Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
Red Corner
21-7-120 UFCLast7mo ago
Balanced
Declining
5× Title
5× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
High Wear
5'11"ht·72"reach·Orthodoxstance·37age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
5R
Blue Corner
Tom Nolan
“Big Train”
11-16 UFCLast5mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Hot Streak
6'3"+4"ht·73"reach·Southpawstance·2611yrage
Signals3 signals
SUBMISSION
Nolan actively hunts submissions on the ground.
SOUTHPAW
Nolan is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Nolan natural angle advantages at range.
AGE GAP
Moicano is 11 years older than Nolan.
CQ Core Edges
Moicano
+0.55
Nolan
+1.10
Moicano
0.71
Nolan
0.39
Moicano
62%
Nolan
58%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Moicano
66
AverageNolan
61
Average3 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.20KD / fight0.33
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moicano4.10SLpM
+SLpM4.84Nolan
8.9
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
MoicanoOutput Builds Late+37% R1→R3
NolanOutput Drops Late-39% R1→R3
Finish History
Moicano
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×7
Finish rate (wins)
69%
9/13
Stopped rate (losses)
71%
5/7
Nolan
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
40%
2/5
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
1/1
Edge & Exposure
Moicano
EdgeStriking Edge
Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
ExposureMileage Risk
Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.
Nolan
EdgeStriking Edge
Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.
Opposition Quality
Moicano13–7UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
9–7
Record (16)
-0.7
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-36% step-up
4–4
Record (8)
-0.2
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
0–3
Record (3)
-1.1
Str Diff/Min
—
Finish (W)
Nolan5–1UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
3–0
Record (3)
+1.3
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
Not enough qualifying fights
Division Percentile Ranks
MoicanoLightweightNolan
65th
Striking Differential
79th60th
Grappling Threat
39th73rd
Round Win Rate
67th44th
TD Defense
33rd46th
Durability
38th68th
Finishing Rate
23rdRecent Form
Moicano
Stat
Nolan
2.234.10 career
⚠↓1.87
SLpMOutput
⚠↓1.15
3.694.84 career
3.263.55 career
↓0.29
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.90
2.843.74 career
3.844.15 career
↓0.31
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑2.42
6.594.17 career
0.550.60 career
↓0.05
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↑0.36
1.761.40 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Moicano30% distance
Finish 70%Decision 30%
Nolan50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Moicano 20 UFC fights·Nolan 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Moicano
9.4min
Nolan
9.0min
Combined Distance Rate
35%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
MoicanoTO KNOCK OUTNolan
39
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins13
Nolan's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses1
NolanTO KNOCK OUTMoicano
39
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins1
Total UFC wins5
Moicano's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses7
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
MoicanoTO SUBMITNolan
30
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins7
Total UFC wins13
Nolan's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses1
NolanTO SUBMITMoicano
64
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins5
Moicano's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses7
MoicanoWin MethodNolan
15%
KO / TKO
20%
54%
Submission
20%
31%
Decision
60%
13 UFC wins · 2 KO · 7 Sub · 4 Dec5 UFC wins · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 3 Dec
Moicano
Loss Method
Nolan43%
KO / TKO
100%
29%
Submission
0%
29%
Decision
0%
7 UFC losses · 3 KO · 2 Sub · 2 Dec1 UFC loss · 1 KO
Moicano14 stoppages · 5 KO · 9 Sub
R1
6
R2
7
R3
1
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WSubChris DuncanR2 · 3:14
LSubIslam MakhachevR1 · 4:05
WKOBenoit Saint DenisR2 · 5:00
WKOJalin TurnerR2 · 4:11
WSubBrad RiddellR1 · 3:20
Nolan3 stoppages · 2 KO · 1 Sub
R1
3
R20
R30
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
All stoppages
WSubCharlie CampbellR1 · 4:08
WKOVictor MartinezR1 · 3:50
LKONikolas MottaR1 · 1:03
Historical Context
Moicano — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
21 SS (58%)·27 abs·1/4 td·196s ctrl·1 sub att
31 SS (51%)·56 abs·0/3 td·5 td taken·80s ctrl·1 kd
9 SS (33%)·6 abs·1 td taken
50 SS (69%)·25 abs·1/3 td·293s ctrl
36 SS (54%)·16 abs·2/6 td·350s ctrl·1 kd taken
23 SS (55%)·23 abs·3/6 td·1 td taken·633s ctrl
Nolan — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·6 fights
31 SS (47%)·16 abs·2/6 td·3 td taken·407s ctrl
26 SS (43%)·15 abs·1/1 td·34s ctrl·1 sub att
69 SS (39%)·66 abs·1/8 td·121s ctrl·3 sub att
84 SS (48%)·69 abs·2 td taken·22s ctrl·1 sub att
33 SS (52%)·18 abs·1 kd taken
12 SS (60%)·21 abs·1 kd taken