King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens

Matchup Analysis·Lightweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland5 / 13

←Brady vs Buckley Gautier vs Diaz→

Red Corner

King Green

34-17-1(1 NC)29 UFCLast2mo ago

Pressure Fighter

Aging Threat

2× Title

2× 5R

Output Builds Late

High Wear

5'10"ht·71"reach·Orthodoxstance·39age

Lightweight155 lbs

Blue Corner

Jeremy Stephens

“Lil' Heathen”

28-20(1 NC)35 UFCLast1.0yr ago

Kickboxer

Declining

4× Title

4× 5R

High Wear

5'9"ht·71"reach·Orthodoxstance·39age

Green 73%

27% Stephens

Polymarket

Outcome—

StrikingGreenDominant

DecisionGreenClear edge

GrapplingGreenSlight edge

KO Adv.StephensDominant

Sub Adv.GreenClear edge

DurabilityStephens

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

Green

+2.80

Stephens

+0.01

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

Green

0.50

Stephens

0.31

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

Green

85%

Stephens

48%

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

Stephens

Green

Average

Stephens

Durable

5 KO lossesKO losses3 KO losses

0.21KD / fight0.14

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

High

Green6.38SLpM

SLpM3.15Stephens

9.5

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

—

GreenOutput Builds Late+45% R1→R3

StephensOutput Builds Late+30% R1→R3

Finish History

Green

KO/TKO ×4Sub ×2

Finish rate (wins)

40%

6/15

Stopped rate (losses)

50%

6/12

Stephens

KO/TKO ×8

Finish rate (wins)

53%

8/15

Stopped rate (losses)

32%

6/19

Edge & Exposure

Green

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Stephens

No dominant edges or exposures identified from UFC record.

Opposition Quality

Green15–12UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

11–12

Record (24)

+2.6

Str Diff/Min

55%

Finish (W)

vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)

+12% step-up

5–5

Record (10)

+3.6

Str Diff/Min

60%

Finish (W)

vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

3–0

Record (3)

+6.1

Str Diff/Min

33%

Finish (W)

Stephens15–19UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

8–16

Record (25)

-0.2

Str Diff/Min

75%

Finish (W)

vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)

-9% step-up

2–4

Record (6)

-0.6

Str Diff/Min

50%

Finish (W)

vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

Not enough qualifying fights

Division Percentile Ranks

GreenLightweightStephens

97th

Striking Differential

46th

59th

Grappling Threat

54th

96th

Round Win Rate

41st

63rd

TD Defense

36th

Durability

81st

24th

Finishing Rate

51st

Recent Form

Green

Stat

Stephens

5.736.38 career

↓0.65

SLpMOutput

↑0.99

4.143.15 career

1.893.58 career

↓1.69

SApMAbsorbed

⚠↑2.47

5.613.14 career

2.772.78 career

↓0.01

TD AttAttempts/15m

⚠↓2.89

0.002.89 career

Stat Breakdown

Finishes

Green55% distance

Finish 45%Decision 55%

Stephens57% distance

Finish 43%Decision 57%

Green 29 UFC fights·Stephens 35 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Green

