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Matchup Analysis·Welterweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan2 / 12
←Moicano vs NolanOsbourne vs Durden→
Red Corner

Randy Brown

“Rudeboy”
20-822 UFCLast7mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
Title Fight
High Wear
6'3"+5"ht·78"+6"reach·Orthodoxstance·36age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Jacobe Smith

“Cobe”
13-04 UFCLastthis month
Complete Fighter
Hot Streak
5'10"ht·72"reach·Southpawstance·306yrage
CQ
EdgesElevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingSmithDominant
DecisionNo data
GrapplingSmithDominant
KO Adv.SmithDominant
Sub Adv.SmithClear edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
3 signals
SOUTHPAW

Smith is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Smith natural angle advantages at range.

REACH CLIFF

Brown has a 6" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Brown's reach is a structural advantage.

AGE GAP

Brown is 6 years older than Smith.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Smith
Brown
+1.04
Smith
+4.11
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Smith
Brown
0.00
Smith
2.02
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No data
Brown
47%
Smith
Too few rounds
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Brown
70
Average
Smith
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Extreme
Brown4.39SLpM
+
SLpM6.89Smith
11.3
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Contextual
BrownOutput Builds Late+21% R1→R3
SmithEarly Finisher
Finish History
Brown
KO/TKO ×4Sub ×3
Finish rate (wins)
50%
7/14
Stopped rate (losses)
63%
5/8
Smith
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped rate (losses)
—
—
Edge & Exposure
Brown
EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

ExposureMileage Risk

Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.

Smith
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

Opposition Quality
Brown14–8UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
10–7
Record (17)
+1.1
Str Diff/Min
60%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-2% step-up
3–2
Record (5)
+1.3
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
1–1
Record (2)
+0.3
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Smith4–0UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks
BrownWelterweightSmith
76th
Striking Differential
96th
30th
Grappling Threat
99th
35th
Round Win Rate
—
75th
TD Defense
97th
46th
Durability
75th
28th
Finishing Rate
88th

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Brown
Stat
Smith
4.704.39 career
↑0.31
SLpMOutput
↓0.27
6.626.89 career
4.133.35 career
↑0.78
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.53
3.312.78 career
2.122.08 career
↑0.04
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
0.000.50 career
↓0.50
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↑0.40
1.100.70 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Brown46% distance
Finish 54%Decision 46%
Smith0% distance
Finish 100%Decision 0%
Brown 22 UFC fights·Smith 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Brown
10.5min
Smith
3.7min
Combined Distance Rate
39%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
BrownTO KNOCK OUTSmith
30
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins4
Total UFC wins14
Smith's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses0
SmithTO KNOCK OUTBrown
60
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins4
Brown's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses8
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
BrownTO SUBMITSmith
25
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins3
Total UFC wins14
Smith's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses0
SmithTO SUBMITBrown
55
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins4
Brown's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses8
BrownWin MethodSmith
29%
KO / TKO
75%
21%
Submission
25%
50%
Decision
0%
14 UFC wins · 4 KO · 3 Sub · 7 Dec4 UFC wins · 3 KO · 1 Sub
Brown
Loss Method
Smith
38%
KO / TKO
—
25%
Submission
—
38%
Decision
—
8 UFC losses · 3 KO · 2 Sub · 3 DecNo UFC losses
Brown12 stoppages · 7 KO · 5 Sub
R1
3
R2
7
R3
2
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOGabriel BonfimR2 · 1:40
WKONicolas DalbyR2 · 1:39
WKOMuslim SalikhovR1 · 3:17
LSubJack Della MaddalenaR1 · 2:13
WSubAlex OliveiraR1 · 2:50
Smith4 stoppages · 3 KO · 1 Sub
R1
3
R2
1
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
Sub Win
All stoppages
WKOBruce WhiteheadR1 · 1:32
WKOJosiah HarrellR1 · 3:01
WSubNiko PriceR2 · 4:03
WKOPreston ParsonsR1 · 1:13
Historical Context
Brown — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Kevin HollandEliteWW
U-DEC
R3
Apr '26
46 SS (48%)·56 abs·0/4 td·163s ctrl
L
Gabriel BonfimTITLEWW
KO/TKO
R21:40
Nov '25
33 SS (38%)·35 abs·1 kd taken
W
Nicolas DalbyWW
KO/TKO
R21:39
Apr '25
54 SS (47%)·26 abs·1 kd·1 kd taken
L
Bryan BattleWW
S-DEC
R3
Dec '24
60 SS (54%)·57 abs·2/5 td·106s ctrl
W
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosVeteranWW
U-DEC
R3
Jun '24
67 SS (48%)·26 abs·4 td taken·42s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Muslim SalikhovWW
KO/TKO
R13:17
Feb '24
13 SS (28%)·10 abs·1 kd
View full fight log →
Smith — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·4 fights
W
Bruce WhiteheadWW
KO/TKO
R11:32
Oct '26
11 SS (65%)·4 abs·1/2 td·29s ctrl
W
Josiah HarrellWW
KO/TKO
R13:01
Feb '26
33 SS (70%)·7 abs·2/2 td·21s ctrl
W
Niko PriceVeteranWW
SUB
R24:03
Jun '25
46 SS (62%)·34 abs·2/2 td·341s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Preston ParsonsWW
KO/TKO
R11:13
Jan '25
12 SS (52%)·7 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WChristien Savoie
DWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2024
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Niko PriceSplit result
L
Brown
KO/TKO·R2·2018
W
Smith
Sub·R2·2025
Matchup·WW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
2/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Randy Brown

