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Matchup Analysis·Middleweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues1 / 13
←Spivac vs Petrino→
Red Corner

Anthony Hernandez

“Fluffy”
15-3(1 NC)12 UFCLast6mo ago
Complete Fighter
3× Title
3× 5R
High Variance
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
6'0"ht·75"reach·Orthodoxstance·32age
VS
Middleweight185 lbs
5R
Blue Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

“Robocop”
19-613 UFCLast5mo ago
Complete Fighter
Title Fight
High Variance
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
6'3"+3"ht·75"reach·Orthodoxstance·34age
CQ
EdgesElevated Finish Risk
Hernandez · KO Vulnerability
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingHernandezDominant
KO Adv.RodriguesDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
1 signal
SUBMISSION

Hernandez actively hunts submissions on the ground.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Hernandez
+1.47
Rodrigues
+0.75
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Hernandez
Hernandez
1.47
Rodrigues
0.61
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Hernandez
70%
Rodrigues
71%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Hernandez
62
Average
Rodrigues
65
Average
2 KO lossesKO losses2 KO losses
0.17KD / fight0.23
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Extreme
Hernandez4.57SLpM
+
SLpM5.53Rodrigues
10.1
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Hernandez
HernandezOutput Builds Late+34% R1→R3
RodriguesOutput Holds Steady+17% R1→R3
Finish History
Hernandez
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×5
Finish rate (wins)
78%
7/9
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
3/3
Rodrigues
KO/TKO ×7
Finish rate (wins)
70%
7/10
Stopped rate (losses)
67%
2/3
Edge & Exposure
Hernandez
EdgeHigh Finisher

Finishes the majority of opponents. Gets the stoppage when ahead on the scorecards.

EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

Rodrigues
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Opposition Quality
Hernandez9–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–2
Record (8)
-1.2
Str Diff/Min
83%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+16% step-up
3–1
Record (4)
+1.4
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
Rodrigues10–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
9–3
Record (12)
+1.2
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+11% step-up
2–1
Record (3)
+0.0
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
HernandezMiddleweightRodrigues
84th
Striking Differential
67th
95th
Grappling Threat
64th
83rd
Round Win Rate
89th
58th
TD Defense
68th
43rd
Durability
49th
58th
Finishing Rate
49th
Recent Form
Hernandez
Stat
Rodrigues
3.904.57 career
↓0.67
SLpMOutput
↓0.32
5.215.53 career
3.553.10 career
↑0.45
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.81
3.974.78 career
6.6512.26 career
⚠↓5.61
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓2.58
2.845.42 career
0.331.60 career
⚠↓1.27
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Hernandez17% distance
Finish 83%Decision 17%
Rodrigues31% distance
Finish 69%Decision 31%
Hernandez 12 UFC fights·Rodrigues 13 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Hernandez
11.4min
Rodrigues
8.9min
Combined Distance Rate
24%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
HernandezTO KNOCK OUTRodrigues
41
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins9
Rodrigues's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses3
RodriguesTO KNOCK OUTHernandez
69
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins7
Total UFC wins10
Hernandez's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses3
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
HernandezTO SUBMITRodrigues
25
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins5
Total UFC wins9
Rodrigues's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses3
RodriguesTO SUBMITHernandez
26
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins10
Hernandez's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses3
HernandezWin MethodRodrigues
22%
KO / TKO
70%
56%
Submission
0%
22%
Decision
30%
9 UFC wins · 2 KO · 5 Sub · 2 Dec10 UFC wins · 7 KO · 3 Dec
Hernandez
Loss Method
Rodrigues
67%
KO / TKO
67%
33%
Submission
0%
0%
Decision
33%
3 UFC losses · 2 KO · 1 Sub3 UFC losses · 2 KO · 1 Dec
Hernandez10 stoppages · 4 KO · 6 Sub
R1
1
R2
4
R3
3
R4
1
R5
1
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOSean StricklandR3 · 2:23
WSubRoman DolidzeR4 · 2:45
WKOMichel PereiraR5 · 2:22
WSubRoman KopylovR2 · 3:23
WKOEdmen ShahbazyanR3 · 1:01
Rodrigues9 stoppages · 9 KO
R1
5
R2
2
R3
1
R4
1
R5
0
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
WKOBrunno FerreiraR1 · 1:47
WKOJack HermanssonR1 · 4:21
LKOJared CannonierR4 · 0:21
WKOBrad TavaresR3 · 0:55
WKODenis TiuliulinR1 · 1:43
Historical Context
Hernandez — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·12 fights
L
Sean StricklandEliteTITLEMW
KO/TKO
R32:23
Feb '26
55 SS (45%)·110 abs·0/1 td·32s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Roman DolidzeVeteranTITLEMW
SUB
R42:45
Aug '25
91 SS (60%)·36 abs·9/11 td·468s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Brendan AllenVeteranMW
U-DEC
R3
Feb '25
30 SS (71%)·14 abs·4/8 td·622s ctrl
W
Michel PereiraVeteranTITLEMW
KO/TKO
R52:22
Oct '24
152 SS (72%)·24 abs·10/29 td·942s ctrl
W
Roman KopylovMW
SUB
R23:23
Feb '24
34 SS (44%)·35 abs·3/14 td·245s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Edmen ShahbazyanMW
KO/TKO
R31:01
May '23
63 SS (72%)·30 abs·6/15 td·1 td taken·431s ctrl·4 sub att
View full fight log →
Rodrigues — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·13 fights
W
Brunno FerreiraMW
KO/TKO
R11:47
Mar '26
2 SS (33%)·2 abs·1 kd
W
Roman KopylovMW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '25
90 SS (52%)·52 abs·0/4 td·2 td taken·24s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Jack HermanssonVeteranMW
KO/TKO
R14:21
Jun '25
18 SS (29%)·30 abs·1 kd
L
Jared CannonierVeteranTITLEMW
KO/TKO
R40:21
Feb '25
93 SS (42%)·98 abs·0/3 td·1 td taken·17s ctrl·2 kd·2 kd taken
W
Christian Leroy DuncanMW
U-DEC
R3
Jul '24
45 SS (57%)·29 abs·4/12 td·500s ctrl
W
Brad TavaresEliteMW
KO/TKO
R30:55
Feb '24
71 SS (58%)·37 abs·2/6 td·198s ctrl
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
JunYong ParkSame result
W
Hernandez
Sub·R2·2019
W
Rodrigues
KO/TKO·R2·2021
Roman KopylovSame result
W
Hernandez
Sub·R2·2024
W
Rodrigues
UD·R3·2025
Matchup·MW·5R
↑UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
1/13←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Anthony Hernandez

