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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
↑UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang11 / 13
←Walker vs ParkinVettori vs Naurdiev→
Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

32-1736 UFCLast1.9yr ago
Balanced
Layoff Risk
11× Title
14× 5R
High Wear
5'8"ht·70"reach·Southpawstance·41age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Alexander Hernandez

“El Gran Chango”
18-918 UFCLast5mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Early Chaos
High Wear
5'9"ht·72"+2"reach·Orthodoxstance·338yrage
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingDos AnjosSlight edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.Dos AnjosDominant
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
2 signals
RING RUST

Dos Anjos is returning after 23 months out.

AGE GAP

Dos Anjos is 8 years older than Hernandez.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Dos Anjos
+0.25
Hernandez
-0.22
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Dos Anjos
Dos Anjos
0.62
Hernandez
0.48
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Dos Anjos
57%
Hernandez
55%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Dos Anjos
79
Durable
Hernandez
62
Average
4 KO lossesKO losses3 KO losses
0.08KD / fight0.11
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Dos Anjos3.48SLpM
+
SLpM4.23Hernandez
7.7
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
Dos AnjosOutput Holds Steady-3% R1→R3
HernandezOutput Holds Steady-8% R1→R3
Finish History
Dos Anjos
KO/TKO ×4Sub ×5
Finish rate (wins)
43%
9/21
Stopped rate (losses)
33%
5/15
Hernandez
KO/TKO ×5
Finish rate (wins)
50%
5/10
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
4/8
Edge & Exposure
Dos Anjos
ExposureMileage Risk

Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.

Hernandez
ExposureWear Concern

High accumulated UFC fight volume. Susceptible to opponents who apply pressure in later rounds.

Opposition Quality
Dos Anjos21–15UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
16–14
Record (30)
+0.5
Str Diff/Min
44%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+33% step-up
9–8
Record (17)
+1.2
Str Diff/Min
56%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)

Not enough qualifying fights

Hernandez10–8UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–7
Record (13)
-0.1
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+4% step-up
5–2
Record (7)
+0.3
Str Diff/Min
60%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
1–1
Record (2)
-0.4
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
Dos AnjosLightweightHernandez
48th
Striking Differential
38th
71st
Grappling Threat
45th
60th
Round Win Rate
56th
25th
TD Defense
56th
62nd
Durability
39th
19th
Finishing Rate
42nd
Recent Form
Dos Anjos
Stat
Hernandez
2.553.48 career
↓0.93
SLpMOutput
↓0.85
3.384.23 career
3.543.23 career
↑0.31
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.90
3.554.45 career
2.535.47 career
⚠↓2.94
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓2.46
0.522.98 career
0.360.60 career
↓0.24
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Dos Anjos61% distance
Finish 39%Decision 61%
Hernandez50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Dos Anjos 36 UFC fights·Hernandez 18 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Dos Anjos
14.5min
Hernandez
10.4min
Combined Distance Rate
57%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
Dos AnjosTO KNOCK OUTHernandez
35
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins4
Total UFC wins21
Hernandez's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses8
HernandezTO KNOCK OUTDos Anjos
44
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins5
Total UFC wins10
Dos Anjos's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses4
Total UFC losses15
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
Dos AnjosTO SUBMITHernandez
43
High
Sub Wins
Submission wins5
Total UFC wins21
Hernandez's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses8
HernandezTO SUBMITDos Anjos
9
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins10
Dos Anjos's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses15
Dos AnjosWin MethodHernandez
19%
KO / TKO
50%
24%
Submission
0%
57%
Decision
50%
21 UFC wins · 4 KO · 5 Sub · 12 Dec10 UFC wins · 5 KO · 5 Dec
Dos Anjos
Loss Method
Hernandez
27%
KO / TKO
38%
7%
Submission
13%
67%
Decision
50%
15 UFC losses · 4 KO · 1 Sub · 10 Dec8 UFC losses · 3 KO · 1 Sub · 4 Dec
Dos Anjos14 stoppages · 8 KO · 6 Sub
R1
7
R2
3
R3
2
R4
1
R5
1
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOGeoff NealR1 · 1:30
WSubBryan BarberenaR2 · 3:20
LKORafael FizievR5 · 0:18
WSubKevin LeeR4 · 3:47
WSubNeil MagnyR1 · 3:43
Hernandez9 stoppages · 8 KO · 1 Sub
R1
4
R2
5
R3
0
R4
0
R5
0
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKODiego FerreiraR2 · 3:46
WKOChase HooperR1 · 4:58
LKOBilly QuarantilloR2 · 4:30
LSubRenato MoicanoR2 · 1:23
WKOMike BreedenR1 · 1:20
Historical Context
Dos Anjos — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Geoff NealVeteranWW
KO/TKO
R11:30
Oct '24
4 SS (31%)·18 abs·1 td taken·1 kd taken
L
Mateusz GamrotLW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '24
36 SS (46%)·57 abs·11 td taken·11s ctrl·1 kd
L
Vicente LuqueVeteranTITLEWW
U-DEC
R5
Aug '23
66 SS (49%)·72 abs·2/7 td·8 td taken·234s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Bryan BarberenaVeteranWW
SUB
R23:20
Dec '22
20 SS (80%)·14 abs·4/6 td·396s ctrl·2 sub att
L
Rafael FizievTITLELW
KO/TKO
R50:18
Jul '22
54 SS (49%)·64 abs·2/16 td·373s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Renato MoicanoVeteranTITLECatch Weight
U-DEC
R5
Mar '22
149 SS (52%)·88 abs·5/15 td·802s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Hernandez — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Rafa GarciaLW
U-DEC
R3
Apr '26
50 SS (34%)·59 abs·0/1 td·4 td taken
W
Diego FerreiraVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R23:46
Sep '25
30 SS (40%)·23 abs·12s ctrl·1 kd
W
Chase HooperVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R14:58
Aug '25
17 SS (45%)·20 abs·1 kd
W
Kurt HolobaughLW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '25
59 SS (40%)·71 abs·4/5 td·399s ctrl
W
Austin HubbardLW
S-DEC
R3
Oct '24
79 SS (39%)·63 abs·0/2 td·40s ctrl
L
Damon JacksonFW
S-DEC
R3
Apr '24
32 SS (37%)·42 abs·3 td taken·142s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Donald CerroneSplit result
W
Dos Anjos
KO/TKO·R1·2015
L
Hernandez
KO/TKO·R2·2019
Renato MoicanoSplit result
W
Dos Anjos
UD·R5·2022
L
Hernandez
Sub·R2·2022
Matchup·LW·3R
↑UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
11/13←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

