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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
↑UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev9 / 14
←Magomedov vs RowstonThicknesse vs Chopurov→
Red Corner

Grant Dawson

“KGD”
24-3-115 UFCLast6mo ago
Wrestler
Title Fight
Moderate Wear
5'10"ht·72"reach·Switchstance·32age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Nurullo Aliev

“Tajik Eagle”
12-04 UFCLast3mo ago
Wrestler
Hot Streak
5'10"ht·72"reach·Orthodoxstance·257yrage
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingAlievClear edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.DawsonClear edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
2 signals
SUBMISSION

Dawson actively hunts submissions on the ground.

AGE GAP

Dawson is 7 years older than Aliev.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Dawson
+1.00
Aliev
+0.70
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Aliev
Dawson
0.72
Aliev
1.18
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Dawson
84%
Aliev
92%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Dawson
70
Average
Aliev
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Dawson3.14SLpM
+
SLpM2.29Aliev
5.4
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
DawsonOutput Builds Late+26% R1→R3
AlievOutput Builds Late+47% R1→R3
Finish History
Dawson
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×5
Finish rate (wins)
58%
7/12
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
2/2
Aliev
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
0%
0/4
Stopped rate (losses)
—
—
Edge & Exposure
Dawson
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Aliev
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Opposition Quality
Dawson12–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
10–2
Record (13)
+0.0
Str Diff/Min
60%
Finish (W)
Aliev4–0UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks
DawsonLightweightAliev
76th
Striking Differential
70th
89th
Grappling Threat
94th
96th
Round Win Rate
99th
50th
TD Defense
83rd
51st
Durability
82nd
57th
Finishing Rate
—

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Dawson
Stat
Aliev
3.083.14 career
↓0.06
SLpMOutput
↓0.09
2.202.29 career
2.582.14 career
↑0.44
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.50
2.091.59 career
7.479.28 career
⚠↓1.81
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑0.67
6.676.00 career
1.871.40 career
↑0.47
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↑0.17
0.670.50 career
Stat Breakdown
Grappling
DawsonAliev5 fights
Div avg
TD Landed / 15 Min
3.58
3.48
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY
9.28
6.00
TD Accuracy
39%
51%
TD Defense
66%
80%
Sub Attempts / 15 Min
1.40
0.50
Ctrl Time / Fight
414s
471s
Threat Matrix
DawsonAliev
0.72Adj. TD Threat
1.18
1.40Sub Att / 15min0.50
Takedowns
Dawson
2.7avg landed / fight
Aliev
3.5avg landed / fight
UFC Grappling Totals
TD offense
41/ 105
landed / att
TD defense
7/ 10
stopped / opp att
TD offense
14/ 24
landed / att
TD defense
8/ 10
stopped / opp att
Sub offense
5/ 14
wins / att
Sub defense
5/ 5
escaped / threatened
Sub offense
0/ 2
wins / att
Sub defense
5/ 5
escaped / threatened
Dawson
Aliev
Historical Context
Dawson — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·15 fights
W
Mateusz RebeckiLW
SUB
R34:42
May '26
35 SS (37%)·33 abs·1/3 td·1 td taken·428s ctrl·1 kd taken·4 sub att
L
Manuel TorresLW
KO/TKO
R12:25
Dec '25
8 SS (38%)·9 abs·0/2 td·1 kd taken
W
Diego FerreiraVeteranLW
U-DEC
R3
Jan '25
56 SS (57%)·41 abs·6/11 td·650s ctrl
W
Rafa GarciaLW
KO/TKO
R21:42
Oct '24
44 SS (49%)·5 abs·2/4 td·309s ctrl
W
Joe SoleckiLW
U-DEC
R3
Jun '24
46 SS (66%)·12 abs·3/3 td·826s ctrl
L
King GreenVeteranTITLELW
KO/TKO
R10:33
Oct '23
0 SS (0%)·7 abs·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Aliev — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·4 fights
W
Mike DavisLW
U-DEC
R3
Jul '26
13 SS (38%)·22 abs·8/13 td·745s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Shem RockLW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '25
51 SS (44%)·44 abs·1/5 td·1 td taken·224s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Joe SoleckiLW
U-DEC
R3
Jan '25
35 SS (40%)·28 abs·2/2 td·1 td taken·493s ctrl
W
Rafael AlvesLW
M-DEC
R3
Feb '23
19 SS (42%)·6 abs·3/4 td·651s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WJosh Wick
DWCSKO/TKOR1Oct 2022
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Joe SoleckiSame result
W
Dawson
UD·R3·2024
W
Aliev
UD·R3·2025
Matchup·LW·3R
↑UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
9/14←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Grant Dawson

