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Matchup Analysis·Featherweight Bout
↑UFC Freedom 2507 / 7
←Nickal vs Daukaus→
Red Corner

Diego Lopes

27-89 UFCLast4mo ago
Balanced
3× Title
3× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
5'11"ht·72"reach·Orthodoxstance·31age
VS
Featherweight145 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Steve Garcia

“Mean Machine”
19-510 UFCLast7mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Hot Streak
Title Fight
High Variance
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
6'0"ht·75"+3"reach·Southpawstance·34age
CQ
EdgesElevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingGarciaDominant
DecisionGarciaSlight edge
GrapplingGarciaSlight edge
KO Adv.LopesDominant
Sub Adv.LopesSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
1 signal
SOUTHPAW

Garcia is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Garcia natural angle advantages at range.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Garcia
Lopes
-0.73
Garcia
+3.27
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Garcia
Lopes
0.11
Garcia
0.28
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Garcia
Lopes
42%
Garcia
59%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Lopes
96
Ironclad
Garcia
74
Durable
0 KO lossesKO losses1 KO loss
0.00KD / fight0.50
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Lopes3.83SLpM
+
SLpM5.39Garcia
9.2
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
LopesOutput Holds Steady-14% R1→R3
GarciaEarly Finisher
Finish History
Lopes
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
67%
4/6
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/3
Garcia
KO/TKO ×7
Finish rate (wins)
88%
7/8
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
1/2
Edge & Exposure
Lopes

No dominant edges or exposures identified from UFC record.

Garcia
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Opposition Quality
Lopes6–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–3
Record (9)
+2.0
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-29% step-up
2–2
Record (4)
-0.4
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Garcia8–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
3–2
Record (5)
+4.1
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
LopesFeatherweightGarcia
26th
Striking Differential
97th
50th
Grappling Threat
45th
33rd
Round Win Rate
71st
65th
TD Defense
97th
94th
Durability
58th
61st
Finishing Rate
70th
Recent Form
Lopes
Stat
Garcia
3.463.83 career
↓0.37
SLpMOutput
↑0.82
6.215.39 career
5.004.56 career
↑0.44
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.83
1.292.12 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
0.001.40 career
⚠↓1.40
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Lopes56% distance
Finish 44%Decision 56%
Garcia20% distance
Finish 80%Decision 20%
Lopes 9 UFC fights·Garcia 10 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Lopes
12.2min
Garcia
6.0min
Combined Distance Rate
37%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
LopesTO KNOCK OUTGarcia
65
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins6
Garcia's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses2
GarciaTO KNOCK OUTLopes
34
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins7
Total UFC wins8
Lopes's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses3
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
LopesTO SUBMITGarcia
20
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins6
Garcia's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses2
GarciaTO SUBMITLopes
8
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins8
Lopes's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses3
LopesWin MethodGarcia
50%
KO / TKO
88%
17%
Submission
0%
33%
Decision
13%
6 UFC wins · 3 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec8 UFC wins · 7 KO · 1 Dec
Lopes
Loss Method
Garcia
0%
KO / TKO
50%
0%
Submission
0%
100%
Decision
50%
3 UFC losses · 3 Dec2 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Dec
Lopes4 stoppages · 3 KO · 1 Sub
R1
3
R2
1
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
Sub Win
All stoppages
WKOJean SilvaR2 · 4:48
WKOSodiq YusuffR1 · 1:29
WKOPat SabatiniR1 · 1:30
WSubGavin TuckerR1 · 1:38
Garcia8 stoppages · 8 KO
R1
5
R2
3
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
WKODavid OnamaR1 · 3:34
WKOKyle NelsonR1 · 3:59
WKOSeungWoo ChoiR1 · 1:36
WKOMelquizael CostaR2 · 1:01
WKOShayilan NuerdanbiekeR2 · 0:36
Historical Context
Lopes — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·9 fights
L
Alexander VolkanovskiVeteranTITLEFW
U-DEC
R5
Jan '26
70 SS (44%)·98 abs·2/5 td·2 td taken·110s ctrl
W
Jean SilvaTITLEFW
KO/TKO
R24:48
Sep '25
74 SS (55%)·43 abs·3/4 td·160s ctrl·1 kd
L
Alexander VolkanovskiVeteranTITLEFW
U-DEC
R5
Apr '25
63 SS (32%)·158 abs·1 td taken·5s ctrl·1 kd
W
Brian OrtegaVeteranFW
U-DEC
R3
Sep '24
106 SS (51%)·63 abs·1/1 td·165s ctrl
W
Dan IgeVeteranCatch Weight
U-DEC
R3
Jun '24
49 SS (49%)·42 abs·1/3 td·246s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Sodiq YusuffFW
KO/TKO
R11:29
Apr '24
26 SS (81%)·2 abs·34s ctrl·2 kd
View full fight log →
Garcia — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·10 fights
W
David OnamaTITLEFW
KO/TKO
R13:34
Nov '25
33 SS (53%)·2 abs·1 kd
W
Calvin KattarFW
U-DEC
R3
Jul '25
85 SS (34%)·26 abs·1 kd
W
Kyle NelsonFW
KO/TKO
R13:59
Sep '24
22 SS (59%)·1 abs·96s ctrl
W
SeungWoo ChoiFW
KO/TKO
R11:36
Jul '24
15 SS (56%)·9 abs·0/1 td·37s ctrl·1 kd
W
Melquizael CostaLW
KO/TKO
R21:01
Dec '23
29 SS (59%)·6 abs·2 td taken·46s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeFW
KO/TKO
R20:36
Apr '23
17 SS (43%)·18 abs·1 td taken·15s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Matchup·FW·3R
↑UFC Freedom 250
7/7←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Diego Lopes

