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Matchup Analysis·Flyweight Bout
↑UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi1 / 13
←Cutelaba vs Stirling→
Red Corner

Manel Kape

“StarBoy”
22-710 UFCLast6mo ago
Pressure Fighter
2× Title
2× 5R
High Variance
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
5'5"ht·68"+5"reach·Southpawstance·32age
VS
Flyweight125 lbs
5R
Blue Corner

Kyoji Horiguchi

“Karate Kid”
36-5(1 NC)10 UFCLast4mo ago
Balanced
Hot Streak
Title Fight
Output Builds Late
Moderate Wear
5'4"ht·63"reach·Orthodoxstance·35age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingHoriguchiSlight edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.KapeSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
2 signals
SOUTHPAW

Kape is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Kape natural angle advantages at range.

REACH CLIFF

Kape has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Kape's reach is a structural advantage.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Kape
+0.96
Horiguchi
+1.64
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Horiguchi
Kape
0.16
Horiguchi
0.31
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Kape
67%
Horiguchi
72%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Kape
97
Ironclad
Horiguchi
97
Ironclad
0 KO lossesKO losses0 KO losses
0.00KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Kape5.04SLpM
+
SLpM3.77Horiguchi
8.8
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
KapeOutput Builds Late+47% R1→R3
HoriguchiOutput Builds Late+37% R1→R3
Finish History
Kape
KO/TKO ×5
Finish rate (wins)
71%
5/7
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/3
Horiguchi
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
33%
3/9
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
1/1
Edge & Exposure
Kape
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Horiguchi
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Opposition Quality
Kape7–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–3
Record (8)
+0.8
Str Diff/Min
80%
Finish (W)
Horiguchi9–1UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
4–1
Record (5)
+1.9
Str Diff/Min
25%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
KapeFlyweightHoriguchi
82nd
Striking Differential
91st
17th
Grappling Threat
64th
81st
Round Win Rate
91st
87th
TD Defense
41st
97th
Durability
97th
71st
Finishing Rate
15th
Recent Form
Kape
Stat
Horiguchi
6.875.04 career
↑1.83
SLpMOutput
↑0.41
4.183.77 career
4.144.08 career
↑0.06
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.76
1.372.13 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑0.29
4.263.97 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Kape50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Horiguchi60% distance
Finish 40%Decision 60%
Kape 10 UFC fights·Horiguchi 10 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Kape
11.1min
Horiguchi
14.0min
Combined Distance Rate
55%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
KapeTO KNOCK OUTHoriguchi
31
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins5
Total UFC wins7
Horiguchi's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses1
HoriguchiTO KNOCK OUTKape
23
Low
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins9
Kape's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses3
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
KapeTO SUBMITHoriguchi
24
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins7
Horiguchi's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses1
HoriguchiTO SUBMITKape
12
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins9
Kape's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses3
KapeWin MethodHoriguchi
71%
KO / TKO
22%
0%
Submission
11%
29%
Decision
67%
7 UFC wins · 5 KO · 2 Dec9 UFC wins · 2 KO · 1 Sub · 6 Dec
Kape
Loss Method
Horiguchi
0%
KO / TKO
0%
0%
Submission
100%
100%
Decision
0%
3 UFC losses · 3 Dec1 UFC loss · 1 Sub
Kape5 stoppages · 5 KO
R1
3
R2
0
R3
2
R4
0
R5
0
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
All stoppages
WKOBrandon RoyvalR1 · 3:18
WKOAsu AlmabayevR3 · 2:16
WKOBruno SilvaR3 · 1:57
WKOZhalgas ZhumagulovR1 · 4:02
WKOOde OsbourneR1 · 4:44
Horiguchi4 stoppages · 2 KO · 2 Sub
R1
1
R2
1
R3
1
R4
0
R5
1
R1R2R3R4R5
KO Win
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WSubTagir UlanbekovR3 · 2:18
LSubDemetrious JohnsonR5 · 4:59
WKOJon Delos ReyesR1 · 3:48
WKODustin PagueR2 · 3:51
Historical Context
Kape — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Brandon RoyvalTITLEFLY
KO/TKO
R13:18
Dec '25
17 SS (74%)·17 abs·1 kd
W
Asu AlmabayevTITLEFLY
KO/TKO
R32:16
Mar '25
61 SS (53%)·40 abs·0/1 td·29s ctrl
W
Bruno SilvaFLY
KO/TKO
R31:57
Dec '24
111 SS (66%)·57 abs·1 kd
L
Muhammad MokaevFLY
U-DEC
R3
Jul '24
20 SS (42%)·30 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken
W
Felipe dos SantosFLY
U-DEC
R3
Sep '23
112 SS (62%)·99 abs·1/1 td·45s ctrl·1 kd
W
David DvorakFLY
U-DEC
R3
Dec '22
58 SS (49%)·33 abs·2 td taken·57s ctrl·1 kd·2 sub att
View full fight log →
Horiguchi — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Amir AlbaziFLY
U-DEC
R3
Feb '26
73 SS (54%)·16 abs·0/2 td·62s ctrl
W
Tagir UlanbekovFLY
SUB
R32:18
Nov '25
49 SS (64%)·6 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·334s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att
W
Ali BagautinovFLY
U-DEC
R3
Nov '16
55 SS (60%)·36 abs·4/9 td·2 td taken·272s ctrl
W
Neil SeeryFLY
U-DEC
R3
May '16
72 SS (50%)·40 abs·6/8 td·347s ctrl·2 kd
W
Chico CamusFLY
U-DEC
R3
Sep '15
78 SS (35%)·63 abs·0/5 td·20s ctrl
L
Demetrious JohnsonVeteranTITLEFLY
SUB
R54:59
Apr '15
31 SS (34%)·66 abs·1/5 td·14 td taken·62s ctrl
View full fight log →
Matchup·FLY·5R
↑UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
1/13←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Manel Kape

