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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
↑UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit10 / 13
←Johnson vs AlmeidaChiasson vs Mesquita→
Red Corner

Jared Gordon

“Flash”
21-9(1 NC)18 UFCLast6mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
Output Builds Late
High Wear
5'9"ht·68"reach·Orthodoxstance·38age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Melquizael Costa

“The Dalmatian”
26-810 UFCLast6mo ago
Kickboxer
Title Fight
Early Chaos
5'10"ht·71"+3"reach·Southpawstance·308yrage
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingGordonSlight edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.CostaDominant
DurabilityCosta
Signals
3 signals
SOUTHPAW

Costa is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Costa natural angle advantages at range.

AGE GAP

Gordon is 8 years older than Costa.

WC TRANSITION

Costa is in their 3rd fight into a move up from Featherweight. Record at Lightweight: 0-2.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Gordon
+1.46
Costa
+1.10
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Gordon
Gordon
0.95
Costa
0.61
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Gordon
66%
Costa
58%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Costa
Gordon
49
Average
Costa
75
Durable
4 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.17KD / fight0.20
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Gordon5.57SLpM
+
SLpM4.29Costa
9.9
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
GordonOutput Builds Late+58% R1→R3
CostaOutput Builds Late+26% R1→R3
Finish History
Gordon
KO/TKO ×3
Finish rate (wins)
33%
3/9
Stopped rate (losses)
75%
6/8
Costa
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
57%
4/7
Stopped rate (losses)
67%
2/3
Edge & Exposure
Gordon
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Costa
EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Opposition Quality
Gordon9–8UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–8
Record (14)
-0.3
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+17% step-up
1–3
Record (5)
-0.8
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
0–2
Record (2)
-1.3
Str Diff/Min
—
Finish (W)
Costa7–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–3
Record (9)
+0.9
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+36% step-up
3–1
Record (4)
+2.3
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

Not enough qualifying fights

Division Percentile Ranks
GordonLightweightCosta
89th
Striking Differential
75th
59th
Grappling Threat
58th
88th
Round Win Rate
70th
35th
TD Defense
22nd
26th
Durability
58th
16th
Finishing Rate
55th
Recent Form
Gordon
Stat
Costa
4.045.57 career
⚠↓1.53
SLpMOutput
↓0.34
3.954.29 career
5.374.11 career
⚠↑1.26
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.24
3.433.19 career
4.605.49 career
↓0.89
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓1.91
2.414.32 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.80
0.000.80 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Gordon44% distance
Finish 56%Decision 44%
Costa40% distance
Finish 60%Decision 40%
Gordon 18 UFC fights·Costa 10 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Gordon
10.5min
Costa
10.8min
Combined Distance Rate
43%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
GordonTO KNOCK OUTCosta
43
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins9
Costa's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses3
CostaTO KNOCK OUTGordon
48
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins7
Gordon's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses4
Total UFC losses8
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
GordonTO SUBMITCosta
14
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins9
Costa's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses3
CostaTO SUBMITGordon
62
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins7
Gordon's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses8
GordonWin MethodCosta
33%
KO / TKO
29%
0%
Submission
29%
67%
Decision
43%
9 UFC wins · 3 KO · 6 Dec7 UFC wins · 2 KO · 2 Sub · 3 Dec
Gordon
Loss Method
Costa
50%
KO / TKO
33%
25%
Submission
33%
25%
Decision
33%
8 UFC losses · 4 KO · 2 Sub · 2 Dec3 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 1 Dec
Gordon10 stoppages · 7 KO · 2 Sub
R1
6
R2
1
R3
3
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubJim MillerR1 · 3:29
LKORafa GarciaR3 · 2:27
WKOThiago MoisesR1 · 3:37
WKOMark MadsenR1 · 4:42
NCFinKing GreenR1 · 4:35
Costa6 stoppages · 3 KO · 3 Sub
R1
3
R2
2
R3
1
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKODan IgeR1 · 4:56
WKOMorgan CharriereR1 · 1:14
WSubAndre FiliR1 · 4:30
WSubShayilan NuerdanbiekeR3 · 1:50
LKOSteve GarciaR2 · 1:01
Historical Context
Gordon — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Jim MillerEliteLW
SUB
R13:29
May '26
7 SS (44%)·9 abs·2/2 td·44s ctrl
L
Rafa GarciaLW
KO/TKO
R32:27
Sep '25
65 SS (35%)·91 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·9s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Thiago MoisesVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R13:37
May '25
7 SS (54%)·5 abs·1/1 td·156s ctrl·1 kd
L
Nasrat HaqparastVeteranLW
S-DEC
R3
Jun '24
141 SS (47%)·146 abs·0/13 td·169s ctrl
W
Mark MadsenLW
KO/TKO
R14:42
Nov '23
36 SS (55%)·35 abs·19s ctrl·1 kd
NC
King GreenVeteranLW
Could Not …
R1
Apr '23
17 SS (32%)·23 abs·0/1 td
View full fight log →
Costa — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Arnold AllenVeteranTITLEFW
U-DEC
R5
May '26
100 SS (39%)·98 abs·0/4 td·7 td taken·105s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Dan IgeVeteranFW
KO/TKO
R14:56
Feb '26
19 SS (48%)·7 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·32s ctrl·1 kd
W
Morgan CharriereFW
KO/TKO
R11:14
Dec '25
4 SS (44%)·2 abs·1 kd
W
Julian ErosaVeteranFW
U-DEC
R3
May '25
102 SS (50%)·69 abs·2/3 td·3 td taken·23s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Christian RodriguezFW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '25
65 SS (62%)·64 abs·1/2 td·6 td taken·293s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Andre FiliVeteranFW
SUB
R14:30
Feb '25
27 SS (48%)·7 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Thiago MoisesSplit result
W
Gordon
KO/TKO·R1·2025
L
Costa
Sub·R2·2023
Matchup·LW·3R
↑UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
10/13←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Jared Gordon