27-89 UFC4mo ago
5'11"ht72"reachOrthodox31 yrs
VS·FW·3R
Blue Corner

Steve Garcia

“Mean Machine”
19-510 UFC7mo ago
6'0"ht75"+3"reachSouthpaw34 yrs
CQ
Edges
Elevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingGarciaDominant
DecisionGarciaSlight edge
GrapplingGarciaSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.LopesDominant
Sub Adv.LopesSlight edge
Signals
1
SOUTHPAWGarcia is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Garcia
Lopes-0.73
Garcia+3.27
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Garcia
Lopes0.11
Garcia0.28
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Garcia
Lopes42%
Garcia59%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Lopes
96Ironclad
Garcia
74Durable
Stats
Lopes
Garcia
Striking
3.83SS Landed / min5.39
47%Str Acc49%
4.56SS Absorbed / min2.12
45%Str Def59%
0.56KD / fight0.80
Grappling
0.88TD / min0.86
68%TD Def88%
1.40Sub Att · /15m0.40
100%Sub Def100%
Finish History
Lopes
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
67%
4/6
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/3
Garcia
KO/TKO ×7
Finish Rate (Wins)
88%
7/8
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
1/2
Lopes56% distance
Finish 44%Decision 56%
Garcia20% distance
Finish 80%Decision 20%
Lopes 9 UFC fights·Garcia 10 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Lopes
12.2min
Garcia
6.0min
Combined Distance Rate
37%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
LopesWinGarcia
50%
KO
88%
17%
Sub
0%
33%
Dec
13%
6 wins3 KO1 Sub2 Dec
1 Dec7 KO8 wins
LopesLossGarcia
0%
KO
50%
0%
Sub
0%
100%
Dec
50%
3 losses3 Dec
1 Dec1 KO2 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Lopes
to knock out
Garcia
65Elite
Garcia
to knock out
Lopes
34Elevated
Lopes
to submit
Garcia
20Low
Garcia
to submit
Lopes
8Minimal
Recent Form
Lopes
Stat
Garcia
3.46
3.83 career
↓0.37
SLpMOutput
↑0.82
6.21
5.39 career
5.00
4.56 career
↑0.44
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.83
1.29
2.12 career
0.00
1.40 career
↓1.40
SubAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Lopes—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·9 fights
L
Alexander VolkanovskiVeteranTITLEFW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Jan '26
70 SS (44%)·98 abs·2/5 td·2 td taken·110s ctrl
W
Jean SilvaTITLEFW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:48 · Sep '25
74 SS (55%)·43 abs·3/4 td·160s ctrl·1 kd
L
Alexander VolkanovskiVeteranTITLEFW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Apr '25
63 SS (32%)·158 abs·1 td taken·5s ctrl·1 kd
W
Brian OrtegaVeteranFW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Sep '24
106 SS (51%)·63 abs·1/1 td·165s ctrl
W
Dan IgeVeteranCatch Weight Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
49 SS (49%)·42 abs·1/3 td·246s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Sodiq YusuffFW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:29 · Apr '24
26 SS (81%)·2 abs·34s ctrl·2 kd
View full fight log →
Garcia—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·10 fights
W
David OnamaTITLEFW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:34 · Nov '25
33 SS (53%)·2 abs·1 kd
W
Calvin KattarFW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jul '25
85 SS (34%)·26 abs·1 kd
W
Kyle NelsonFW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:59 · Sep '24
22 SS (59%)·1 abs·96s ctrl
W
SeungWoo ChoiFW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:36 · Jul '24
15 SS (56%)·9 abs·0/1 td·37s ctrl·1 kd
W
Melquizael CostaLW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:01 · Dec '23
29 SS (59%)·6 abs·2 td taken·46s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeFW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 0:36 · Apr '23
17 SS (43%)·18 abs·1 td taken·15s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X