“Rudeboy”
20-822 UFC7mo ago
6'3"+5"ht78"+6"reachOrthodox36 yrs
VS·WW·3R
Blue Corner

Jacobe Smith

“Cobe”
13-04 UFCthis month
5'10"ht72"reachSouthpaw30 yrs
CQ
Edges
Elevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingSmithDominant
DecisionNo data
GrapplingSmithDominant
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.SmithDominant
Sub Adv.SmithClear edge
Signals
3
SOUTHPAWSmith is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.
REACH CLIFFBrown has a 6" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Brown's reach is a structural advantage.
AGE GAPBrown is 6 years older than Smith.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Smith
Brown+1.04
Smith+4.11
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Smith
Brown0.00
Smith2.02
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No data
Brown47%
SmithToo few rounds
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Brown
70Average
Smith
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Stats
Brown
Smith
Striking
4.39SS Landed / min6.89
47%Str Acc67%
3.35SS Absorbed / min2.78
53%Str Def47%
0.27KD / fight0.25
Grappling
0.71TD / min7.78
74%TD Def100%
0.50Sub Att · /15m0.70
80%Sub Def—
Finish History
Brown
KO/TKO ×4Sub ×3
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
7/14
Stopped Rate (Losses)
63%
5/8
Smith
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
—
—
Brown46% distance
Finish 54%Decision 46%
Smith0% distance
Finish 100%Decision 0%
Brown 22 UFC fights·Smith 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Brown
10.5min
Smith
3.7min
Combined Distance Rate
39%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
BrownWinSmith
29%
KO
75%
21%
Sub
25%
50%
Dec
0%
14 wins4 KO3 Sub7 Dec
1 Sub3 KO4 wins
BrownLossSmith
38%
KO
—
25%
Sub
—
38%
Dec
—
8 losses3 KO2 Sub3 Dec
—
CQ Finish Risk
Brown
to knock out
Smith
30Elevated
Smith
to knock out
Brown
60Elite
Brown
to submit
Smith
25Elevated
Smith
to submit
Brown
55Elite
Recent Form
Brown
Stat
Smith
4.70
4.39 career
↑0.31
SLpMOutput
↓0.27
6.62
6.89 career
4.13
3.35 career
↑0.78
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.53
3.31
2.78 career
2.12
2.08 career
↑0.04
TD AttAtt/15m
—
0.00
0.50 career
↓0.50
SubAtt/15m
↑0.40
1.10
0.70 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Brown—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Kevin HollandEliteWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Apr '26
46 SS (48%)·56 abs·0/4 td·163s ctrl
L
Gabriel BonfimTITLEWW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:40 · Nov '25
33 SS (38%)·35 abs·1 kd taken
W
Nicolas DalbyWW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:39 · Apr '25
54 SS (47%)·26 abs·1 kd·1 kd taken
L
Bryan BattleWW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Dec '24
60 SS (54%)·57 abs·2/5 td·106s ctrl
W
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosVeteranWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
67 SS (48%)·26 abs·4 td taken·42s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Muslim SalikhovWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:17 · Feb '24
13 SS (28%)·10 abs·1 kd
View full fight log →
Smith—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·4 fights
W
Bruce WhiteheadWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:32 · Oct '26
11 SS (65%)·4 abs·1/2 td·29s ctrl
W
Josiah HarrellWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:01 · Feb '26
33 SS (70%)·7 abs·2/2 td·21s ctrl
W
Niko PriceVeteranWW Bout
SUB · R2 · 4:03 · Jun '25
46 SS (62%)·34 abs·2/2 td·341s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Preston ParsonsWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:13 · Jan '25
12 SS (52%)·7 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WChristien Savoie
DWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2024
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Niko PriceSplit result
L
Brown
KO/TKO·R2·2018
W
Smith
Sub·R2·2025
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X