Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira

Matchup Analysis·Flyweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland2 / 13

←Chimaev vs Strickland Volkov vs Acosta→

Red Corner

Joshua Van

“The Fearless”

16-210 UFCLast5mo ago

Pressure Fighter

Hot Streak

Title Fight

Output Builds Late

Moderate Wear

5'5"ht·65"reach·Orthodoxstance·24age

Flyweight125 lbs

Blue Corner

Tatsuro Taira

“The Best”

18-19 UFCLast5mo ago

Wrestler

3× Title

3× 5R

High Variance

5'7"+2"ht·70"+5"reach·Orthodoxstance·26age

Van 40%

61% Taira

Polymarket

Outcome—

StrikingVanClear edge

Decision—

GrapplingTairaSlight edge

KO Adv.TairaDominant

Sub Adv.TairaClear edge

Durability—

Signals

1 signal

SUBMISSION

Taira actively hunts submissions on the ground.

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

Van

+2.45

Taira

+0.50

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

Taira

Van

0.46

Taira

0.59

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

—

Van

70%

Taira

77%

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

—

Van

Durable

Taira

Ironclad

1 KO lossKO losses0 KO losses

0.10KD / fight0.11

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

Extreme

Van8.84SLpM

SLpM2.94Taira

11.8

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

—

VanOutput Builds Late+92% R1→R3

TairaOutput Builds Late+49% R1→R3

Finish History

Van

KO/TKO ×3

Finish rate (wins)

33%

3/9

Stopped rate (losses)

100%

1/1

Taira

KO/TKO ×3Sub ×3

Finish rate (wins)

75%

6/8

Stopped rate (losses)

0/1

Edge & Exposure

Van

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Taira

EdgeHigh Finisher

Finishes the majority of opponents. Gets the stoppage when ahead on the scorecards.

EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

Opposition Quality

Van9–1UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

6–0

Record (6)

+3.3

Str Diff/Min

33%

Finish (W)

Taira8–1UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

6–1

Record (7)

+0.6

Str Diff/Min

100%

Finish (W)

Division Percentile Ranks

VanFlyweightTaira

97th

Striking Differential

66th

56th

Grappling Threat

87th

84th

Round Win Rate

94th

86th

TD Defense

24th

44th

Durability

94th

17th

Finishing Rate

74th

Recent Form

Van

Stat

Taira

11.348.84 career

↑2.50

SLpMOutput

↓0.94

2.002.94 career

10.036.39 career

⚠↑3.64

SApMAbsorbed

⚠↑1.09

3.532.44 career

—

TD AttAttempts/15m

↑2.63

9.356.72 career

—

Sub AttAttempts/15m

↓0.82

0.781.60 career

Stat Breakdown

Finishes

Van60% distance

Finish 40%Decision 60%

Taira33% distance

Finish 67%Decision 33%

Van 10 UFC fights·Taira 9 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Van

13.8min

Taira

10.7min

Combined Distance Rate

47%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Van→Taira

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.60

KO finish rate33%

Taira's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.11

KO loss rate0%

Taira→Van

High

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.47

KO finish rate38%

Van's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.10

KO loss rate100%

Sub Danger

Van→Taira

Minimal

Sub Threat*

Sub att / 15 min0.00

Sub win rate0%

Taira's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate0%

No submission wins on record. Threat estimated from attempt volume.