“Fluffy”
15-3(1 NC)12 UFC6mo ago
6'0"ht75"reachOrthodox32 yrs
VS·MW·5R
Blue Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

“Robocop”
19-613 UFC5mo ago
6'3"+3"ht75"reachOrthodox34 yrs
CQ
Edges
Elevated Finish RiskHernandez · KO Vulnerability
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingHernandezDominant
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.RodriguesDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Hernandez+1.47
Rodrigues+0.75
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Hernandez
Hernandez1.47
Rodrigues0.61
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Hernandez70%
Rodrigues71%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Hernandez
62Average
Rodrigues
65Average
Stats
Hernandez
Rodrigues
Striking
4.57SS Landed / min5.53
60%Str Acc51%
3.10SS Absorbed / min4.78
51%Str Def50%
0.00KD / fight0.61
Grappling
5.88TD / min1.90
68%TD Def75%
1.60Sub Att · /15m0.40
80%Sub Def—
Finish History
Hernandez
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×5
Finish Rate (Wins)
78%
7/9
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
3/3
Rodrigues
KO/TKO ×7
Finish Rate (Wins)
70%
7/10
Stopped Rate (Losses)
67%
2/3
Hernandez17% distance
Finish 83%Decision 17%
Rodrigues31% distance
Finish 69%Decision 31%
Hernandez 12 UFC fights·Rodrigues 13 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Hernandez
11.4min
Rodrigues
8.9min
Combined Distance Rate
24%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
HernandezWinRodrigues
22%
KO
70%
56%
Sub
0%
22%
Dec
30%
9 wins2 KO5 Sub2 Dec
3 Dec7 KO10 wins
HernandezLossRodrigues
67%
KO
67%
33%
Sub
0%
0%
Dec
33%
3 losses2 KO1 Sub
1 Dec2 KO3 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Hernandez
to knock out
Rodrigues
41High
Rodrigues
to knock out
Hernandez
69Elite
Hernandez
to submit
Rodrigues
25Elevated
Rodrigues
to submit
Hernandez
26Elevated
Recent Form
Hernandez
Stat
Rodrigues
3.90
4.57 career
↓0.67
SLpMOutput
↓0.32
5.21
5.53 career
3.55
3.10 career
↑0.45
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.81
3.97
4.78 career
6.65
12.26 career
↓5.61
TD AttAtt/15m
↓2.58
2.84
5.42 career
0.33
1.60 career
↓1.27
SubAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Hernandez—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·12 fights
L
Sean StricklandEliteTITLEMW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 2:23 · Feb '26
55 SS (45%)·110 abs·0/1 td·32s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Roman DolidzeVeteranTITLEMW Bout
SUB · R4 · 2:45 · Aug '25
91 SS (60%)·36 abs·9/11 td·468s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Brendan AllenVeteranMW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Feb '25
30 SS (71%)·14 abs·4/8 td·622s ctrl
W
Michel PereiraVeteranTITLEMW Bout
KO/TKO · R5 · 2:22 · Oct '24
152 SS (72%)·24 abs·10/29 td·942s ctrl
W
Roman KopylovMW Bout
SUB · R2 · 3:23 · Feb '24
34 SS (44%)·35 abs·3/14 td·245s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Edmen ShahbazyanMW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 1:01 · May '23
63 SS (72%)·30 abs·6/15 td·1 td taken·431s ctrl·4 sub att
View full fight log →
Rodrigues—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·13 fights
W
Brunno FerreiraMW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:47 · Mar '26
2 SS (33%)·2 abs·1 kd
W
Roman KopylovMW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '25
90 SS (52%)·52 abs·0/4 td·2 td taken·24s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Jack HermanssonVeteranMW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:21 · Jun '25
18 SS (29%)·30 abs·1 kd
L
Jared CannonierVeteranTITLEMW Bout
KO/TKO · R4 · 0:21 · Feb '25
93 SS (42%)·98 abs·0/3 td·1 td taken·17s ctrl·2 kd·2 kd taken
W
Christian Leroy DuncanMW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jul '24
45 SS (57%)·29 abs·4/12 td·500s ctrl
W
Brad TavaresEliteMW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 0:55 · Feb '24
71 SS (58%)·37 abs·2/6 td·198s ctrl
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
JunYong ParkSame result
W
Hernandez
Sub·R2·2019
W
Rodrigues
KO/TKO·R2·2021
Roman KopylovSame result
W
Hernandez
Sub·R2·2024
W
Rodrigues
UD·R3·2025
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X