32-1736 UFC1.9yr ago
5'8"ht70"reachSouthpaw41 yrs
VS·LW·3R
Blue Corner

Alexander Hernandez

“El Gran Chango”
18-918 UFC5mo ago
5'9"ht72"+2"reachOrthodox33 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingAnjosSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.AnjosDominant
Signals
2
RING RUSTAnjos is returning after 23 months out.
AGE GAPAnjos is 8 years older than Hernandez.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Anjos+0.25
Hernandez-0.22
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Anjos
Anjos0.62
Hernandez0.48
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Anjos57%
Hernandez55%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Anjos
79Durable
Hernandez
62Average
Stats
Anjos
Hernandez
Striking
3.48SS Landed / min4.23
47%Str Acc40%
3.23SS Absorbed / min4.45
60%Str Def59%
0.19KD / fight0.33
Grappling
1.95TD / min1.05
54%TD Def68%
0.60Sub Att · /15m0.10
50%Sub Def75%
Finish History
Anjos
KO/TKO ×4Sub ×5
Finish Rate (Wins)
43%
9/21
Stopped Rate (Losses)
33%
5/15
Hernandez
KO/TKO ×5
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
5/10
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
4/8
Anjos61% distance
Finish 39%Decision 61%
Hernandez50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Anjos 36 UFC fights·Hernandez 18 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Anjos
14.5min
Hernandez
10.4min
Combined Distance Rate
57%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
AnjosWinHernandez
19%
KO
50%
24%
Sub
0%
57%
Dec
50%
21 wins4 KO5 Sub12 Dec
5 Dec5 KO10 wins
AnjosLossHernandez
27%
KO
38%
7%
Sub
13%
67%
Dec
50%
15 losses4 KO1 Sub10 Dec
4 Dec1 Sub3 KO8 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Anjos
to knock out
Hernandez
35Elevated
Hernandez
to knock out
Anjos
44High
Anjos
to submit
Hernandez
43High
Hernandez
to submit
Anjos
9Minimal
Recent Form
Anjos
Stat
Hernandez
2.55
3.48 career
↓0.93
SLpMOutput
↓0.85
3.38
4.23 career
3.54
3.23 career
↑0.31
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.90
3.55
4.45 career
2.53
5.47 career
↓2.94
TD AttAtt/15m
↓2.46
0.52
2.98 career
0.36
0.60 career
↓0.24
SubAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Anjos—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Geoff NealVeteranWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:30 · Oct '24
4 SS (31%)·18 abs·1 td taken·1 kd taken
L
Mateusz GamrotLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '24
36 SS (46%)·57 abs·11 td taken·11s ctrl·1 kd
L
Vicente LuqueVeteranTITLEWW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Aug '23
66 SS (49%)·72 abs·2/7 td·8 td taken·234s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Bryan BarberenaVeteranWW Bout
SUB · R2 · 3:20 · Dec '22
20 SS (80%)·14 abs·4/6 td·396s ctrl·2 sub att
L
Rafael FizievTITLELW Bout
KO/TKO · R5 · 0:18 · Jul '22
54 SS (49%)·64 abs·2/16 td·373s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Renato MoicanoVeteranTITLECatch Weight Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Mar '22
149 SS (52%)·88 abs·5/15 td·802s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Hernandez—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Rafa GarciaLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Apr '26
50 SS (34%)·59 abs·0/1 td·4 td taken
W
Diego FerreiraVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 3:46 · Sep '25
30 SS (40%)·23 abs·12s ctrl·1 kd
W
Chase HooperVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:58 · Aug '25
17 SS (45%)·20 abs·1 kd
W
Kurt HolobaughLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25
59 SS (40%)·71 abs·4/5 td·399s ctrl
W
Austin HubbardLW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Oct '24
79 SS (39%)·63 abs·0/2 td·40s ctrl
L
Damon JacksonFW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Apr '24
32 SS (37%)·42 abs·3 td taken·142s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Donald CerroneSplit result
W
Anjos
KO/TKO·R1·2015
L
Hernandez
KO/TKO·R2·2019
Renato MoicanoSplit result
W
Anjos
UD·R5·2022
L
Hernandez
Sub·R2·2022
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X