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Matchup Analysis·Light Heavyweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez2 / 12
←Medic vs RodriguezRakic vs Tybura→
Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

29-11-222 UFCLast8mo ago
Balanced
Declining
8× Title
8× 5R
High Wear
6'2"ht·78"reach·Orthodoxstance·43age
VS
Light Heavyweight205 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Navajo Stirling

10-05 UFCLastthis month
Pressure Fighter
Hot Streak
Output Builds Late
6'4"+2"ht·79"reach·Orthodoxstance·2815yrage
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingStirlingDominant
DecisionStirlingDominant
GrapplingStirlingSlight edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
1 signal
AGE GAP

Blachowicz is 15 years older than Stirling.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Stirling
Blachowicz
+0.41
Stirling
+3.58
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Stirling
Blachowicz
0.18
Stirling
0.30
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Stirling
Blachowicz
59%
Stirling
100%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Blachowicz
94
Ironclad
Stirling
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Blachowicz3.55SLpM
+
SLpM6.25Stirling
9.8
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
BlachowiczOutput Builds Late+23% R1→R3
StirlingOutput Builds Late+61% R1→R3
Finish History
Blachowicz
KO/TKO ×5Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
58%
7/12
Stopped rate (losses)
25%
2/8
Stirling
KO/TKO ×2
Finish rate (wins)
40%
2/5
Stopped rate (losses)
—
—
Edge & Exposure
Blachowicz
ExposureMileage Risk

Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.

Stirling
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Opposition Quality
Blachowicz12–8UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
11–7
Record (20)
+0.6
Str Diff/Min
64%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-24% step-up
3–4
Record (8)
-0.3
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
Stirling5–0UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks
BlachowiczLight HeavyweightStirling
58th
Striking Differential
99th
63rd
Grappling Threat
48th
73rd
Round Win Rate
99th
54th
TD Defense
77th
99th
Durability
96th
25th
Finishing Rate
11th
Recent Form
Blachowicz
Stat
Stirling
4.333.55 career
↑0.78
SLpMOutput
↓0.21
6.046.25 career
5.003.14 career
⚠↑1.86
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.10
2.772.67 career
3.002.00 career
↑1.00
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.09
2.312.40 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Blachowicz59% distance
Finish 41%Decision 59%
Stirling60% distance
Finish 40%Decision 60%
Blachowicz 22 UFC fights·Stirling 5 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Blachowicz
13.3min
Stirling
12.5min
Combined Distance Rate
59%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
BlachowiczTO KNOCK OUTStirling
32
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins5
Total UFC wins12
Stirling's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses0
StirlingTO KNOCK OUTBlachowicz
35
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins5
Blachowicz's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses8
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
BlachowiczTO SUBMITStirling
20
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins12
Stirling's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses0
StirlingTO SUBMITBlachowicz
15
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins5
Blachowicz's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses8
BlachowiczWin MethodStirling
42%
KO / TKO
40%
17%
Submission
0%
42%
Decision
60%
12 UFC wins · 5 KO · 2 Sub · 5 Dec5 UFC wins · 2 KO · 3 Dec
Blachowicz
Loss Method
Stirling
13%
KO / TKO
—
13%
Submission
—
75%
Decision
—
8 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 6 DecNo UFC losses
Blachowicz9 stoppages · 6 KO · 3 Sub
R1
2
R2
5
R3
2
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKOAleksandar RakicR3 · 1:11
LSubGlover TeixeiraR2 · 3:02
WKODominick ReyesR2 · 4:36
WKOCorey AndersonR1 · 3:08
WKOLuke RockholdR2 · 1:39
Stirling2 stoppages · 2 KO
R1
0
R2
2
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
All stoppages
WKOIon CutelabaR2 · 3:23
WKOBruno LopesR2 · 4:05
Historical Context
Blachowicz — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
D
Bogdan GuskovLHW
M-DEC
R3
Dec '25
84 SS (56%)·80 abs·8s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken·1 sub att
L
Carlos UlbergVeteranLHW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '25
59 SS (45%)·75 abs·0/1 td
L
Alex PereiraLHW
S-DEC
R3
Jul '23
52 SS (64%)·70 abs·3/8 td·452s ctrl·2 sub att
D
Magomed AnkalaevVeteranTITLELHW
S-DEC
R5
Dec '22
55 SS (47%)·78 abs·2 td taken
W
Aleksandar RakicTITLELHW
KO/TKO
R31:11
May '22
31 SS (44%)·27 abs·1 td taken·1 sub att
L
Glover TeixeiraEliteTITLELHW
SUB
R23:02
Oct '21
28 SS (62%)·23 abs·2 td taken·15s ctrl
View full fight log →
Stirling — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
W
Ion CutelabaVeteranLHW
KO/TKO
R23:23
Jun '26
52 SS (74%)·19 abs·0/1 td·5 td taken·113s ctrl
W
Bruno LopesLHW
KO/TKO
R24:05
Mar '26
63 SS (53%)·28 abs·91s ctrl·1 kd
W
Rodolfo BellatoLHW
U-DEC
R3
Sep '25
81 SS (51%)·43 abs·1/4 td·2 td taken·233s ctrl
W
Ivan ErslanLHW
U-DEC
R3
May '25
110 SS (49%)·36 abs·3/5 td·181s ctrl·1 kd
W
Tuco TokkosLHW
U-DEC
R3
Dec '24
78 SS (50%)·32 abs·3 td taken·54s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WPhillip Latu
DWCSKO/TKOR2Sep 2024
View full fight log →
Matchup·LHW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
2/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

