Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
Red Corner
29-15(1 NC)27 UFCLast8mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Aging Threat
High Variance
Early Chaos
High Wear
5'8"ht·70"reach·Southpawstance·38age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner
Chris Duncan
“The Problem”
15-38 UFCLast7mo ago
Wrestler
Title Fight
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
5'10"+2"ht·71"reach·Orthodoxstance·335yrage
Signals2 signals
SOUTHPAW
Dober is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Dober natural angle advantages at range.
AGE GAP
Dober is 5 years older than Duncan.
CQ Core Edges
Dober
+0.15
Duncan
+0.26
Dober
0.27
Duncan
1.23
Dober
51%
Duncan
50%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Dober
78
DurableDuncan
94
Ironclad3 KO lossesKO losses0 KO losses
0.11KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Dober4.48SLpM
+SLpM4.83Duncan
9.3
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
DoberOutput Holds Steady+14% R1→R3
DuncanOutput Builds Late+65% R1→R3
Finish History
Dober
KO/TKO ×11Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
80%
12/15
Stopped rate (losses)
64%
7/11
Duncan
Sub ×3
Finish rate (wins)
50%
3/6
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
2/2
Edge & Exposure
Dober
EdgeKO Threat
Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.
ExposureMileage Risk
Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.
Duncan
EdgeGrappling Dominant
Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
Opposition Quality
Dober15–11UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
8–8
Record (16)
-0.5
Str Diff/Min
88%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-42% step-up
2–2
Record (4)
-1.6
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Duncan6–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–2
Record (7)
-0.1
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
DoberLightweightDuncan
49th
Striking Differential
54th21st
Grappling Threat
84th52nd
Round Win Rate
48th33rd
TD Defense
27th68th
Durability
94th75th
Finishing Rate
39thRecent Form
Dober
Stat
Duncan
5.434.48 career
↑0.95
SLpMOutput
↑1.27
6.104.83 career
5.084.33 career
↑0.75
SApMAbsorbed
⚠↑1.88
6.454.57 career
0.753.58 career
⚠↓2.83
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓3.97
2.916.88 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.02
0.580.60 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Dober26% distance
Finish 74%Decision 26%
Duncan38% distance
Finish 62%Decision 38%
Dober 27 UFC fights·Duncan 8 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Dober
8.2min
Duncan
8.7min
Combined Distance Rate
29%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
DoberTO KNOCK OUTDuncan
32
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins11
Total UFC wins15
Duncan's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses2
DuncanTO KNOCK OUTDober
30
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins0
Total UFC wins6
Dober's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses11
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
DoberTO SUBMITDuncan
33
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins15
Duncan's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses2
DuncanTO SUBMITDober
76
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins3
Total UFC wins6
Dober's Sub Losses
Sub losses4
Total UFC losses11
DoberWin MethodDuncan
73%
KO / TKO
0%
7%
Submission
50%
20%
Decision
50%
15 UFC wins · 11 KO · 1 Sub · 3 Dec6 UFC wins · 3 Sub · 3 Dec
Dober
Loss Method
Duncan27%
KO / TKO
0%
36%
Submission
100%
36%
Decision
0%
11 UFC losses · 3 KO · 4 Sub · 4 Dec2 UFC losses · 2 Sub
Dober20 stoppages · 14 KO · 5 Sub
R1
10
R2
6
R3
4
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKOMichael JohnsonR2 · 1:53
WKOKyle PrepolecR3 · 1:16
LKOManuel TorresR1 · 1:45
LKOJean SilvaR3 · 1:28
WKORicky GlennR1 · 2:36
Duncan5 stoppages · 5 Sub
R1
3
R2
2
R30
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubRenato MoicanoR2 · 3:14
WSubTerrance McKinneyR1 · 2:30
WSubJordan VucenicR2 · 3:42
WSubBolaji OkiR1 · 3:34
LSubManuel TorresR1 · 1:46
Historical Context
Dober — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·27 fights
22 SS (40%)·27 abs·1 kd
83 SS (52%)·51 abs·0/1 td
3 SS (33%)·23 abs·1 kd taken
59 SS (40%)·53 abs·0/4 td·30s ctrl
23 SS (39%)·23 abs·1/2 td·3 td taken·62s ctrl
30 SS (57%)·5 abs·31s ctrl·1 kd
Duncan — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·8 fights
27 SS (44%)·21 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken
38 SS (69%)·31 abs·1/2 td·70s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
92 SS (41%)·114 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·27s ctrl
15 SS (38%)·16 abs·4/5 td·1 td taken·337s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
10 SS (40%)·28 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·1 sub att
1 SS (50%)·3 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·40s ctrl
Common Opponents
Terrance McKinneySame result
W
Dober
KO/TKO·R1·2022
W
Duncan
Sub·R1·2025
Renato MoicanoSame result
L
Dober
UD·R3·2024
L
Duncan
Sub·R2·2026
Manuel TorresSame result
L
Dober
KO/TKO·R1·2025
L
Duncan
Sub·R1·2024