta

77%

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

—

Volkov

Ironclad

Acosta

100

Ironclad

1 KO lossKO losses0 KO losses

0.11KD / fight0.00

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

Extreme

Volkov4.78SLpM

SLpM5.54Acosta

10.3

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

Acosta

VolkovOutput Holds Steady-5% R1→R3

AcostaOutput Builds Late+61% R1→R3

Finish History

Volkov

KO/TKO ×6Sub ×1

Finish rate (wins)

54%

7/13

Stopped rate (losses)

40%

2/5

Acosta

KO/TKO ×5

Finish rate (wins)

50%

5/10

Stopped rate (losses)

0/2

Edge & Exposure

Volkov

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Acosta

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Opposition Quality

Volkov13–5UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

11–5

Record (16)

+2.4

Str Diff/Min

55%

Finish (W)

vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)

+2% step-up

7–3

Record (10)

+3.2

Str Diff/Min

57%

Finish (W)

vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

Not enough qualifying fights

Acosta10–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

7–2

Record (9)

+1.8

Str Diff/Min

57%

Finish (W)

vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)

+8% step-up

4–1

Record (5)

+2.8

Str Diff/Min

50%

Finish (W)

vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

2–0

Record (2)

+1.9

Str Diff/Min

50%

Finish (W)

Division Percentile Ranks

VolkovHeavyweightAcosta

89th

Striking Differential

92nd

59th

Grappling Threat

51st

70th

Round Win Rate

91st

54th

TD Defense

67th

89th

Durability

98th

26th

Finishing Rate

22nd

Recent Form

Volkov

Stat

Acosta

3.244.78 career

⚠↓1.54

SLpMOutput

↓0.68

4.865.54 career

2.182.86 career

↓0.68

SApMAbsorbed

↓1.17

2.213.38 career

Stat Breakdown

Finishes

Volkov50% distance

Finish 50%Decision 50%

Acosta58% distance

Finish 42%Decision 58%

Volkov 18 UFC fights·Acosta 12 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Volkov

12.8min

Acosta

10.9min

Combined Distance Rate

53%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Volkov→Acosta

Low

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.26

KO finish rate46%

Acosta's Chin*

KDs absorbed/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

No KO vulnerability on record. Chin score is baseline estimate.

Acosta→Volkov

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.68

KO finish rate50%

Volkov's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.11

KO loss rate20%

Sub Danger

Volkov→Acosta

Minimal

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.20

Sub win rate8%

Acosta's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate0%

Acosta→Volkov

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.10

Sub win rate0%

Volkov's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate20%

VolkovWin MethodAcosta

46%

KO / TKO

50%

Submission

46%

Decision

50%

13 UFC wins · 6 KO · 1 Sub · 6 Dec10 UFC wins · 5 KO · 5 Dec

Volkov

Loss Method

Acosta

20%

KO / TKO

20%

Submission

60%

Decision

100%

5 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 3 Dec2 UFC losses · 2 Dec

Volkov9 stoppages · 7 KO · 2 Sub

KO Win

KO Loss

Sub Win

Sub Loss

All stoppages

WSubTai TuivasaR2 · 4:37

WKOAlexandr RomanovR1 · 2:16

WKOJairzinho RozenstruikR1 · 2:12

LSubTom AspinallR1 · 3:45

WKOAlistair OvereemR2 · 2:06

Acosta5 stoppages · 5 KO

KO Win

All stoppages

WKODerrick LewisR2 · 3:14

WKOShamil GazievR1 · 1:22

WKOAnte DelijaR1 · 3:59

WKORyan SpannR2 · 4:48

WKOLukasz BrzeskiR1 · 3:01

Historical Context

Volkov — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Jailton AlmeidaVeteran

S-DEC

Oct '25

24 SS (89%)·9 abs·7 td taken·177s ctrl

Ciryl GaneVeteran

S-DEC

Dec '24

39 SS (55%)·43 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·272s ctrl·1 sub att

Sergei Pavlovich

U-DEC

Jun '24

83 SS (52%)·46 abs

Tai TuivasaVeteran

SUB

R24:37

Sep '23

93 SS (65%)·28 abs·0/1 td·155s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att

Alexandr Romanov

KO/TKO

R12:16

Mar '23

12 SS (80%)·0 abs·63s ctrl

Jairzinho RozenstruikTITLE

KO/TKO

R12:12

Jun '22

21 SS (57%)·6 abs

View full fight log →

Acosta — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·12 fights

Derrick LewisElite

KO/TKO

R23:14

Jan '26

44 SS (71%)·8 abs·1/1 td·28s ctrl·1 kd

Shamil Gaziev

KO/TKO

R11:22

Nov '25

10 SS (48%)·6 abs·8s ctrl·2 kd

Ante Delija

KO/TKO

R13:59

Nov '25

12 SS (71%)·16 abs·97s ctrl·1 kd

Sergei Pavlovich

U-DEC

Aug '25

45 SS (38%)·61 abs

Serghei SpivacVeteran

U-DEC

Jun '25

110 SS (47%)·48 abs·2 td taken

Ryan SpannVeteran

KO/TKO

R24:48

Mar '25

66 SS (59%)·23 abs·0/1 td·57s ctrl·1 kd

View full fight log →

Common Opponents

Derrick LewisSplit result

Volkov

KO/TKO·R3·2018

Acosta

KO/TKO·R2·2026

Sergei PavlovichSplit result

Volkov

UD·R3·2024

Acosta

UD·R3·2025

Matchup·HW·3R

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

3/13←→

Red Corner

Alexander Volkov

“Drago”

