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Matchup Analysis·Women's Strawweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song2 / 13
←Nurmagomedov vs YadongAoriqileng vs Asakura→
Red Corner

Yan Xiaonan

19-5(1 NC)13 UFCLast1.4yr ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
2× Title
2× 5R
Goes Long
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
5'5"+3"ht·63"reach·Orthodoxstance·37age
VS
Women's Strawweight115 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Denise Gomes

“Dee”
12-38 UFCLast10mo ago
Kickboxer
Hot Streak
Early Chaos
Output Drops Late
5'2"ht·63"reach·Orthodoxstance·2611yrage
CQ
EdgesDecision Likely
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingGomesSlight edge
KO Adv.GomesDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
3 signals
CARDIO

Gomes's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.

RING RUST

Xiaonan is returning after 16 months out.

AGE GAP

Xiaonan is 11 years older than Gomes.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Xiaonan
+1.46
Gomes
+1.27
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Gomes
Xiaonan
0.29
Gomes
0.52
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Xiaonan
68%
Gomes
65%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Xiaonan
84
Durable
Gomes
94
Ironclad
1 KO lossKO losses0 KO losses
0.00KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Xiaonan4.69SLpM
+
SLpM4.43Gomes
9.1
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Xiaonan
XiaonanOutput Builds Late+34% R1→R3
GomesOutput Drops Late
Finish History
Xiaonan
KO/TKO ×1
Finish rate (wins)
11%
1/9
Stopped rate (losses)
25%
1/4
Gomes
KO/TKO ×3
Finish rate (wins)
50%
3/6
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/2
Edge & Exposure
Xiaonan
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Gomes
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

ExposureFades Hard

Output drops significantly in later rounds. Extended fights are a structural disadvantage.

Opposition Quality
Xiaonan9–4UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–4
Record (9)
+1.2
Str Diff/Min
20%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-60% step-up
1–2
Record (3)
+0.2
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Gomes6–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–1
Record (6)
+1.4
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+19% step-up
2–1
Record (3)
+0.2
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
XiaonanWomen's StrawweightGomes
87th
Striking Differential
84th
57th
Grappling Threat
51st
85th
Round Win Rate
79th
54th
TD Defense
62nd
52nd
Durability
83rd
1st
Finishing Rate
65th
Recent Form
Xiaonan
Stat
Gomes
2.514.69 career
⚠↓2.18
SLpMOutput
↓0.09
4.344.43 career
2.403.23 career
↓0.83
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.08
3.243.16 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑1.85
6.764.91 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.28
0.420.70 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Decision Likely
Xiaonan85% distance
Finish 15%Decision 85%
Gomes63% distance
Finish 37%Decision 63%
Xiaonan 13 UFC fights·Gomes 8 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Xiaonan
15.0min
Gomes
11.1min
Combined Distance Rate
76%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
XiaonanTO KNOCK OUTGomes
16
Low
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins1
Total UFC wins9
Gomes's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses2
GomesTO KNOCK OUTXiaonan
41
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins6
Xiaonan's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses4
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
XiaonanTO SUBMITGomes
5
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins9
Gomes's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses2
GomesTO SUBMITXiaonan
10
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins6
Xiaonan's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses4
XiaonanWin MethodGomes
11%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
0%
89%
Decision
50%
9 UFC wins · 1 KO · 8 Dec6 UFC wins · 3 KO · 3 Dec
Xiaonan
Loss Method
Gomes
25%
KO / TKO
0%
0%
Submission
0%
75%
Decision
100%
4 UFC losses · 1 KO · 3 Dec2 UFC losses · 2 Dec
Xiaonan2 stoppages · 2 KO
R1
1
R2
1
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
WKOJessica AndradeR1 · 2:20
LKOCarla EsparzaR2 · 2:58
Gomes3 stoppages · 3 KO
R1
1
R2
2
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
All stoppages
WKOElise ReedR2 · 0:30
WKOYazmin JaureguiR1 · 0:20
WKOBruna BrasilR2 · 2:42
Historical Context
Xiaonan — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Virna JandirobaW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Apr '25
17 SS (39%)·11 abs·3 td taken·27s ctrl
W
Tabatha RicciW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '24
78 SS (48%)·15 abs·1 td taken
L
Zhang WeiliVeteranTITLEW.SW
U-DEC
R5
Apr '24
43 SS (51%)·106 abs·3/3 td·6 td taken·140s ctrl·1 kd
W
Jessica AndradeEliteW.SW
KO/TKO
R12:20
May '23
26 SS (72%)·12 abs·1 kd
W
Mackenzie DernTITLEW.SW
M-DEC
R5
Oct '22
113 SS (58%)·61 abs·2 td taken·251s ctrl
L
Marina RodriguezW.SW
S-DEC
R3
Mar '22
56 SS (42%)·72 abs·2/4 td·93s ctrl
View full fight log →
Gomes — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·8 fights
W
Tecia PenningtonVeteranW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '25
53 SS (38%)·58 abs·3/10 td·1 td taken·231s ctrl
W
Elise ReedW.SW
KO/TKO
R20:30
May '25
28 SS (67%)·11 abs·3/3 td·254s ctrl·1 kd
W
Karolina KowalkiewiczVeteranW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '24
73 SS (51%)·46 abs·0/3 td·347s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Eduarda MouraW.SW
S-DEC
R3
Jun '24
50 SS (57%)·18 abs·0/1 td·5 td taken·140s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Angela HillVeteranW.SW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '23
62 SS (47%)·76 abs·1/3 td·5 td taken·63s ctrl
W
Yazmin JaureguiW.SW
KO/TKO
R10:20
Jul '23
17 SS (85%)·0 abs·10s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Karolina KowalkiewiczSame result
W
Xiaonan
UD·R3·2020
W
Gomes
UD·R3·2024
Angela HillSplit result
W
Xiaonan
UD·R3·2019
L
Gomes
UD·R3·2023
Matchup·W. SW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2/13←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Yan Xiaonan

