Matchup Analysis·Welterweight
Red Corner
Santiago Ponzinibbio
“Argentine Dagger”
31-920 UFCLast1.2yr ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
2× Title
2× 5R
Output Builds Late
High Wear
6'0"ht·73"reach·Orthodoxstance·39age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
3R
Blue Corner
14-3-16 UFCLast4mo ago
Balanced
High Variance
Early Chaos
6'3"+3"ht·78"+5"reach·Orthodoxstance·3010yrage
Signals3 signals
SUBMISSION
Patterson actively hunts submissions on the ground.
REACH CLIFF
Patterson has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Patterson's reach is a structural advantage.
AGE GAP
Ponzinibbio is 9 years older than Patterson.
CQ Core Edges
Ponzinibbio
+0.10
Patterson
-0.44
Ponzinibbio
0.40
Patterson
0.24
Ponzinibbio
53%
Patterson
Too few rounds
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Ponzinibbio
54
AveragePatterson
65
Average4 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.35KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Ponzinibbio4.78SLpM
+SLpM2.62Patterson
7.4
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
PonzinibbioOutput Builds Late+53% R1→R3
PattersonEarly Finisher
Finish History
Ponzinibbio
KO/TKO ×7
Finish rate (wins)
58%
7/12
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
4/8
Patterson
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
1/2
Edge & Exposure
Ponzinibbio
ExposureMileage Risk
Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.
Patterson
EdgeKO Threat
Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.
EdgeSub Threat
Elite submission attempt rate. Consistently hunts finishes on the mat.
ExposureTakedown Vulnerable
Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.
Opposition Quality
Ponzinibbio12–8UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
10–7
Record (17)
+0.1
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-15% step-up
2–3
Record (5)
-0.6
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Patterson4–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–1
Record (3)
+0.8
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
PonzinibbioWelterweightPatterson
45th
Striking Differential
32nd23rd
Grappling Threat
52nd51st
Round Win Rate
—66th
TD Defense
1st30th
Durability
39th44th
Finishing Rate
89th— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.
Recent Form
Ponzinibbio
Stat
Patterson
4.214.78 career
↓0.57
SLpMOutput
↓0.02
2.602.62 career
4.694.68 career
↑0.01
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.23
2.833.06 career
4.952.18 career
↑2.77
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.78
1.422.20 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓1.60
0.001.60 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Ponzinibbio45% distance
Finish 55%Decision 45%
Patterson17% distance
Finish 83%Decision 17%
Ponzinibbio 20 UFC fights·Patterson 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Ponzinibbio
11.3min
Patterson
4.5min
Combined Distance Rate
38%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
PonzinibbioTO KNOCK OUTPatterson
57
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins7
Total UFC wins12
Patterson's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses2
PattersonTO KNOCK OUTPonzinibbio
59
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins4
Ponzinibbio's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses4
Total UFC losses8
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
PonzinibbioTO SUBMITPatterson
5
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins12
Patterson's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses2
PattersonTO SUBMITPonzinibbio
20
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins4
Ponzinibbio's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses8
PonzinibbioWin MethodPatterson
58%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
50%
42%
Decision
0%
12 UFC wins · 7 KO · 5 Dec4 UFC wins · 2 KO · 2 Sub
Ponzinibbio
Loss Method
Patterson50%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
0%
50%
Decision
50%
8 UFC losses · 4 KO · 4 Dec2 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Dec
Ponzinibbio11 stoppages · 11 KO
R1
5
R2
1
R3
4
R4
1
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
LKODaniel RodriguezR3 · 1:12
WKOCarlston HarrisR3 · 3:13
LKOKevin HollandR3 · 3:16
WKOAlex MoronoR3 · 2:29
LKOLi JingliangR1 · 4:25
Patterson5 stoppages · 3 KO · 2 Sub
R1
5
R20
R30
R40
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
All stoppages
WKOTrey WatersR1 · 3:01
WKODanny BarlowR1 · 3:10
WSubKiefer CrosbieR1 · 2:50
WSubYohan LainesseR1 · 2:03
LKOYanal AshmouzR1 · 1:15
Historical Context
Ponzinibbio — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
49 SS (44%)·66 abs·1/8 td·44s ctrl·1 kd taken
76 SS (43%)·73 abs·38s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
41 SS (35%)·46 abs·2/5 td·149s ctrl
44 SS (42%)·66 abs·7s ctrl·1 kd taken
66 SS (43%)·38 abs·0/1 td·1 kd·1 kd taken
105 SS (48%)·110 abs·1/4 td·18s ctrl
Patterson — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·6 fights
12 SS (19%)·27 abs·0/2 td·167s ctrl
25 SS (52%)·18 abs
18 SS (53%)·15 abs·1 kd
9 SS (35%)·9 abs·1/1 td·56s ctrl·1 sub att
5 SS (50%)·1 abs·1/1 td·41s ctrl·1 sub att
2 SS (29%)·15 abs·1 td taken