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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez10 / 12
←Buzukja vs GradMilosevic vs Cowan→
Red Corner

Mateusz Rebecki

20-58 UFCLast3mo ago
Wrestler
Declining
Output Drops Late
Moderate Wear
5'7"ht·66"reach·Southpawstance·33age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Kyle Prepolec

“Killshot”
18-104 UFCLast9mo ago
Balanced
Declining
5'10"+3"ht·70"+4"reach·Southpawstance·36age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingRebeckiDominant
DecisionRebeckiDominant
GrapplingRebeckiDominant
KO Adv.RebeckiClear edge
Sub Adv.RebeckiClear edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
1 signal
CARDIO

Rebecki's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Rebecki
Rebecki
+0.43
Prepolec
-2.44
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Rebecki
Rebecki
1.68
Prepolec
0.00
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Rebecki
Rebecki
62%
Prepolec
9%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Rebecki
72
Durable
Prepolec
55
Average
1 KO lossKO losses1 KO loss
0.00KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Rebecki4.79SLpM
+
SLpM3.25Prepolec
8.0
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
RebeckiOutput Drops Late
PrepolecOutput Drops Late-48% R1→R3
Finish History
Rebecki
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
2/4
Prepolec
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
—
—
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
2/4
Edge & Exposure
Rebecki
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

ExposureFades Hard

Output drops significantly in later rounds. Extended fights are a structural disadvantage.

Prepolec

No dominant edges or exposures identified from UFC record.

Opposition Quality
Rebecki4–4UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
3–4
Record (7)
+0.5
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
Prepolec0–4UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
0–3
Record (3)
-3.6
Str Diff/Min
—
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
RebeckiLightweightPrepolec
58th
Striking Differential
5th
91st
Grappling Threat
5th
75th
Round Win Rate
2nd
24th
TD Defense
14th
54th
Durability
30th
41st
Finishing Rate
—

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Rebecki
Stat
Prepolec
4.904.79 career
↑0.11
SLpMOutput
↓0.09
3.163.25 career
4.684.36 career
↑0.32
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.14
5.555.69 career
7.725.83 career
↑1.89
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑0.07
2.222.15 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Rebecki50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Prepolec50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Rebecki 8 UFC fights·Prepolec 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Rebecki
12.5min
Prepolec
12.2min
Combined Distance Rate
50%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
RebeckiTO KNOCK OUTPrepolec
41
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins1
Total UFC wins4
Prepolec's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses4
PrepolecTO KNOCK OUTRebecki
24
Low
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins0
Total UFC wins0
Rebecki's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses4
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
RebeckiTO SUBMITPrepolec
46
High
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins4
Prepolec's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses4
PrepolecTO SUBMITRebecki
21
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins0
Rebecki's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses4
RebeckiWin MethodPrepolec
25%
KO / TKO
—
25%
Submission
—
50%
Decision
—
4 UFC wins · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 2 DecNo UFC wins
Rebecki
Loss Method
Prepolec
25%
KO / TKO
25%
25%
Submission
25%
50%
Decision
50%
4 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec4 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec
Rebecki4 stoppages · 2 KO · 2 Sub
R1
1
R2
1
R3
2
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubGrant DawsonR3 · 4:42
LKODiego FerreiraR3 · 4:51
WSubRoosevelt RobertsR1 · 3:08
WKOLoik RadzhabovR2 · 2:36
Prepolec2 stoppages · 1 KO · 1 Sub
R1
0
R2
1
R3
1
R1R2R3
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKODrew DoberR3 · 1:16
LSubBenoit Saint DenisR2 · 2:35
Historical Context
Rebecki — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·8 fights
L
Grant DawsonVeteranLW
SUB
R34:42
May '26
33 SS (52%)·35 abs·1/5 td·1 td taken·142s ctrl·1 kd
L
Ludovit KleinLW
M-DEC
R3
Oct '25
72 SS (45%)·82 abs·3/12 td·303s ctrl
L
Chris DuncanLW
U-DEC
R3
Aug '25
114 SS (43%)·92 abs·2/6 td·83s ctrl
W
Myktybek OrolbaiCatch Weight
S-DEC
R3
Oct '24
71 SS (49%)·61 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·144s ctrl·1 kd
L
Diego FerreiraVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R34:51
May '24
52 SS (38%)·123 abs·4/5 td·3 td taken·146s ctrl·1 kd
W
Roosevelt RobertsLW
SUB
R13:08
Nov '23
10 SS (63%)·2 abs·2/2 td·134s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Prepolec — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Drew DoberVeteranLW
KO/TKO
R31:16
Oct '25
51 SS (31%)·83 abs·0/3 td
L
Benoit Saint DenisLW
SUB
R22:35
May '25
12 SS (44%)·54 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·7s ctrl
L
Austin HubbardLW
U-DEC
R3
Sep '19
44 SS (36%)·51 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·47s ctrl
L
Nordine TalebWW
U-DEC
R3
May '19
52 SS (34%)·90 abs·0/2 td
View full fight log →
Matchup·LW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
10/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Mateusz Rebecki