10.8min

Stephens

11.9min

Combined Distance Rate

56%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Green→Stephens

Elevated

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.29

KO finish rate27%

Stephens's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.14

KO loss rate16%

Stephens→Green

Elite

Striking Threat

KDs per 15 min0.67

KO finish rate53%

Green's Chin

KDs absorbed/fight0.21

KO loss rate42%

Sub Danger

Green→Stephens

Elevated

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.30

Sub win rate13%

Stephens's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate16%

Stephens→Green

Low

Sub Threat

Sub att / 15 min0.40

Sub win rate0%

Green's Vulnerability

Sub loss rate8%

GreenWin MethodStephens

27%

KO / TKO

53%

13%

Submission

60%

Decision

47%

15 UFC wins · 4 KO · 2 Sub · 9 Dec15 UFC wins · 8 KO · 7 Dec

Green

Loss Method

Stephens

42%

KO / TKO

16%

Submission

16%

50%

Decision

68%

12 UFC losses · 5 KO · 1 Sub · 6 Dec19 UFC losses · 3 KO · 3 Sub · 13 Dec

Green13 stoppages · 9 KO · 3 Sub

KO Win

KO Loss

Sub Win

Sub Loss

All stoppages

WKODaniel ZellhuberR2 · 4:55

LKOMauricio RuffyR1 · 2:07

LSubPaddy PimblettR1 · 3:22

LKOJalin TurnerR1 · 2:49

WKOGrant DawsonR1 · 0:33

Stephens15 stoppages · 11 KO · 3 Sub

KO Win

KO Loss

Sub Loss

All stoppages

LSubMateusz GamrotR1 · 1:05

LKOCalvin KattarR2 · 2:49

NCFinYair RodriguezR1 · 0:15

LKOJose AldoR1 · 4:19

WKOJosh EmmettR2 · 1:35

Historical Context

Green — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·29 fights

Daniel Zellhuber

KO/TKO

R24:55

Feb '26

86 SS (64%)·17 abs·3/3 td·125s ctrl·1 kd

Lance Gibson Jr.

S-DEC

Dec '25

65 SS (46%)·30 abs·1/2 td·2 td taken·44s ctrl

Mauricio Ruffy

KO/TKO

R12:07

Mar '25

4 SS (27%)·4 abs·1 kd taken

Paddy Pimblett

SUB

R13:22

Jul '24

15 SS (71%)·8 abs·1/1 td·34s ctrl

Jim MillerElite

U-DEC

Apr '24

186 SS (58%)·57 abs·1/1 td·54s ctrl·1 kd

Jalin Turner

KO/TKO

R12:49

Dec '23

15 SS (58%)·33 abs·1 kd taken

View full fight log →

Stephens — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

Mason Jones

U-DEC

May '25

42 SS (39%)·81 abs·8 td taken·11s ctrl

Mateusz Gamrot

SUB

R11:05

Jul '21

0 SS·1 abs·1 td taken

Calvin Kattar

KO/TKO

R22:49

May '20

57 SS (55%)·52 abs·6s ctrl·1 kd taken

Yair Rodriguez

U-DEC

Oct '19

50 SS (53%)·96 abs·3/4 td·335s ctrl

Yair RodriguezTITLE

Could Not …

Sep '19

0 SS (0%)·2 abs

Zabit Magomedsharipov

U-DEC

Mar '19

41 SS (34%)·70 abs·3 td taken

View full fight log →

Matchup·LW·3R

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

5/13←→

Red Corner

King Green

34-17-1(1 NC)29 UFC2mo ago

5'10"ht71"reachOrthodox39 yrs

VS·LW·3R

Blue Corner

Jeremy Stephens

“Lil' Heathen”

28-20(1 NC)35 UFC1.0yr ago

5'9"ht71"reachOrthodox39 yrs

Polymarket

Green 73%27% Stephens

StrikingGreenDominant

DecisionGreenClear edge

GrapplingGreenSlight edge

DurabilityStephens

KO Adv.StephensDominant

Sub Adv.GreenClear edge

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

Green

Green+2.80

Stephens+0.01

CQGrappling

Green

Green0.50

Stephens0.31

CQDecision

Green

Green85%

Stephens48%

CQDurability

Stephens

Green61Average

Stephens86Durable

CQCardio

—

GreenOutput Builds Late

StephensOutput Builds Late

CQPace Index

High

Green6.38SLpM

Stephens3.15SLpM

9.5

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Green

KO/TKO ×4Sub ×2

Finish Rate (Wins)

40%

6/15

Stopped Rate (Losses)

50%

6/12

Stephens

KO/TKO ×8

Finish Rate (Wins)

53%

8/15

Stopped Rate (Losses)

32%

6/19

Opposition Quality

Green15–12UFC

Stephens15–19UFC

vs. Winning-Record

11–12n=24

+2.6strike diff/min

8–16n=25

-0.2strike diff/min

vs. Veteran (≥8W)

5–5n=10

+3.6strike diff/min

2–4n=6

-0.6strike diff/min

vs. Elite (≥15W)