Taira→Van

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min1.60

Sub win rate38%

Van's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate0%

VanWin MethodTaira

33%

KO / TKO

38%

Submission

38%

67%

Decision

25%

9 UFC wins · 3 KO · 6 Dec8 UFC wins · 3 KO · 3 Sub · 2 Dec

Van

Loss Method

Taira

100%

KO / TKO

Submission

Decision

100%

1 UFC loss · 1 KO1 UFC loss · 1 Dec

Van4 stoppages · 4 KO

KO Win

KO Loss

All stoppages

WKOAlexandre PantojaR1 · 0:26

WKOBruno SilvaR3 · 4:01

LKOCharles JohnsonR3 · 0:20

WKOFelipe BunesR2 · 4:31

Taira6 stoppages · 3 KO · 3 Sub

KO Win

Sub Win

All stoppages

WKOBrandon MorenoR2 · 2:24

WSubHyunSung ParkR2 · 1:06

WKOAlex PerezR2 · 2:59

WKOCarlos HernandezR2 · 0:55

WSubJesus AguilarR1 · 4:20

Historical Context

Van — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Alexandre PantojaVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO

R10:26

Dec '25

2 SS (50%)·6 abs

Brandon Royval

U-DEC

Jun '25

204 SS (67%)·215 abs·9s ctrl·1 kd

Bruno Silva

KO/TKO

R34:01

Jun '25

125 SS (58%)·76 abs·1 td taken·61s ctrl·3 kd

Rei Tsuruya

U-DEC

Mar '25

59 SS (61%)·32 abs·4 td taken·50s ctrl

Cody Durden

U-DEC

Dec '24

165 SS (54%)·70 abs·2 td taken·20s ctrl

Edgar Chairez

U-DEC

Sep '24

118 SS (59%)·79 abs·3/3 td·266s ctrl

View full fight log →

Taira — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Brandon MorenoVeteran

KO/TKO

R22:24

Dec '25

28 SS (58%)·9 abs·1/4 td·267s ctrl

HyunSung ParkTITLE

SUB

R21:06

Aug '25

7 SS (64%)·3 abs·4/5 td·281s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att

Brandon RoyvalTITLE

S-DEC

Oct '24

42 SS (42%)·124 abs·6/15 td·3 td taken·733s ctrl·1 sub att

Alex PerezVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO

R22:59

Jun '24

31 SS (47%)·41 abs·2/2 td·1 td taken·48s ctrl

Carlos Hernandez

KO/TKO

R20:55

Dec '23

33 SS (77%)·2 abs·216s ctrl·1 kd

Edgar Chairez

U-DEC

Jul '23

61 SS (78%)·25 abs·2/3 td·593s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att

View full fight log →

Common Opponents

Edgar ChairezSame result

Van

UD·R3·2024

Taira

UD·R3·2023

Brandon RoyvalSplit result

Van

UD·R3·2025

Taira

SD·R5·2024

Matchup·FLY·5R

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

2/13←→

Red Corner

Joshua Van

“The Fearless”

16-210 UFC5mo ago

5'5"ht65"reachOrthodox24 yrs

VS·FLY·5R

Blue Corner

Tatsuro Taira

“The Best”

18-19 UFC5mo ago

5'7"+2"ht70"+5"reachOrthodox26 yrs

Polymarket

Van 40%61% Taira

StrikingVanClear edge

Decision—

GrapplingTairaSlight edge

Durability—

KO Adv.TairaDominant

Sub Adv.TairaClear edge

Signals

SUBMISSIONTaira actively hunts the finish on the ground.

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

Van

Van+2.45

Taira+0.50

CQGrappling

Taira

Van0.46

Taira0.59

CQDecision

—

Van70%

Taira77%

CQDurability

—

Van76Durable

Taira94Ironclad

CQCardio

—

VanOutput Builds Late

TairaOutput Builds Late

CQPace Index

Extreme

Van8.84SLpM

Taira2.94SLpM

11.8

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Van

KO/TKO ×3

Finish Rate (Wins)

33%

3/9

Stopped Rate (Losses)

100%

1/1

Taira

KO/TKO ×3Sub ×3

Finish Rate (Wins)

75%

6/8

Stopped Rate (Losses)

