Matchup Analysis·Heavyweight
Red Corner
Serghei Spivac
“Polar Bear”
18-615 UFCLast6mo ago
Wrestler
3× Title
3× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
High Wear
6'3"ht·78"reach·Orthodoxstance·31age
VS
Heavyweight265 lbs
3R
Blue Corner
14-29 UFCLast5mo ago
Wrestler
Rising
Output Builds Late
6'2"ht·77"reach·Orthodoxstance·28age
Signals1 signal
WC TRANSITION
Petrino is in their 3rd fight into a move up from Light Heavyweight. Record at Heavyweight: 3-0.
CQ Core Edges
Spivac
-0.66
Petrino
+0.53
Spivac
0.80
Petrino
0.96
Spivac
52%
Petrino
55%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Spivac
39
LowPetrino
72
Durable4 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.13KD / fight0.22
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Spivac3.57SLpM
+SLpM3.24Petrino
6.8
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
SpivacOutput Builds Late+38% R1→R3
PetrinoOutput Builds Late+35% R1→R3
Finish History
Spivac
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×3
Finish rate (wins)
67%
6/9
Stopped rate (losses)
67%
4/6
Petrino
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
57%
4/7
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
2/2
Edge & Exposure
Spivac
EdgeGrappling Dominant
Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.
ExposureWear Concern
High accumulated UFC fight volume. Susceptible to opponents who apply pressure in later rounds.
Petrino
EdgeGrappling Dominant
Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
Opposition Quality
Spivac9–6UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
7–4
Record (11)
-0.6
Str Diff/Min
86%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-8% step-up
3–2
Record (5)
-1.3
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
Petrino7–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
3–2
Record (5)
+0.5
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
SpivacHeavyweightPetrino
23rd
Striking Differential
56th94th
Grappling Threat
85th47th
Round Win Rate
58th42nd
TD Defense
75th28th
Durability
63rd49th
Finishing Rate
36thRecent Form
Spivac
Stat
Petrino
3.733.57 career
↑0.16
SLpMOutput
↑1.00
4.243.24 career
5.564.23 career
⚠↑1.33
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.02
2.692.71 career
4.736.45 career
⚠↓1.72
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.59
5.566.15 career
0.000.50 career
↓0.50
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↑0.31
1.010.70 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Spivac33% distance
Finish 67%Decision 33%
Petrino33% distance
Finish 67%Decision 33%
Spivac 15 UFC fights·Petrino 9 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Spivac
8.4min
Petrino
10.6min
Combined Distance Rate
33%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
SpivacTO KNOCK OUTPetrino
44
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins9
Petrino's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses2
PetrinoTO KNOCK OUTSpivac
52
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins7
Spivac's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses4
Total UFC losses6
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
SpivacTO SUBMITPetrino
70
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins3
Total UFC wins9
Petrino's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses2
PetrinoTO SUBMITSpivac
18
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins7
Spivac's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses6
SpivacWin MethodPetrino
33%
KO / TKO
29%
33%
Submission
29%
33%
Decision
43%
9 UFC wins · 3 KO · 3 Sub · 3 Dec7 UFC wins · 2 KO · 2 Sub · 3 Dec
Spivac
Loss Method
Petrino67%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
50%
33%
Decision
0%
6 UFC losses · 4 KO · 2 Dec2 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub
Spivac10 stoppages · 7 KO · 3 Sub
R1
6
R2
4
R30
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
All stoppages
LKOJailton AlmeidaR1 · 4:53
WSubMarcin TyburaR1 · 1:44
LKOCiryl GaneR2 · 3:44
WSubDerrick LewisR1 · 3:05
WKOAugusto SakaiR2 · 3:42
Petrino6 stoppages · 3 KO · 3 Sub
R1
2
R2
1
R3
3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKOThomas PetersenR3 · 0:26
WSubAusten LaneR1 · 4:16
LKODustin JacobyR3 · 3:44
LSubAnthony SmithR1 · 2:00
WKOModestas BukauskasR2 · 1:03
Historical Context
Spivac — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
67 SS (45%)·61 abs·1/4 td·180s ctrl
48 SS (40%)·110 abs·2/6 td·145s ctrl
15 SS (54%)·23 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·128s ctrl
3 SS (60%)·0 abs·1/1 td·34s ctrl·1 sub att
11 SS (25%)·109 abs·0/1 td
12 SS (57%)·0 abs·6/8 td·152s ctrl·1 sub att
Petrino — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·9 fights
92 SS (57%)·61 abs·0/4 td·77s ctrl·1 kd taken
31 SS (57%)·16 abs·1/6 td·183s ctrl·2 kd
3 SS (50%)·3 abs·1/1 td·183s ctrl·2 sub att
40 SS (42%)·45 abs·0/4 td·40s ctrl·1 kd taken
10 SS (45%)·11 abs·1/2 td·14s ctrl
27 SS (36%)·30 abs·3/5 td·324s ctrl