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Matchup Analysis·Heavyweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez3 / 12
←Blachowicz vs StirlingTodorovic vs Valentin→
Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

“Rocket”
14-611 UFCLast9mo ago
Kickboxer
Declining
Title Fight
High Wear
6'4"ht·78"reach·Orthodoxstance·346yrage
VS
Heavyweight265 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Marcin Tybura

“Tybur”
27-1124 UFCLast4mo ago
Balanced
Declining
4× Title
4× 5R
Output Builds Late
High Wear
6'3"ht·78"reach·Orthodoxstance·40age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingRakicSlight edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
2 signals
AGE GAP

Tybura is 6 years older than Rakic.

WC DEBUT

Rakic is making their UFC debut at Heavyweight, moving up from Light Heavyweight.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Rakic
Rakic
+1.27
Tybura
+0.30
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
No edge
Rakic
0.19
Tybura
0.20
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Rakic
69%
Tybura
55%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Rakic
40
Low
Tybura
51
Average
3 KO lossesKO losses5 KO losses
0.18KD / fight0.25
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Rakic4.13SLpM
+
SLpM3.56Tybura
7.7
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Tybura
RakicOutput Holds Steady-17% R1→R3
TyburaOutput Builds Late+35% R1→R3
Finish History
Rakic
KO/TKO ×2
Finish rate (wins)
33%
2/6
Stopped rate (losses)
60%
3/5
Tybura
KO/TKO ×5Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
43%
6/14
Stopped rate (losses)
60%
6/10
Edge & Exposure
Rakic
EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

ExposureWear Concern

High accumulated UFC fight volume. Susceptible to opponents who apply pressure in later rounds.

Tybura
ExposureMileage Risk

Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.

Opposition Quality
Rakic6–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–5
Record (11)
+1.2
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-46% step-up
2–2
Record (4)
+0.2
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Tybura14–10UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
9–7
Record (16)
-0.6
Str Diff/Min
44%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+37% step-up
4–2
Record (6)
+0.8
Str Diff/Min
25%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
RakicHeavyweightTybura
79th
Striking Differential
49th
32nd
Grappling Threat
65th
87th
Round Win Rate
58th
81st
TD Defense
57th
29th
Durability
44th
7th
Finishing Rate
16th
Recent Form
Rakic
Stat
Tybura
4.534.13 career
↑0.40
SLpMOutput
↓0.07
3.493.56 career
4.802.86 career
⚠↑1.94
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.05
3.213.26 career
1.702.94 career
⚠↓1.24
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓2.51
1.403.91 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Rakic55% distance
Finish 45%Decision 55%
Tybura50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Rakic 11 UFC fights·Tybura 24 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Rakic
10.7min
Tybura
11.0min
Combined Distance Rate
51%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
RakicTO KNOCK OUTTybura
56
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins6
Tybura's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses5
Total UFC losses10
TyburaTO KNOCK OUTRakic
48
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins5
Total UFC wins14
Rakic's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses5
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
RakicTO SUBMITTybura
12
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins6
Tybura's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses10
TyburaTO SUBMITRakic
10
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins14
Rakic's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses5
RakicWin MethodTybura
33%
KO / TKO
36%
0%
Submission
7%
67%
Decision
57%
6 UFC wins · 2 KO · 4 Dec14 UFC wins · 5 KO · 1 Sub · 8 Dec
Rakic
Loss Method
Tybura
60%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
10%
40%
Decision
40%
5 UFC losses · 3 KO · 2 Dec10 UFC losses · 5 KO · 1 Sub · 4 Dec
Rakic5 stoppages · 5 KO
R1
3
R2
1
R3
1
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
LKOAzamat MurzakanovR1 · 3:11
LKOJiri ProchazkaR2 · 3:17
LKOJan BlachowiczR3 · 1:11
WKOJimi ManuwaR1 · 0:47
WKODevin ClarkR1 · 4:05
Tybura12 stoppages · 10 KO · 2 Sub
R1
6
R2
4
R3
2
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOAnte DelijaR1 · 2:03
WKOJhonata DinizR2 · 5:00
LSubSerghei SpivacR1 · 1:44
WSubTai TuivasaR1 · 4:08
LKOTom AspinallR1 · 1:13
Historical Context
Rakic — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Azamat MurzakanovLHW
KO/TKO
R13:11
Oct '25
9 SS (64%)·3 abs·0/2 td·36s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Magomed AnkalaevVeteranLHW
U-DEC
R3
Oct '24
53 SS (45%)·55 abs·0/1 td·60s ctrl
L
Jiri ProchazkaLHW
KO/TKO
R23:17
Apr '24
58 SS (53%)·69 abs·1 td taken
L
Jan BlachowiczVeteranTITLELHW
KO/TKO
R31:11
May '22
27 SS (32%)·31 abs·1/4 td·273s ctrl
W
Thiago SantosVeteranLHW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '21
36 SS (40%)·49 abs·0/2 td·152s ctrl
W
Anthony SmithVeteranLHW
U-DEC
R3
Aug '20
44 SS (77%)·9 abs·734s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Tybura — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Tyrell FortuneHW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '26
47 SS (43%)·30 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·41s ctrl
L
Ante DelijaHW
KO/TKO
R12:03
Sep '25
4 SS (44%)·13 abs·78s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Mick ParkinHW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '25
61 SS (39%)·60 abs·1/2 td·1 td taken·61s ctrl
W
Jhonata DinizHW
KO/TKO
R25:00
Nov '24
35 SS (71%)·15 abs·1/3 td·434s ctrl
L
Serghei SpivacTITLEHW
SUB
R11:44
Aug '24
0 SS (0%)·3 abs·1 td taken·43s ctrl
W
Tai TuivasaVeteranTITLEHW
SUB
R14:08
Mar '24
27 SS (66%)·15 abs·1/4 td·168s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Matchup·HW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
3/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

