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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight Bout
Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

“El Matador”
17-09 UFCLast10mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Hot Streak
4× Title
4× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
5'7"ht·69"reach·Orthodoxstance·298yrage
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
Blue Corner

Justin Gaethje

“The Highlight”
27-515 UFCLast3mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Aging Threat
8× Title
11× 5R
High Wear
5'11"+4"ht·70"reach·Orthodoxstance·37age
CQ
OutcomeElevated Finish Risk
Gaethje · KO Vulnerability
StrikingTopuriaClear edge
DecisionTopuriaClear edge
GrapplingTopuriaClear edge
KO Adv.TopuriaDominant
Sub Adv.TopuriaDominant
DurabilityTopuria
Signals
1 signal
AGE GAP

Gaethje is 8 years older than Topuria.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Topuria
Topuria
+0.98
Gaethje
-0.57
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Topuria
Topuria
0.51
Gaethje
0.02
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Topuria
Topuria
75%
Gaethje
48%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Topuria
Topuria
94
Ironclad
Gaethje
54
Average
0 KO lossesKO losses3 KO losses
0.11KD / fight0.20
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Extreme
Topuria4.81SLpM
+
SLpM6.48Gaethje
11.3
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Topuria
TopuriaOutput Builds Late+25% R1→R3
GaethjeOutput Holds Steady+9% R1→R3
Finish History
Topuria
KO/TKO ×6Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
78%
7/9
Stopped rate (losses)
—
—
Gaethje
KO/TKO ×6
Finish rate (wins)
60%
6/10
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
5/5
Edge & Exposure
Topuria
EdgeUnbeaten

9 UFC fights without a loss. An unblemished record at this sample size is a meaningful form signal.

EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

Gaethje

No dominant edges or exposures identified from UFC record.

Opposition Quality
Topuria9–0UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
7–0
Record (7)
+1.1
Str Diff/Min
71%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+79% step-up
4–0
Record (4)
+1.4
Str Diff/Min
75%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
2–0
Record (2)
+2.3
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Gaethje10–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
9–5
Record (14)
-0.1
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-4% step-up
6–4
Record (10)
+0.1
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
3–2
Record (5)
+0.4
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
TopuriaLightweightGaethje
74th
Striking Differential
25th
85th
Grappling Threat
28th
91st
Round Win Rate
40th
97th
TD Defense
68th
91st
Durability
28th
77th
Finishing Rate
59th
Recent Form
Topuria
Stat
Gaethje
5.814.81 career
↑1.00
SLpMOutput
⚠↓1.57
4.916.48 career
5.993.83 career
⚠↑2.16
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.82
6.237.05 career
1.333.20 career
⚠↓1.87
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
0.001.10 career
⚠↓1.10
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Topuria22% distance
Finish 78%Decision 22%
Gaethje27% distance
Finish 73%Decision 27%
Topuria 9 UFC fights·Gaethje 15 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Topuria
9.4min
Gaethje
12.1min
Combined Distance Rate
25%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger
Topuria→Gaethje
69
Elite
Striking Threat
KDs per 15 min1.25
KO finish rate67%
Gaethje's Chin
KDs absorbed/fight0.20
KO loss rate60%
Gaethje→Topuria
36
Elevated
Striking Threat
KDs per 15 min0.74
KO finish rate60%
Topuria's Chin
KDs absorbed/fight0.11
KO loss rate0%
Sub Danger
Topuria→Gaethje
55
Elite
Sub Threat
Sub att / 15 min1.10
Sub win rate11%
Gaethje's Vulnerability
Sub loss rate40%
Gaethje→Topuria
4
Minimal
Sub Threat*
Sub att / 15 min0.00
Sub win rate0%
Topuria's Vulnerability
Sub loss rate0%

No submission wins on record. Threat estimated from attempt volume.