19-5(1 NC)13 UFC1.4yr ago
5'5"+3"ht63"reachOrthodox37 yrs
VS·W. SW·3R
Blue Corner

Denise Gomes

“Dee”
12-38 UFC10mo ago
5'2"ht63"reachOrthodox26 yrs
CQ
Edges
Decision Likely
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingGomesSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.GomesDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
Signals
3
CARDIOGomes's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.
RING RUSTXiaonan is returning after 16 months out.
AGE GAPXiaonan is 11 years older than Gomes.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Xiaonan+1.46
Gomes+1.27
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Gomes
Xiaonan0.29
Gomes0.52
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Xiaonan68%
Gomes65%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Xiaonan
84Durable
Gomes
94Ironclad
Stats
Xiaonan
Gomes
Striking
4.69SS Landed / min4.43
45%Str Acc49%
3.23SS Absorbed / min3.16
60%Str Def51%
0.15KD / fight0.38
Grappling
0.84TD / min1.45
64%TD Def66%
0.00Sub Att · /15m0.70
100%Sub Def—
Finish History
Xiaonan
KO/TKO ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
11%
1/9
Stopped Rate (Losses)
25%
1/4
Gomes
KO/TKO ×3
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
3/6
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/2
Xiaonan85% distance
Finish 15%Decision 85%
Gomes63% distance
Finish 37%Decision 63%
Xiaonan 13 UFC fights·Gomes 8 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Xiaonan
15.0min
Gomes
11.1min
Combined Distance Rate
76%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
XiaonanWinGomes
11%
KO
50%
0%
Sub
0%
89%
Dec
50%
9 wins1 KO8 Dec
3 Dec3 KO6 wins
XiaonanLossGomes
25%
KO
0%
0%
Sub
0%
75%
Dec
100%
4 losses1 KO3 Dec
2 Dec2 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Xiaonan
to knock out
Gomes
16Low
Gomes
to knock out
Xiaonan
41High
Xiaonan
to submit
Gomes
5Minimal
Gomes
to submit
Xiaonan
10Minimal
Recent Form
Xiaonan
Stat
Gomes
2.51
4.69 career
↓2.18
SLpMOutput
↓0.09
4.34
4.43 career
2.40
3.23 career
↓0.83
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.08
3.24
3.16 career
—
TD AttAtt/15m
↑1.85
6.76
4.91 career
—
SubAtt/15m
↓0.28
0.42
0.70 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Xiaonan—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Virna JandirobaW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Apr '25
17 SS (39%)·11 abs·3 td taken·27s ctrl
W
Tabatha RicciW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '24
78 SS (48%)·15 abs·1 td taken
L
Zhang WeiliVeteranTITLEW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Apr '24
43 SS (51%)·106 abs·3/3 td·6 td taken·140s ctrl·1 kd
W
Jessica AndradeEliteW. SW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:20 · May '23
26 SS (72%)·12 abs·1 kd
W
Mackenzie DernTITLEW. SW Bout
M-DEC · R5 · Oct '22
113 SS (58%)·61 abs·2 td taken·251s ctrl
L
Marina RodriguezW. SW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Mar '22
56 SS (42%)·72 abs·2/4 td·93s ctrl
View full fight log →
Gomes—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·8 fights
W
Tecia PenningtonVeteranW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '25
53 SS (38%)·58 abs·3/10 td·1 td taken·231s ctrl
W
Elise ReedW. SW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 0:30 · May '25
28 SS (67%)·11 abs·3/3 td·254s ctrl·1 kd
W
Karolina KowalkiewiczVeteranW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '24
73 SS (51%)·46 abs·0/3 td·347s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Eduarda MouraW. SW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
50 SS (57%)·18 abs·0/1 td·5 td taken·140s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Angela HillVeteranW. SW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '23
62 SS (47%)·76 abs·1/3 td·5 td taken·63s ctrl
W
Yazmin JaureguiW. SW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 0:20 · Jul '23
17 SS (85%)·0 abs·10s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Angela HillSplit result
W
Xiaonan
UD·R3·2019
L
Gomes
UD·R3·2023
Karolina KowalkiewiczSame result
W
Xiaonan
UD·R3·2020
W
Gomes
UD·R3·2024
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CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X