20-58 UFC3mo ago
5'7"ht66"reachSouthpaw33 yrs
VS·LW·3R
Blue Corner

Kyle Prepolec

“Killshot”
18-104 UFC9mo ago
5'10"+3"ht70"+4"reachSouthpaw36 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingRebeckiDominant
DecisionRebeckiDominant
GrapplingRebeckiDominant
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.RebeckiClear edge
Sub Adv.RebeckiClear edge
Signals
1
CARDIORebecki's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Rebecki
Rebecki+0.43
Prepolec-2.44
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Rebecki
Rebecki1.68
Prepolec0.00
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Rebecki
Rebecki62%
Prepolec9%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Rebecki
72Durable
Prepolec
55Average
Stats
Rebecki
Prepolec
Striking
4.79SS Landed / min3.25
46%Str Acc34%
4.36SS Absorbed / min5.69
54%Str Def48%
0.63KD / fight0.00
Grappling
3.05TD / min0.00
53%TD Def45%
0.40Sub Att · /15m0.00
75%Sub Def50%
Finish History
Rebecki
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
2/4
Prepolec
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
—
—
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
2/4
Rebecki50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Prepolec50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Rebecki 8 UFC fights·Prepolec 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Rebecki
12.5min
Prepolec
12.2min
Combined Distance Rate
50%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
RebeckiWinPrepolec
25%
KO
—
25%
Sub
—
50%
Dec
—
4 wins1 KO1 Sub2 Dec
—
RebeckiLossPrepolec
25%
KO
25%
25%
Sub
25%
50%
Dec
50%
4 losses1 KO1 Sub2 Dec
2 Dec1 Sub1 KO4 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Rebecki
to knock out
Prepolec
41High
Prepolec
to knock out
Rebecki
24Low
Rebecki
to submit
Prepolec
46High
Prepolec
to submit
Rebecki
21Low
Recent Form
Rebecki
Stat
Prepolec
4.90
4.79 career
↑0.11
SLpMOutput
↓0.09
3.16
3.25 career
4.68
4.36 career
↑0.32
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.14
5.55
5.69 career
7.72
5.83 career
↑1.89
TD AttAtt/15m
↑0.07
2.22
2.15 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Rebecki—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·8 fights
L
Grant DawsonVeteranLW Bout
SUB · R3 · 4:42 · May '26
33 SS (52%)·35 abs·1/5 td·1 td taken·142s ctrl·1 kd
L
Ludovit KleinLW Bout
M-DEC · R3 · Oct '25
72 SS (45%)·82 abs·3/12 td·303s ctrl
L
Chris DuncanLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Aug '25
114 SS (43%)·92 abs·2/6 td·83s ctrl
W
Myktybek OrolbaiCatch Weight Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Oct '24
71 SS (49%)·61 abs·3/4 td·2 td taken·144s ctrl·1 kd
L
Diego FerreiraVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 4:51 · May '24
52 SS (38%)·123 abs·4/5 td·3 td taken·146s ctrl·1 kd
W
Roosevelt RobertsLW Bout
SUB · R1 · 3:08 · Nov '23
10 SS (63%)·2 abs·2/2 td·134s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Prepolec—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Drew DoberVeteranLW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 1:16 · Oct '25
51 SS (31%)·83 abs·0/3 td
L
Benoit Saint DenisLW Bout
SUB · R2 · 2:35 · May '25
12 SS (44%)·54 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·7s ctrl
L
Austin HubbardLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Sep '19
44 SS (36%)·51 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·47s ctrl
L
Nordine TalebWW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '19
52 SS (34%)·90 abs·0/2 td
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X