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Chris Duncan lands 4.8 and absorbs 4.6 significant strikes per minute. Output and absorption are close.

Chris Duncan's striking output climbs from round 1 to round 3.

Chris Duncan's takedown activity is a consistent part of the output. Takedown threat ranks in the upper third of the division.

Chris Duncan wins 50% of rounds across 16 scored. Round splits are close.

Chris Duncan has 0 KO/TKO losses in 2 total UFC losses. Absorbs 0.00 knockdowns per fight. Durability score of 94 out of 99, high for the division.

Chris Duncan finishes 50% of wins by KO/TKO or submission.

All Fighters
Fighter Profile›Lightweight
“The Problem”

Chris Duncan

15-38 UFC
Wrestler
Form
Title Fight
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
5'10"ht·71"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
Last fightLRenato Moicano·SUB·R2·3mo ago
Fighter Context
6–2UFC·
0KO
·
3Sub
·
3Dec
·
8.7min/fight
·
77UFC min
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–2(7 fights)
·
40%finish rate
·
-0.1str diff/min
CQ Key Stats
Striking Differential
+0.26
Neutral
52%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.380
Strong
82%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
94
Ironclad
92%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
50%
Average
45%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Chris Duncan — 4.83 significant strikes per minute, 45% striking accuracy, absorbs 4.57 strikes per minute.

Duncan
Blitzer
Lightweight avg
Sig. Strikes / Min4.83
Str. Accuracy45%
321UFC landed/695attempted
Sig. Absorbed / min
+0.4 vs avg4.57
Str. Defense50%
KD Rate / fight0.25
2UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / fightNone on record
CQ KO Power
Average48%ile0.62
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
61%
Body
22%
Leg
18%
By Position
Distance83%
/
Clinch7%
/
Ground11%
Sig. Strikes by Round
Round 18 rounds
Round 25 rounds
Round 33 rounds
Avg. Landed171634
Avg. Absorbed181623
Avg. Net-10+11
Grappling

Chris Duncan — 2.9 takedowns per 15 minutes, 40% takedown accuracy, 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 55% takedown defense.

Duncan
Control Wrestler
·100s ctrlAverage Control
Lightweight avg
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.92
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY6.88
TD Accuracy40%
13UFC landed/32attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.60
3UFC wins/3attempted
Defense
Solid TD Def
TD Defense55%
10UFC defended/18opp. attempts
Sub Defense
Sub Liability
Finishing

Chris Duncan — 6 UFC wins (3 submission, 3 decision), 50% finish rate.

Finish Rate
50%
Average
div avg 52%
How They Lose
2UFC losses
Win Breakdown
KO / TKO0 / 6
Submission3 / 6
Decision3 / 6
KD → Finish
0/2Low
Loss Breakdown
KO / TKO0 / 2
Submission2 / 2
Decision0 / 2
Loss Pattern
2 of 2 losses by finish in R1–R2
Submission hunter. 3 subs, all inside R1-R2
Finish Round Distribution
Finish WinsFinish LossesR1R2R3
SUB W
SUB L
Cards & Decisions
Recovery Rate
—
More data needed.
Decision Margin
1.4pts
W3 dec
—
L0 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
2UD
·
1SD
·
0MD
·
33%split rate
Career Trajectory
Win
Loss
D/NC
Elite opp (15+ wins)
Veteran opp (8+ wins)
sig. strikes trending up. Averaging 6 more in second half of career
0+26+53+79+106avg2023202420252026

8 UFC fights · hover for details · colored line = 3-fight rolling avg

Pace & Cardio
Output Builds Late
Output
Absorbed
Diff
1.53.45.3R1R2R3
R1n=8
R2n=5
R3n=3
Outputsig strikes / min
4.2
3.7
6.9
Absorbedsig strikes / min
4.4
3.7
4.7
Diff
-0.2
+0.0
+2.2

Per-round averages across career · partial final rounds included at actual elapsed time · rounds below 5 min. career total suppressed · dashed lines = division avg

Last 8 Fights — Trend
▲Absorbed+50%L3
-1%66%133%WWLWWWWL

Last 8 UFC fights · Absorbed & Strike Diff = index vs career avg (1.0 = avg, 0 = breakeven) · Orange dots = KDs absorbed

Elite oppVeteran opp
Duncan — 8 UFC Fights

Chris Duncan — UFC fight record: 6 wins, 2 losses.