TopuriaWin MethodGaethje
67%
KO / TKO
60%
11%
Submission
0%
22%
Decision
40%
9 UFC wins · 6 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec10 UFC wins · 6 KO · 4 Dec
Topuria
Loss Method
Gaethje
—
KO / TKO
60%
—
Submission
40%
—
Decision
0%
No UFC losses5 UFC losses · 3 KO · 2 Sub
Topuria7 stoppages · 6 KO · 1 Sub
R1
3
R2
3
R3
1
R4
0
R5
0
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
Sub Win
All stoppages
WKOCharles OliveiraR1 · 2:27
WKOMax HollowayR3 · 1:34
WKOAlexander VolkanovskiR2 · 3:32
WSubBryce MitchellR2 · 3:10
WKOJai HerbertR2 · 1:07
Gaethje11 stoppages · 9 KO · 2 Sub
R1
4
R2
3
R3
1
R4
1
R5
2
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOMax HollowayR5 · 4:59
WKODustin PoirierR2 · 1:00
LSubCharles OliveiraR1 · 3:22
LSubKhabib NurmagomedovR2 · 1:34
WKOTony FergusonR5 · 3:39
Historical Context
Topuria — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Charles OliveiraEliteTITLE
KO/TKO
R12:27
Jun '25
21 SS (72%)·9 abs·61s ctrl·1 kd
W
Max HollowayEliteTITLE
KO/TKO
R31:34
Oct '24
75 SS (52%)·79 abs·2/2 td·45s ctrl·1 kd
W
Alexander VolkanovskiVeteranTITLE
KO/TKO
R23:32
Feb '24
35 SS (45%)·47 abs·1 kd
W
Josh EmmettVeteranTITLE
U-DEC
R5
Jun '23
152 SS (44%)·87 abs·3/3 td·215s ctrl·1 kd
W
Bryce Mitchell
SUB
R23:10
Dec '22
40 SS (52%)·36 abs·1 td taken·78s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Jai Herbert
KO/TKO
R21:07
Mar '22
20 SS (49%)·22 abs·1/4 td·161s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Gaethje — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Paddy PimblettTITLE
U-DEC
R5
Jan '26
144 SS (57%)·156 abs·3/3 td·355s ctrl·2 kd
W
Rafael Fiziev
U-DEC
R3
Mar '25
72 SS (54%)·68 abs·0/3 td·2 td taken·92s ctrl·1 kd
L
Max HollowayElite
KO/TKO
R54:59
Apr '24
103 SS (52%)·181 abs·1 kd taken
W
Dustin PoirierElite
KO/TKO
R21:00
Jul '23
41 SS (62%)·27 abs·1 kd
W
Rafael Fiziev
M-DEC
R3
Mar '23
103 SS (60%)·97 abs·1/3 td·5s ctrl
L
Charles OliveiraEliteTITLE
SUB
R13:22
May '22
21 SS (64%)·30 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Max HollowaySplit result
W
Topuria
KO/TKO·R3·2024
L
Gaethje
KO/TKO·R5·2024
Charles OliveiraSplit result
W
Topuria
KO/TKO·R1·2025
L
Gaethje
Sub·R1·2022
Matchup·LW
Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