0/1

Opposition Quality

Van9–1UFC

Taira8–1UFC

vs. Winning-Record

6–0n=6

+3.3strike diff/min

6–1n=7

+0.6strike diff/min

Division Percentile Ranks

FLY

VanTaira

97thStriking Diff66th

56thGrappling87th

84thRound Win Rate94th

86thTD Defense24th

44thDurability94th

17thFinish Rate74th

Recent Form

Van

Stat

Taira

11.34

8.84 career

↑2.50

SLpMOutput

↓0.94

2.00

2.94 career

10.03

6.39 career

↑3.64

SApMAbsorbed

↑1.09

3.53

2.44 career

—

TD AttAtt/15m

↑2.63

9.35

6.72 career

—

SubAtt/15m

↓0.82

0.78

1.60 career

Stat Breakdown

Van60% distance

Finish 40%Decision 60%

Taira33% distance

Finish 67%Decision 33%

Van 10 UFC fights·Taira 9 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Van

13.8min

Taira

10.7min

Combined Distance Rate

47%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Van→Taira

32Elevated

Threat

KD / 15 min0.60

KO rate33%

Taira's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.11

KO loss rate0%

Taira→Van

53High

Threat

KD / 15 min0.47

KO rate38%

Van's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.10

KO loss rate100%

Sub Danger

Van→Taira

5Minimal

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.00

Sub win rate0%

Taira's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

Taira→Van

27Elevated

Threat

Sub att / 15m1.60

Sub win rate38%

Van's Vuln

Sub loss rate0%

VanWinTaira

33%

38%

Sub

38%

67%

Dec

25%

9 wins3 KO6 Dec

2 Dec3 Sub3 KO8 wins

VanLossTaira

100%

Sub

Dec

100%

1 loss1 KO

1 Dec1 loss

Round Distribution

Van

4 stoppages4 KO

All Stoppages

WKOPantojaR1 · 0:26

WKOSilvaR3 · 4:01

LKOJohnsonR3 · 0:20

WKOBunesR2 · 4:31

Taira

6 stoppages3 KO3 Sub

All Stoppages

WKOMorenoR2 · 2:24

WSUBParkR2 · 1:06

WKOPerezR2 · 2:59

WKOHernandezR2 · 0:55

Historical Context

Van—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Alexandre PantojaVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO · R1 · 0:26 · Dec '25

2 SS (50%)·6 abs

Brandon Royval

U-DEC · R3 · Jun '25

204 SS (67%)·215 abs·9s ctrl·1 kd

Bruno Silva

KO/TKO · R3 · 4:01 · Jun '25

125 SS (58%)·76 abs·1 td taken·61s ctrl·3 kd

Rei Tsuruya

U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25

59 SS (61%)·32 abs·4 td taken·50s ctrl

Cody Durden

U-DEC · R3 · Dec '24

165 SS (54%)·70 abs·2 td taken·20s ctrl

Edgar Chairez

U-DEC · R3 · Sep '24

118 SS (59%)·79 abs·3/3 td·266s ctrl

View full fight log →

Taira—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Brandon MorenoVeteran

KO/TKO · R2 · 2:24 · Dec '25

28 SS (58%)·9 abs·1/4 td·267s ctrl

HyunSung ParkTITLE

SUB · R2 · 1:06 · Aug '25

7 SS (64%)·3 abs·4/5 td·281s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att

Brandon RoyvalTITLE

S-DEC · R5 · Oct '24

42 SS (42%)·124 abs·6/15 td·3 td taken·733s ctrl·1 sub att

Alex PerezVeteranTITLE

KO/TKO · R2 · 2:59 · Jun '24

31 SS (47%)·41 abs·2/2 td·1 td taken·48s ctrl

Carlos Hernandez

KO/TKO · R2 · 0:55 · Dec '23

33 SS (77%)·2 abs·216s ctrl·1 kd

Edgar Chairez

U-DEC · R3 · Jul '23

61 SS (78%)·25 abs·2/3 td·593s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att

View full fight log →

Common Opponents

Edgar ChairezSame result

Van

UD·R3·2024

Taira

UD·R3·2023

Brandon RoyvalSplit result

Van

UD·R3·2025

Taira

SD·R5·2024