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Matchup Analysis·Welterweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov9 / 12
←Satybaldiev vs JacobyBonfim vs Sola→
Red Corner

Santiago Ponzinibbio

“Argentine Dagger”
31-920 UFCLast1.2yr ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
2× Title
2× 5R
Output Builds Late
High Wear
6'0"ht·73"reach·Orthodoxstance·39age
VS
Welterweight170 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Sam Patterson

14-3-16 UFCLast4mo ago
Balanced
High Variance
Early Chaos
6'3"+3"ht·78"+5"reach·Orthodoxstance·3010yrage
CQ
EdgesElevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo data
GrapplingPonzinibbioSlight edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.PattersonSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
3 signals
SUBMISSION

Patterson actively hunts submissions on the ground.

REACH CLIFF

Patterson has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Patterson's reach is a structural advantage.

AGE GAP

Ponzinibbio is 9 years older than Patterson.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Ponzinibbio
+0.10
Patterson
-0.44
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Ponzinibbio
Ponzinibbio
0.40
Patterson
0.24
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No data
Ponzinibbio
53%
Patterson
Too few rounds
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Ponzinibbio
54
Average
Patterson
65
Average
4 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.35KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Ponzinibbio4.78SLpM
+
SLpM2.62Patterson
7.4
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Contextual
PonzinibbioOutput Builds Late+53% R1→R3
PattersonEarly Finisher
Finish History
Ponzinibbio
KO/TKO ×7
Finish rate (wins)
58%
7/12
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
4/8
Patterson
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
1/2
Edge & Exposure
Ponzinibbio
ExposureMileage Risk

Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.

Patterson
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeSub Threat

Elite submission attempt rate. Consistently hunts finishes on the mat.

ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Opposition Quality
Ponzinibbio12–8UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
10–7
Record (17)
+0.1
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-15% step-up
2–3
Record (5)
-0.6
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Patterson4–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–1
Record (3)
+0.8
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
PonzinibbioWelterweightPatterson
45th
Striking Differential
32nd
23rd
Grappling Threat
52nd
51st
Round Win Rate
—
66th
TD Defense
1st
30th
Durability
39th
44th
Finishing Rate
89th

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Ponzinibbio
Stat
Patterson
4.214.78 career
↓0.57
SLpMOutput
↓0.02
2.602.62 career
4.694.68 career
↑0.01
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.23
2.833.06 career
4.952.18 career
↑2.77
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.78
1.422.20 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓1.60
0.001.60 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Ponzinibbio45% distance
Finish 55%Decision 45%
Patterson17% distance
Finish 83%Decision 17%
Ponzinibbio 20 UFC fights·Patterson 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Ponzinibbio
11.3min
Patterson
4.5min
Combined Distance Rate
38%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
PonzinibbioTO KNOCK OUTPatterson
57
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins7
Total UFC wins12
Patterson's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses2
PattersonTO KNOCK OUTPonzinibbio
59
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins4
Ponzinibbio's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses4
Total UFC losses8
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
PonzinibbioTO SUBMITPatterson
5
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins12
Patterson's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses2
PattersonTO SUBMITPonzinibbio
20
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins2
Total UFC wins4
Ponzinibbio's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses8
PonzinibbioWin MethodPatterson
58%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
50%
42%
Decision
0%
12 UFC wins · 7 KO · 5 Dec4 UFC wins · 2 KO · 2 Sub
Ponzinibbio
Loss Method
Patterson
50%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
0%
50%
Decision
50%
8 UFC losses · 4 KO · 4 Dec2 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Dec
Ponzinibbio11 stoppages · 11 KO
R1
5
R2
1
R3
4
R4
1
R1R2R3R4
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
LKODaniel RodriguezR3 · 1:12
WKOCarlston HarrisR3 · 3:13
LKOKevin HollandR3 · 3:16
WKOAlex MoronoR3 · 2:29
LKOLi JingliangR1 · 4:25
Patterson5 stoppages · 3 KO · 2 Sub
R1
5
R2
0
R3
0
R4
0
R1R2R3R4
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
All stoppages
WKOTrey WatersR1 · 3:01
WKODanny BarlowR1 · 3:10
WSubKiefer CrosbieR1 · 2:50
WSubYohan LainesseR1 · 2:03
LKOYanal AshmouzR1 · 1:15
Historical Context
Ponzinibbio — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Daniel RodriguezVeteranWW
KO/TKO
R31:12
May '25
49 SS (44%)·66 abs·1/8 td·44s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Carlston HarrisWW
KO/TKO
R33:13
Jan '25
76 SS (43%)·73 abs·38s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
L
Muslim SalikhovWW
S-DEC
R3
Jul '24
41 SS (35%)·46 abs·2/5 td·149s ctrl
L
Kevin HollandVeteranWW
KO/TKO
R33:16
Apr '23
44 SS (42%)·66 abs·7s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Alex MoronoVeteranCatch Weight
KO/TKO
R32:29
Dec '22
66 SS (43%)·38 abs·0/1 td·1 kd·1 kd taken
L
Michel PereiraWW
S-DEC
R3
May '22
105 SS (48%)·110 abs·1/4 td·18s ctrl
View full fight log →
Patterson — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·6 fights
L
Michael PageWW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '26
12 SS (19%)·27 abs·0/2 td·167s ctrl
W
Trey WatersWW
KO/TKO
R13:01
Sep '25
25 SS (52%)·18 abs
W
Danny BarlowWW
KO/TKO
R13:10
Mar '25
18 SS (53%)·15 abs·1 kd
W
Kiefer CrosbieWW
SUB
R12:50
Jul '24
9 SS (35%)·9 abs·1/1 td·56s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Yohan LainesseWW
SUB
R12:03
Jan '24
5 SS (50%)·1 abs·1/1 td·41s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Yanal AshmouzLW
KO/TKO
R11:15
Mar '23
2 SS (29%)·15 abs·1 td taken
View full fight log →
Matchup·WW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
9/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Santiago Ponzinibbio