“El Matador”
17-09 UFC10mo ago
5'7"ht69"reachOrthodox29 yrs
VS·LW
Blue Corner

Justin Gaethje

“The Highlight”
27-515 UFC3mo ago
5'11"+4"ht70"reachOrthodox37 yrs
CQ
Elevated Finish RiskGaethje · KO Vulnerability
StrikingTopuriaClear edge
DecisionTopuriaClear edge
GrapplingTopuriaClear edge
DurabilityTopuria
KO Adv.TopuriaDominant
Sub Adv.TopuriaDominant
Signals
1
AGE GAPGaethje is 8 years older than Topuria.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Topuria
Topuria+0.98
Gaethje-0.57
CQGrappling
Topuria
Topuria0.51
Gaethje0.02
CQDecision
Topuria
Topuria75%
Gaethje48%
CQDurability
Topuria
Topuria94Ironclad
Gaethje54Average
CQCardio
Topuria
TopuriaOutput Builds Late
GaethjeOutput Holds Steady
CQPace Index
Extreme
Topuria4.81SLpM
+
Gaethje6.48SLpM
11.3
LowModHighExtreme
Finish History
Topuria
KO/TKO ×6Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
78%
7/9
Stopped Rate (Losses)
—
—
Gaethje
KO/TKO ×6
Finish Rate (Wins)
60%
6/10
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
5/5
Opposition Quality
Topuria9–0UFC
Gaethje10–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record
7–0n=7
+1.1strike diff/min
9–5n=14
-0.1strike diff/min
vs. Veteran (≥8W)
4–0n=4
+1.4strike diff/min
6–4n=10
+0.1strike diff/min
vs. Elite (≥15W)
2–0n=2
+2.3strike diff/min
3–2n=5
+0.4strike diff/min
Division Percentile Ranks
LW
TopuriaGaethje
74thStriking Diff25th
85thGrappling28th
91stRound Win Rate40th
97thTD Defense68th
91stDurability28th
77thFinish Rate59th
Recent Form
Topuria
Stat
Gaethje
5.81
4.81 career
↑1.00
SLpMOutput
↓1.57
4.91
6.48 career
5.99
3.83 career
↑2.16
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.82
6.23
7.05 career
1.33
3.20 career
↓1.87
TD AttAtt/15m
—
0.00
1.10 career
↓1.10
SubAtt/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Outcome SignalElevated Finish Risk
Topuria22% distance
Finish 78%Decision 22%
Gaethje27% distance
Finish 73%Decision 27%
Topuria 9 UFC fights·Gaethje 15 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Topuria
9.4min
Gaethje
12.1min
Combined Distance Rate
25%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger
Topuria→Gaethje
69Elite
Threat
KD / 15 min1.25
KO rate67%
Gaethje's Chin
KDs abs/fight0.20
KO loss rate60%
Gaethje→Topuria
36Elevated
Threat
KD / 15 min0.74
KO rate60%
Topuria's Chin
KDs abs/fight0.11
KO loss rate0%
Sub Danger
Topuria→Gaethje
55Elite
Threat
Sub att / 15m1.10
Sub win rate11%
Gaethje's Vuln
Sub loss rate40%
Gaethje→Topuria
4Minimal
Threat
Sub att / 15m0.00
Sub win rate0%
Topuria's Vuln
Sub loss rate0%
TopuriaWinGaethje
67%
KO
60%
11%
Sub
0%
22%
Dec
40%
9 wins6 KO1 Sub2 Dec
4 Dec6 KO10 wins
TopuriaLossGaethje
—
KO
60%
—
Sub
40%
—
Dec
0%
—
2 Sub3 KO5 losses
Round Distribution
Topuria
7 stoppages6 KO1 Sub
R1
3
R2
3
R3
1
All Stoppages
WKOOliveiraR1 · 2:27
WKOHollowayR3 · 1:34
WKOVolkanovskiR2 · 3:32
WSUBMitchellR2 · 3:10
Gaethje
11 stoppages9 KO2 Sub
R1
4
R2
3
R3
1
R4
1
R5
2
All Stoppages
LKOHollowayR5 · 4:59
WKOPoirierR2 · 1:00
LSUBOliveiraR1 · 3:22
LSUBNurmagomedovR2 · 1:34
Historical Context
Topuria—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Charles OliveiraEliteTITLE
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:27 · Jun '25
21 SS (72%)·9 abs·61s ctrl·1 kd
W
Max HollowayEliteTITLE
KO/TKO · R3 · 1:34 · Oct '24
75 SS (52%)·79 abs·2/2 td·45s ctrl·1 kd
W
Alexander VolkanovskiVeteranTITLE
KO/TKO · R2 · 3:32 · Feb '24
35 SS (45%)·47 abs·1 kd
W
Josh EmmettVeteranTITLE
U-DEC · R5 · Jun '23
152 SS (44%)·87 abs·3/3 td·215s ctrl·1 kd
W
Bryce Mitchell
SUB · R2 · 3:10 · Dec '22
40 SS (52%)·36 abs·1 td taken·78s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Jai Herbert
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:07 · Mar '22
20 SS (49%)·22 abs·1/4 td·161s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Gaethje—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Paddy PimblettTITLE
U-DEC · R5 · Jan '26
144 SS (57%)·156 abs·3/3 td·355s ctrl·2 kd
W
Rafael Fiziev
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '25
72 SS (54%)·68 abs·0/3 td·2 td taken·92s ctrl·1 kd
L
Max HollowayElite
KO/TKO · R5 · 4:59 · Apr '24
103 SS (52%)·181 abs·1 kd taken
W
Dustin PoirierElite
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:00 · Jul '23
41 SS (62%)·27 abs·1 kd
W
Rafael Fiziev
M-DEC · R3 · Mar '23
103 SS (60%)·97 abs·1/3 td·5s ctrl
L
Charles OliveiraEliteTITLE
SUB · R1 · 3:22 · May '22
21 SS (64%)·30 abs·13s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Max HollowaySplit result
W
Topuria
KO/TKO·R3·2024
L
Gaethje
KO/TKO·R5·2024
Charles OliveiraSplit result
W
Topuria
KO/TKO·R1·2025
L
Gaethje
Sub·R1·2022
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X