29-11-222 UFC8mo ago
6'2"ht78"reachOrthodox43 yrs
VS·LHW·3R
Blue Corner

Navajo Stirling

10-05 UFCthis month
6'4"+2"ht79"reachOrthodox28 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingStirlingDominant
DecisionStirlingDominant
GrapplingStirlingSlight edge
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.No edge
Signals
1
AGE GAPBlachowicz is 15 years older than Stirling.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Stirling
Blachowicz+0.41
Stirling+3.58
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Stirling
Blachowicz0.18
Stirling0.30
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Stirling
Blachowicz59%
Stirling100%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Blachowicz
94Ironclad
Stirling
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Stats
Blachowicz
Stirling
Striking
3.55SS Landed / min6.25
50%Str Acc52%
3.14SS Absorbed / min2.67
52%Str Def58%
0.32KD / fight0.40
Grappling
0.98TD / min0.98
69%TD Def82%
0.40Sub Att · /15m0.00
75%Sub Def100%
Finish History
Blachowicz
KO/TKO ×5Sub ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
58%
7/12
Stopped Rate (Losses)
25%
2/8
Stirling
KO/TKO ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
40%
2/5
Stopped Rate (Losses)
—
—
Blachowicz59% distance
Finish 41%Decision 59%
Stirling60% distance
Finish 40%Decision 60%
Blachowicz 22 UFC fights·Stirling 5 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Blachowicz
13.3min
Stirling
12.5min
Combined Distance Rate
59%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
BlachowiczWinStirling
42%
KO
40%
17%
Sub
0%
42%
Dec
60%
12 wins5 KO2 Sub5 Dec
3 Dec2 KO5 wins
BlachowiczLossStirling
13%
KO
—
13%
Sub
—
75%
Dec
—
8 losses1 KO1 Sub6 Dec
—
CQ Finish Risk
Blachowicz
to knock out
Stirling
32Elevated
Stirling
to knock out
Blachowicz
35Elevated
Blachowicz
to submit
Stirling
20Low
Stirling
to submit
Blachowicz
15Low
Recent Form
Blachowicz
Stat
Stirling
4.33
3.55 career
↑0.78
SLpMOutput
↓0.21
6.04
6.25 career
5.00
3.14 career
↑1.86
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.10
2.77
2.67 career
3.00
2.00 career
↑1.00
TD AttAtt/15m
↓0.09
2.31
2.40 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Blachowicz—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
D
Bogdan GuskovLHW Bout
M-DEC · R3 · Dec '25
84 SS (56%)·80 abs·8s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken·1 sub att
L
Carlos UlbergVeteranLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25
59 SS (45%)·75 abs·0/1 td
L
Alex PereiraLHW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Jul '23
52 SS (64%)·70 abs·3/8 td·452s ctrl·2 sub att
D
Magomed AnkalaevVeteranTITLELHW Bout
S-DEC · R5 · Dec '22
55 SS (47%)·78 abs·2 td taken
W
Aleksandar RakicTITLELHW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 1:11 · May '22
31 SS (44%)·27 abs·1 td taken·1 sub att
L
Glover TeixeiraEliteTITLELHW Bout
SUB · R2 · 3:02 · Oct '21
28 SS (62%)·23 abs·2 td taken·15s ctrl
View full fight log →
Stirling—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
W
Ion CutelabaVeteranLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 3:23 · Jun '26
52 SS (74%)·19 abs·0/1 td·5 td taken·113s ctrl
W
Bruno LopesLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:05 · Mar '26
63 SS (53%)·28 abs·91s ctrl·1 kd
W
Rodolfo BellatoLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Sep '25
81 SS (51%)·43 abs·1/4 td·2 td taken·233s ctrl
W
Ivan ErslanLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '25
110 SS (49%)·36 abs·3/5 td·181s ctrl·1 kd
W
Tuco TokkosLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Dec '24
78 SS (50%)·32 abs·3 td taken·54s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WPhillip Latu
DWCSKO/TKOR2Sep 2024
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X