Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
Red Corner
21-7-120 UFCLast5mo ago
Balanced
Declining
5× Title
5× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
High Wear
5'11"+3"ht·72"+3"reach·Orthodoxstance·37age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner
Brian Ortega
“T-City”
16-5(1 NC)14 UFCLast1.1yr ago
Balanced
Declining
6× Title
7× 5R
High Variance
Output Builds Late
High Wear
5'8"ht·69"reach·Switchstance·35age
Signals1 signal
WC DEBUT
Ortega is making their UFC debut at Lightweight, moving up from Featherweight.
CQ Core Edges
Moicano
+0.55
Ortega
-2.54
Moicano
0.77
Ortega
0.33
Moicano
62%
Ortega
30%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Moicano
66
AverageOrtega
67
Average3 KO lossesKO losses2 KO losses
0.20KD / fight0.14
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moicano4.10SLpM
+SLpM3.84Ortega
7.9
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
MoicanoOutput Builds Late+37% R1→R3
OrtegaOutput Builds Late+86% R1→R3
Finish History
Moicano
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×7
Finish rate (wins)
69%
9/13
Stopped rate (losses)
71%
5/7
Ortega
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×4
Finish rate (wins)
88%
7/8
Stopped rate (losses)
40%
2/5
Edge & Exposure
Moicano
EdgePressure Fighter
Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.
Ortega
EdgeHigh Finisher
Finishes the majority of opponents. Gets the stoppage when ahead on the scorecards.
ExposureWear Concern
High accumulated UFC fight volume. Susceptible to opponents who apply pressure in later rounds.
Opposition Quality
Moicano13–7UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
9–7
Record (16)
-0.7
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-36% step-up
4–4
Record (8)
-0.2
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
0–3
Record (3)
-1.1
Str Diff/Min
—
Finish (W)
Ortega8–5UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
8–5
Record (13)
-2.3
Str Diff/Min
88%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)-17% step-up
5–4
Record (9)
-2.7
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
vs. Elite Opps (≥15 UFC wins)
1–2
Record (3)
-4.1
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
MoicanoLightweightOrtega
64th
Striking Differential
5th61st
Grappling Threat
32nd73rd
Round Win Rate
6th42nd
TD Defense
27th46th
Durability
42nd71st
Finishing Rate
69thRecent Form
Moicano
Stat
Ortega
2.234.10 career
⚠↓1.87
SLpMOutput
↓0.98
2.863.84 career
3.263.55 career
↓0.29
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.79
5.596.38 career
3.844.15 career
↓0.31
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.78
2.943.72 career
0.550.60 career
↓0.05
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.61
0.290.90 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Moicano30% distance
Finish 70%Decision 30%
Ortega29% distance
Finish 71%Decision 29%
Moicano 20 UFC fights·Ortega 14 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Moicano
9.4min
Ortega
13.8min
Combined Distance Rate
29%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
MoicanoTO KNOCK OUTOrtega
34
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins13
Ortega's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses5
OrtegaTO KNOCK OUTMoicano
51
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins8
Moicano's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses7
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
MoicanoTO SUBMITOrtega
22
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins7
Total UFC wins13
Ortega's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses5
OrtegaTO SUBMITMoicano
74
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins4
Total UFC wins8
Moicano's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses7
MoicanoWin MethodOrtega
15%
KO / TKO
38%
54%
Submission
50%
31%
Decision
13%
13 UFC wins · 2 KO · 7 Sub · 4 Dec8 UFC wins · 3 KO · 4 Sub · 1 Dec
Moicano
Loss Method
Ortega43%
KO / TKO
40%
29%
Submission
0%
29%
Decision
60%
7 UFC losses · 3 KO · 2 Sub · 2 Dec5 UFC losses · 2 KO · 3 Dec
Moicano14 stoppages · 5 KO · 9 Sub
R1
6
R2
7
R3
1
R40
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WSubChris DuncanR2 · 3:14
LSubIslam MakhachevR1 · 4:05
WKOBenoit Saint DenisR2 · 5:00
WKOJalin TurnerR2 · 4:11
WSubBrad RiddellR1 · 3:20
Ortega10 stoppages · 5 KO · 4 Sub
R1
3
R2
1
R3
5
R4
1
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
All stoppages
WSubYair RodriguezR3 · 0:58
LKOYair RodriguezR1 · 4:11
LKOMax HollowayR4 · 5:00
WKOFrankie EdgarR1 · 4:44
WSubCub SwansonR2 · 3:22
Historical Context
Moicano — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
21 SS (58%)·27 abs·1/4 td·196s ctrl·1 sub att
31 SS (51%)·56 abs·0/3 td·5 td taken·80s ctrl·1 kd
9 SS (33%)·6 abs·1 td taken
50 SS (69%)·25 abs·1/3 td·293s ctrl
36 SS (54%)·16 abs·2/6 td·350s ctrl·1 kd taken
23 SS (55%)·23 abs·3/6 td·1 td taken·633s ctrl
Ortega — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
55 SS (32%)·124 abs·0/2 td·3 td taken·8s ctrl
63 SS (32%)·106 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken·6s ctrl
28 SS (38%)·55 abs·3/6 td·321s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att
22 SS (63%)·23 abs·1/5 td·144s ctrl
88 SS (38%)·214 abs·2/5 td·54s ctrl·3 sub att
127 SS (60%)·62 abs·3/10 td·57s ctrl·2 kd
Common Opponents
Cub SwansonSame result
W
Moicano
Sub·R1·2018
W
Ortega
Sub·R2·2017
Chan Sung JungSplit result
L
Moicano
KO/TKO·R1·2019
W
Ortega
UD·R5·2020