“Flash”
21-9(1 NC)18 UFC6mo ago
5'9"ht68"reachOrthodox38 yrs
VS·LW·3R
Blue Corner

Melquizael Costa

“The Dalmatian”
26-810 UFC6mo ago
5'10"ht71"+3"reachSouthpaw30 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingGordonSlight edge
DurabilityCosta
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.CostaDominant
Signals
3
SOUTHPAWCosta is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.
AGE GAPGordon is 8 years older than Costa.
WC TRANSITIONCosta is in their 3rd fight into a move up from Featherweight. Record at Lightweight: 0-2.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Gordon+1.46
Costa+1.10
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Gordon
Gordon0.95
Costa0.61
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Gordon66%
Costa58%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
Costa
Gordon
49Average
Costa
75Durable
Stats
Gordon
Costa
Striking
5.57SS Landed / min4.29
53%Str Acc47%
4.11SS Absorbed / min3.19
55%Str Def50%
0.11KD / fight0.20
Grappling
1.91TD / min1.53
60%TD Def50%
0.00Sub Att · /15m0.80
80%Sub Def75%
Finish History
Gordon
KO/TKO ×3
Finish Rate (Wins)
33%
3/9
Stopped Rate (Losses)
75%
6/8
Costa
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
57%
4/7
Stopped Rate (Losses)
67%
2/3
Gordon44% distance
Finish 56%Decision 44%
Costa40% distance
Finish 60%Decision 40%
Gordon 18 UFC fights·Costa 10 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Gordon
10.5min
Costa
10.8min
Combined Distance Rate
43%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
GordonWinCosta
33%
KO
29%
0%
Sub
29%
67%
Dec
43%
9 wins3 KO6 Dec
3 Dec2 Sub2 KO7 wins
GordonLossCosta
50%
KO
33%
25%
Sub
33%
25%
Dec
33%
8 losses4 KO2 Sub2 Dec
1 Dec1 Sub1 KO3 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Gordon
to knock out
Costa
43High
Costa
to knock out
Gordon
48High
Gordon
to submit
Costa
14Low
Costa
to submit
Gordon
62Elite
Recent Form
Gordon
Stat
Costa
4.04
5.57 career
↓1.53
SLpMOutput
↓0.34
3.95
4.29 career
5.37
4.11 career
↑1.26
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.24
3.43
3.19 career
4.60
5.49 career
↓0.89
TD AttAtt/15m
↓1.91
2.41
4.32 career
—
SubAtt/15m
↓0.80
0.00
0.80 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Gordon—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Jim MillerEliteLW Bout
SUB · R1 · 3:29 · May '26
7 SS (44%)·9 abs·2/2 td·44s ctrl
L
Rafa GarciaLW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 2:27 · Sep '25
65 SS (35%)·91 abs·1/3 td·2 td taken·9s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Thiago MoisesVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:37 · May '25
7 SS (54%)·5 abs·1/1 td·156s ctrl·1 kd
L
Nasrat HaqparastVeteranLW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
141 SS (47%)·146 abs·0/13 td·169s ctrl
W
Mark MadsenLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:42 · Nov '23
36 SS (55%)·35 abs·19s ctrl·1 kd
NC
King GreenVeteranLW Bout
Could Not … · R1 · Apr '23
17 SS (32%)·23 abs·0/1 td
View full fight log →
Costa—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Arnold AllenVeteranTITLEFW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · May '26
100 SS (39%)·98 abs·0/4 td·7 td taken·105s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Dan IgeVeteranFW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:56 · Feb '26
19 SS (48%)·7 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·32s ctrl·1 kd
W
Morgan CharriereFW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:14 · Dec '25
4 SS (44%)·2 abs·1 kd
W
Julian ErosaVeteranFW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '25
102 SS (50%)·69 abs·2/3 td·3 td taken·23s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Christian RodriguezFW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25
65 SS (62%)·64 abs·1/2 td·6 td taken·293s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Andre FiliVeteranFW Bout
SUB · R1 · 4:30 · Feb '25
27 SS (48%)·7 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Thiago MoisesSplit result
W
Gordon
KO/TKO·R1·2025
L
Costa
Sub·R2·2023
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X