“KGD”
24-3-115 UFC6mo ago
5'10"ht72"reachSwitch32 yrs
VS·LW·3R
Blue Corner

Nurullo Aliev

“Tajik Eagle”
12-04 UFC3mo ago
5'10"ht72"reachOrthodox25 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingAlievClear edge
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.DawsonClear edge
Signals
1
AGE GAPDawson is 7 years older than Aliev.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Dawson+1.00
Aliev+0.70
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Aliev
Dawson0.72
Aliev1.18
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Dawson84%
Aliev92%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Dawson
70Average
Aliev
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Stats
Dawson
Aliev
Striking
3.14SS Landed / min2.29
51%Str Acc44%
2.14SS Absorbed / min1.59
44%Str Def55%
0.07KD / fight0.00
Grappling
3.58TD / min3.48
66%TD Def80%
1.40Sub Att · /15m0.50
100%Sub Def100%
Finish History
Dawson
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×5
Finish Rate (Wins)
58%
7/12
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
2/2
Aliev
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
0%
0/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
—
—
Dawson40% distance
Finish 60%Decision 40%
Aliev100% distance
Finish 0%Decision 100%
Dawson 15 UFC fights·Aliev 4 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Dawson
11.3min
Aliev
15.0min
Combined Distance Rate
53%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
DawsonWinAliev
17%
KO
0%
42%
Sub
0%
42%
Dec
100%
12 wins2 KO5 Sub5 Dec
4 Dec4 wins
DawsonLossAliev
100%
KO
—
0%
Sub
—
0%
Dec
—
2 losses2 KO
—
CQ Finish Risk
Dawson
to knock out
Aliev
21Low
Aliev
to knock out
Dawson
32Elevated
Dawson
to submit
Aliev
36Elevated
Aliev
to submit
Dawson
10Minimal
Recent Form
Dawson
Stat
Aliev
3.08
3.14 career
↓0.06
SLpMOutput
↓0.09
2.20
2.29 career
2.58
2.14 career
↑0.44
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.50
2.09
1.59 career
7.47
9.28 career
↓1.81
TD AttAtt/15m
↑0.67
6.67
6.00 career
1.87
1.40 career
↑0.47
SubAtt/15m
↑0.17
0.67
0.50 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Dawson—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·15 fights
W
Mateusz RebeckiLW Bout
SUB · R3 · 4:42 · May '26
35 SS (37%)·33 abs·1/3 td·1 td taken·428s ctrl·1 kd taken·4 sub att
L
Manuel TorresLW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:25 · Dec '25
8 SS (38%)·9 abs·0/2 td·1 kd taken
W
Diego FerreiraVeteranLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25
56 SS (57%)·41 abs·6/11 td·650s ctrl
W
Rafa GarciaLW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:42 · Oct '24
44 SS (49%)·5 abs·2/4 td·309s ctrl
W
Joe SoleckiLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
46 SS (66%)·12 abs·3/3 td·826s ctrl
L
King GreenVeteranTITLELW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 0:33 · Oct '23
0 SS (0%)·7 abs·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Aliev—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·4 fights
W
Mike DavisLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jul '26
13 SS (38%)·22 abs·8/13 td·745s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Shem RockLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '25
51 SS (44%)·44 abs·1/5 td·1 td taken·224s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Joe SoleckiLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25
35 SS (40%)·28 abs·2/2 td·1 td taken·493s ctrl
W
Rafael AlvesLW Bout
M-DEC · R3 · Feb '23
19 SS (42%)·6 abs·3/4 td·651s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WJosh Wick
DWCSKO/TKOR1Oct 2022
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Joe SoleckiSame result
W
Dawson
UD·R3·2024
W
Aliev
UD·R3·2025
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X