39-1118 UFC6mo ago

6'7"+3"ht80"+2"reachOrthodox37 yrs

VS·HW·3R

Blue Corner

Waldo Cortes Acosta

“Salsa Boy”

17-212 UFC3mo ago

6'4"ht78"reachOrthodox34 yrs

Polymarket

Volkov 63%38% Acosta

Striking—

Decision—

Grappling—

Durability—

KO Adv.AcostaDominant

Sub Adv.—

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

—

Volkov+1.92

Acosta+2.16

CQGrappling

—

Volkov0.16

Acosta0.14

CQDecision

—

Volkov63%

Acosta77%

CQDurability

—

Volkov89Ironclad

Acosta100Ironclad

CQCardio

Acosta

VolkovOutput Holds Steady

AcostaOutput Builds Late

CQPace Index

Extreme

Volkov4.78SLpM

Acosta5.54SLpM

10.3

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Volkov

KO/TKO ×6Sub ×1

Finish Rate (Wins)

54%

7/13

Stopped Rate (Losses)

40%

2/5

Acosta

KO/TKO ×5

Finish Rate (Wins)

50%

5/10

Stopped Rate (Losses)

0/2

Opposition Quality

Volkov13–5UFC

Acosta10–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record

11–5n=16

+2.4strike diff/min

7–2n=9

+1.8strike diff/min

vs. Veteran (≥8W)

7–3n=10

+3.2strike diff/min

4–1n=5

+2.8strike diff/min

vs. Elite (≥15W)

—

2–0n=2

+1.9strike diff/min

Division Percentile Ranks

VolkovAcosta

89thStriking Diff92nd

59thGrappling51st

70thRound Win Rate91st

54thTD Defense67th

89thDurability98th

26thFinish Rate22nd

Recent Form

Volkov

Stat

Acosta

3.24

4.78 career

↓1.54

SLpMOutput

↓0.68

4.86

5.54 career

2.18

2.86 career

↓0.68

SApMAbsorbed

↓1.17

2.21

3.38 career

Stat Breakdown

Volkov50% distance

Finish 50%Decision 50%

Acosta58% distance

Finish 42%Decision 58%

Volkov 18 UFC fights·Acosta 12 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Volkov

12.8min

Acosta

10.9min

Combined Distance Rate

53%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Volkov→Acosta

23Low

Threat

KD / 15 min0.26

KO rate46%

Acosta's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.00

KO loss rate0%

Acosta→Volkov

44High

Threat

KD / 15 min0.68

KO rate50%

Volkov's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.11

KO loss rate20%

Sub Danger

Volkov→Acosta

10Minimal

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.20

Sub win rate8%

Acosta's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

Acosta→Volkov

16Low

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.10

Sub win rate0%

Volkov's Vuln

Sub loss rate20%

VolkovWinAcosta

46%

50%

Sub

46%

Dec

50%

13 wins6 KO1 Sub6 Dec

5 Dec5 KO10 wins

VolkovLossAcosta

20%

Sub

60%

Dec

100%

5 losses1 KO1 Sub3 Dec

2 Dec2 losses

Round Distribution

Volkov

9 stoppages7 KO2 Sub

All Stoppages

WSUBTuivasaR2 · 4:37

WKORomanovR1 · 2:16

WKORozenstruikR1 · 2:12

LSUBAspinallR1 · 3:45

Acosta

5 stoppages5 KO

All Stoppages

WKOLewisR2 · 3:14

WKOGazievR1 · 1:22

WKODelijaR1 · 3:59

WKOSpannR2 · 4:48

Historical Context

Volkov—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Jailton AlmeidaVeteran

S-DEC · R3 · Oct '25

24 SS (89%)·9 abs·7 td taken·177s ctrl

Ciryl GaneVeteran

S-DEC · R3 · Dec '24

39 SS (55%)·43 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·272s ctrl·1 sub att

Sergei Pavlovich

U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24

83 SS (52%)·46 abs

Tai TuivasaVeteran

SUB · R2 · 4:37 · Sep '23

93 SS (65%)·28 abs·0/1 td·155s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att

Alexandr Romanov

KO/TKO · R1 · 2:16 · Mar '23

12 SS (80%)·0 abs·63s ctrl

Jairzinho RozenstruikTITLE

KO/TKO · R1 · 2:12 · Jun '22

21 SS (57%)·6 abs

View full fight log →

Acosta—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·12 fights

Derrick LewisElite

KO/TKO · R2 · 3:14 · Jan '26

44 SS (71%)·8 abs·1/1 td·28s ctrl·1 kd

Shamil Gaziev

KO/TKO · R1 · 1:22 · Nov '25

10 SS (48%)·6 abs·8s ctrl·2 kd

Ante Delija

KO/TKO · R1 · 3:59 · Nov '25

12 SS (71%)·16 abs·97s ctrl·1 kd

Sergei Pavlovich

U-DEC · R3 · Aug '25

45 SS (38%)·61 abs

Serghei SpivacVeteran

U-DEC · R3 · Jun '25

110 SS (47%)·48 abs·2 td taken

Ryan SpannVeteran

KO/TKO · R2 · 4:48 · Mar '25

66 SS (59%)·23 abs·0/1 td·57s ctrl·1 kd

View full fight log →

Common Opponents

Derrick LewisSplit result

Volkov

KO/TKO·R3·2018

Acosta

KO/TKO·R2·2026

Sergei PavlovichSplit result

Volkov

UD·R3·2024

Acosta

UD·R3·2025