“Rocket”
14-611 UFC9mo ago
6'4"ht78"reachOrthodox34 yrs
VS·HW·3R
Blue Corner

Marcin Tybura

“Tybur”
27-1124 UFC4mo ago
6'3"ht78"reachOrthodox40 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingRakicSlight edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingNo edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.No edge
Signals
2
AGE GAPTybura is 6 years older than Rakic.
WC DEBUTRakic is making their UFC debut at Heavyweight, moving up from Light Heavyweight.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Rakic
Rakic+1.27
Tybura+0.30
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
No edge
Rakic0.19
Tybura0.20
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Rakic69%
Tybura55%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Rakic
40Low
Tybura
51Average
Stats
Rakic
Tybura
Striking
4.13SS Landed / min3.56
50%Str Acc48%
2.86SS Absorbed / min3.26
51%Str Def55%
0.36KD / fight0.04
Grappling
0.64TD / min1.30
85%TD Def70%
0.10Sub Att · /15m0.10
100%Sub Def50%
Finish History
Rakic
KO/TKO ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
33%
2/6
Stopped Rate (Losses)
60%
3/5
Tybura
KO/TKO ×5Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
43%
6/14
Stopped Rate (Losses)
60%
6/10
Rakic55% distance
Finish 45%Decision 55%
Tybura50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Rakic 11 UFC fights·Tybura 24 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Rakic
10.7min
Tybura
11.0min
Combined Distance Rate
51%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
RakicWinTybura
33%
KO
36%
0%
Sub
7%
67%
Dec
57%
6 wins2 KO4 Dec
8 Dec1 Sub5 KO14 wins
RakicLossTybura
60%
KO
50%
0%
Sub
10%
40%
Dec
40%
5 losses3 KO2 Dec
4 Dec1 Sub5 KO10 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Rakic
to knock out
Tybura
56Elite
Tybura
to knock out
Rakic
48High
Rakic
to submit
Tybura
12Low
Tybura
to submit
Rakic
10Minimal
Recent Form
Rakic
Stat
Tybura
4.53
4.13 career
↑0.40
SLpMOutput
↓0.07
3.49
3.56 career
4.80
2.86 career
↑1.94
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.05
3.21
3.26 career
1.70
2.94 career
↓1.24
TD AttAtt/15m
↓2.51
1.40
3.91 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Rakic—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Azamat MurzakanovLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:11 · Oct '25
9 SS (64%)·3 abs·0/2 td·36s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Magomed AnkalaevVeteranLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '24
53 SS (45%)·55 abs·0/1 td·60s ctrl
L
Jiri ProchazkaLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 3:17 · Apr '24
58 SS (53%)·69 abs·1 td taken
L
Jan BlachowiczVeteranTITLELHW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 1:11 · May '22
27 SS (32%)·31 abs·1/4 td·273s ctrl
W
Thiago SantosVeteranLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '21
36 SS (40%)·49 abs·0/2 td·152s ctrl
W
Anthony SmithVeteranLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Aug '20
44 SS (77%)·9 abs·734s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Tybura—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Tyrell FortuneHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '26
47 SS (43%)·30 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·41s ctrl
L
Ante DelijaHW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:03 · Sep '25
4 SS (44%)·13 abs·78s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Mick ParkinHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25
61 SS (39%)·60 abs·1/2 td·1 td taken·61s ctrl
W
Jhonata DinizHW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 5:00 · Nov '24
35 SS (71%)·15 abs·1/3 td·434s ctrl
L
Serghei SpivacTITLEHW Bout
SUB · R1 · 1:44 · Aug '24
0 SS (0%)·3 abs·1 td taken·43s ctrl
W
Tai TuivasaVeteranTITLEHW Bout
SUB · R1 · 4:08 · Mar '24
27 SS (66%)·15 abs·1/4 td·168s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X