Result
Method
8 fights
L
Renato MoicanoVeteran
TITLELW
SUB R2 · 3:14Apr '26
+6
·27 SS (44%)·21 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken
W
Terrance McKinney
LW
SUB R1 · 2:30Dec '25
+7
·38 SS (69%)·31 abs·1/2 td·70s ctrl·1 kd landed·1 sub att
W
Mateusz Rebecki
LW
U-DEC R3Aug '25
-22
·92 SS (41%)·114 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·27s ctrl
W
Jordan Vucenic
LW
SUB R2 · 3:42Mar '25
-1
·15 SS (38%)·16 abs·4/5 td·1 td taken·337s ctrl·1 kd landed·1 sub att
W
Bolaji Oki
LW
SUB R1 · 3:34Sep '24
-18
·10 SS (40%)·28 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·1 sub att
L
Manuel Torres
LW
SUB R1 · 1:46Feb '24
-2
·1 SS (50%)·3 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·40s ctrl
W
Yanal Ashmouz
LW
U-DEC R3Jul '23
+50
·85 SS (41%)·35 abs·2/4 td·48s ctrl
W
Omar Morales
LW
S-DEC R3Mar '23
+6
·53 SS (64%)·47 abs·5/14 td·391s ctrl
Duncan — Prior Tracked Fights (2)
WCharlie CampbellDWCSKO/TKOR1Aug 2022
LViacheslav BorshchevDWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2021
All Fighters
Lightweight
“The Problem”

Chris Duncan

15-38 UFC
Form
5'10"ht·71"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
Last fightLRenato Moicano·SUB·3mo ago
Fighter Context
6–2UFC·
0KO
·
3Sub
·
3Dec
·
8.7min/fight
·
77UFC min
vs. Winning Record5–2
CQ Key Stats
Str. Differential
+0.26
52%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.380
82%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
94
92%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
50%
45%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking
Duncan
Lightweight avg
Blitzer
Sig. Strikes / Min4.83
Str. Accuracy45%
321UFC landed/695attempted
Sig. Absorbed / Min
+0.4 vs avg4.57
Str. Defense50%
KD Rate / Fight0.25
2UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / FightNone on record
CQ KO Power
Average48%ile0.62
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
61%
Body
22%
Leg
18%
By Position
Dist83%
Clinch7%
Ground11%
Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)
R1
n=8
R2
n=5
R3
n=3
Landed171634
Absorbed181623
Net-10+11
Grappling
Duncan
Lightweight avg
Control Wrestler
100s ctrlAverage Control
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.92
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY6.88
TD Accuracy40%
13UFC landed/32attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.60
3UFC wins/3attempted
Defense
Solid TD Def
TD Defense55%
10UFC defended/18opp. attempts
Sub Defense2 loss / 2 attempts
Finishing
Finish Rate
50%
Average
Win Methods
0KO/TKO
3Sub
3Dec
Loss Methods
0KO/TKO
2Sub
0Dec
Finish Round Distribution
R1
R2
R3
Sub (W)
Sub (L)
Cards & Decisions
Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.
—More data needed.
Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.
1.4pts
W3 dec
—
L0 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
2UD
·
1SD
·
0MD
·
33%split rate
Career Trajectory chart available on desktop.
Pace & Cardio
Output Builds Late
Output
Absorbed
Diff
1.53.45.3R1R2R3
R1n=8
R2n=5
R3n=3
Outputsig strikes / min
4.2
3.7
6.9
Absorbedsig strikes / min
4.4
3.7
4.7
Diff
-0.2
+0.0
+2.2

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Duncan — UFC Fight Log
|
L
Renato MoicanoVeteranTITLELW
SUB·R2·Apr '26
27 SS (44%)·21 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken
W
Terrance McKinneyLW
SUB·R1·Dec '25
38 SS (69%)·31 abs·1/2 td·70s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub
W
Mateusz RebeckiLW
U-DEC·R3·Aug '25
92 SS (41%)·114 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·27s ctrl
W
Jordan VucenicLW
SUB·R2·Mar '25
15 SS (38%)·16 abs·4/5 td·1 td taken·337s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub
W
Bolaji OkiLW
SUB·R1·Sep '24
10 SS (40%)·28 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·1 sub
L
Manuel TorresLW
SUB·R1·Feb '24
1 SS (50%)·3 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·40s ctrl
W
Yanal AshmouzLW
U-DEC·R3·Jul '23
85 SS (41%)·35 abs·2/4 td·48s ctrl
W
Omar MoralesLW
S-DEC·R3·Mar '23
53 SS (64%)·47 abs·5/14 td·391s ctrl
Duncan — Prior Tracked Fights (2)
WCharlie CampbellDWCSKO/TKOR1Aug 2022
LViacheslav BorshchevDWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2021
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X