“Argentine Dagger”
31-920 UFC1.2yr ago
6'0"ht73"reachOrthodox39 yrs
VS·WW·3R
Blue Corner

Sam Patterson

14-3-16 UFC4mo ago
6'3"+3"ht78"+5"reachOrthodox30 yrs
CQ
Edges
Elevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo data
GrapplingPonzinibbioSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.PattersonSlight edge
Signals
2
REACH CLIFFPatterson has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Patterson's reach is a structural advantage.
AGE GAPPonzinibbio is 9 years older than Patterson.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Ponzinibbio+0.10
Patterson-0.44
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Ponzinibbio
Ponzinibbio0.40
Patterson0.24
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No data
Ponzinibbio53%
PattersonToo few rounds
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Ponzinibbio
54Average
Patterson
65Average
Stats
Ponzinibbio
Patterson
Striking
4.78SS Landed / min2.62
41%Str Acc37%
4.68SS Absorbed / min3.06
61%Str Def50%
0.55KD / fight0.17
Grappling
0.60TD / min0.82
71%TD Def33%
0.00Sub Att · /15m1.60
—Sub Def—
Finish History
Ponzinibbio
KO/TKO ×7
Finish Rate (Wins)
58%
7/12
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
4/8
Patterson
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
1/2
Ponzinibbio45% distance
Finish 55%Decision 45%
Patterson17% distance
Finish 83%Decision 17%
Ponzinibbio 20 UFC fights·Patterson 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Ponzinibbio
11.3min
Patterson
4.5min
Combined Distance Rate
38%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
PonzinibbioWinPatterson
58%
KO
50%
0%
Sub
50%
42%
Dec
0%
12 wins7 KO5 Dec
2 Sub2 KO4 wins
PonzinibbioLossPatterson
50%
KO
50%
0%
Sub
0%
50%
Dec
50%
8 losses4 KO4 Dec
1 Dec1 KO2 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Ponzinibbio
to knock out
Patterson
57Elite
Patterson
to knock out
Ponzinibbio
59Elite
Ponzinibbio
to submit
Patterson
5Minimal
Patterson
to submit
Ponzinibbio
20Low
Recent Form
Ponzinibbio
Stat
Patterson
4.21
4.78 career
↓0.57
SLpMOutput
↓0.02
2.60
2.62 career
4.69
4.68 career
↑0.01
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.23
2.83
3.06 career
4.95
2.18 career
↑2.77
TD AttAtt/15m
↓0.78
1.42
2.20 career
—
SubAtt/15m
↓1.60
0.00
1.60 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Ponzinibbio—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Daniel RodriguezVeteranWW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 1:12 · May '25
49 SS (44%)·66 abs·1/8 td·44s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Carlston HarrisWW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 3:13 · Jan '25
76 SS (43%)·73 abs·38s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
L
Muslim SalikhovWW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Jul '24
41 SS (35%)·46 abs·2/5 td·149s ctrl
L
Kevin HollandVeteranWW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 3:16 · Apr '23
44 SS (42%)·66 abs·7s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Alex MoronoVeteranCatch Weight Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 2:29 · Dec '22
66 SS (43%)·38 abs·0/1 td·1 kd·1 kd taken
L
Michel PereiraWW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · May '22
105 SS (48%)·110 abs·1/4 td·18s ctrl
View full fight log →
Patterson—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·6 fights
L
Michael PageWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '26
12 SS (19%)·27 abs·0/2 td·167s ctrl
W
Trey WatersWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:01 · Sep '25
25 SS (52%)·18 abs
W
Danny BarlowWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:10 · Mar '25
18 SS (53%)·15 abs·1 kd
W
Kiefer CrosbieWW Bout
SUB · R1 · 2:50 · Jul '24
9 SS (35%)·9 abs·1/1 td·56s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Yohan LainesseWW Bout
SUB · R1 · 2:03 · Jan '24
5 SS (50%)·1 abs·1/1 td·41s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Yanal AshmouzLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:15 · Mar '23
2 SS (29%)·15 abs·1 td taken
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X