3–0n=3

+6.1strike diff/min

—

Division Percentile Ranks

GreenStephens

97thStriking Diff46th

59thGrappling54th

96thRound Win Rate41st

63rdTD Defense36th

36thDurability81st

24thFinish Rate51st

Recent Form

Green

Stat

Stephens

5.73

6.38 career

↓0.65

SLpMOutput

↑0.99

4.14

3.15 career

1.89

3.58 career

↓1.69

SApMAbsorbed

↑2.47

5.61

3.14 career

2.77

2.78 career

↓0.01

TD AttAtt/15m

↓2.89

0.00

2.89 career

Stat Breakdown

Green55% distance

Finish 45%Decision 55%

Stephens57% distance

Finish 43%Decision 57%

Green 29 UFC fights·Stephens 35 UFC fights

Avg Fight Length

Green

10.8min

Stephens

11.9min

Combined Distance Rate

56%of fights go the distance

CQ Finish Risk

KO Danger

Green→Stephens

32Elevated

Threat

KD / 15 min0.29

KO rate27%

Stephens's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.14

KO loss rate16%

Stephens→Green

59Elite

Threat

KD / 15 min0.67

KO rate53%

Green's Chin

KDs abs/fight0.21

KO loss rate42%

Sub Danger

Green→Stephens

36Elevated

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.30

Sub win rate13%

Stephens's Vuln

Sub loss rate16%

Stephens→Green

13Low

Threat

Sub att / 15m0.40

Sub win rate0%

Green's Vuln

Sub loss rate8%

GreenWinStephens

27%

53%

13%

Sub

60%

Dec

47%

15 wins4 KO2 Sub9 Dec

7 Dec8 KO15 wins

GreenLossStephens

42%

16%

Sub

16%

50%

Dec

68%

12 losses5 KO1 Sub6 Dec

13 Dec3 Sub3 KO19 losses

Round Distribution

Green

12 stoppages9 KO3 Sub

All Stoppages

WKOZellhuberR2 · 4:55

LKORuffyR1 · 2:07

LSUBPimblettR1 · 3:22

LKOTurnerR1 · 2:49

Stephens

14 stoppages11 KO3 Sub

All Stoppages

LSUBGamrotR1 · 1:05

LKOKattarR2 · 2:49

LKOAldoR1 · 4:19

WKOEmmettR2 · 1:35

Historical Context

Green—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·29 fights

Daniel Zellhuber

KO/TKO · R2 · 4:55 · Feb '26

86 SS (64%)·17 abs·3/3 td·125s ctrl·1 kd

Lance Gibson Jr.

S-DEC · R3 · Dec '25

65 SS (46%)·30 abs·1/2 td·2 td taken·44s ctrl

Mauricio Ruffy

KO/TKO · R1 · 2:07 · Mar '25

4 SS (27%)·4 abs·1 kd taken

Paddy Pimblett

SUB · R1 · 3:22 · Jul '24

15 SS (71%)·8 abs·1/1 td·34s ctrl

Jim MillerElite

U-DEC · R3 · Apr '24

186 SS (58%)·57 abs·1/1 td·54s ctrl·1 kd

Jalin Turner

KO/TKO · R1 · 2:49 · Dec '23

15 SS (58%)·33 abs·1 kd taken

View full fight log →

Stephens—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

Mason Jones

U-DEC · R3 · May '25

42 SS (39%)·81 abs·8 td taken·11s ctrl

Mateusz Gamrot

SUB · R1 · 1:05 · Jul '21

0 SS·1 abs·1 td taken

Calvin Kattar

KO/TKO · R2 · 2:49 · May '20

57 SS (55%)·52 abs·6s ctrl·1 kd taken

Yair Rodriguez

U-DEC · R3 · Oct '19

50 SS (53%)·96 abs·3/4 td·335s ctrl

Yair RodriguezTITLE

Could Not … · R1 · Sep '19

0 SS (0%)·2 abs

Zabit Magomedsharipov

U-DEC · R3 · Mar '19

41 SS (34%)·70 abs·3 td taken

View full fight log →