“StarBoy”
22-710 UFC6mo ago
5'5"ht68"+5"reachSouthpaw32 yrs
VS·FLY·5R
Blue Corner

Kyoji Horiguchi

“Karate Kid”
36-5(1 NC)10 UFC4mo ago
5'4"ht63"reachOrthodox35 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingHoriguchiSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.KapeSlight edge
Signals
2
SOUTHPAWKape is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.
REACH CLIFFKape has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Kape's reach is a structural advantage.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Kape+0.96
Horiguchi+1.64
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Horiguchi
Kape0.16
Horiguchi0.31
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Kape67%
Horiguchi72%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Kape
97Ironclad
Horiguchi
97Ironclad
Stats
Kape
Horiguchi
Striking
5.04SS Landed / min3.77
56%Str Acc47%
4.08SS Absorbed / min2.13
57%Str Def63%
0.70KD / fight0.60
Grappling
0.40TD / min1.61
81%TD Def61%
0.30Sub Att · /15m0.10
100%Sub Def88%
Finish History
Kape
KO/TKO ×5
Finish Rate (Wins)
71%
5/7
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/3
Horiguchi
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
33%
3/9
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
1/1
Kape50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Horiguchi60% distance
Finish 40%Decision 60%
Kape 10 UFC fights·Horiguchi 10 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Kape
11.1min
Horiguchi
14.0min
Combined Distance Rate
55%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
KapeWinHoriguchi
71%
KO
22%
0%
Sub
11%
29%
Dec
67%
7 wins5 KO2 Dec
6 Dec1 Sub2 KO9 wins
KapeLossHoriguchi
0%
KO
0%
0%
Sub
100%
100%
Dec
0%
3 losses3 Dec
1 Sub1 loss
CQ Finish Risk
Kape
to knock out
Horiguchi
31Elevated
Horiguchi
to knock out
Kape
23Low
Kape
to submit
Horiguchi
24Low
Horiguchi
to submit
Kape
12Low
Recent Form
Kape
Stat
Horiguchi
6.87
5.04 career
↑1.83
SLpMOutput
↑0.41
4.18
3.77 career
4.14
4.08 career
↑0.06
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.76
1.37
2.13 career
—
TD AttAtt/15m
↑0.29
4.26
3.97 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Kape—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Brandon RoyvalTITLEFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:18 · Dec '25
17 SS (74%)·17 abs·1 kd
W
Asu AlmabayevTITLEFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 2:16 · Mar '25
61 SS (53%)·40 abs·0/1 td·29s ctrl
W
Bruno SilvaFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 1:57 · Dec '24
111 SS (66%)·57 abs·1 kd
L
Muhammad MokaevFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jul '24
20 SS (42%)·30 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken
W
Felipe dos SantosFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Sep '23
112 SS (62%)·99 abs·1/1 td·45s ctrl·1 kd
W
David DvorakFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Dec '22
58 SS (49%)·33 abs·2 td taken·57s ctrl·1 kd·2 sub att
View full fight log →
Horiguchi—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Amir AlbaziFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Feb '26
73 SS (54%)·16 abs·0/2 td·62s ctrl
W
Tagir UlanbekovFLY Bout
SUB · R3 · 2:18 · Nov '25
49 SS (64%)·6 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·334s ctrl·2 kd·1 sub att
W
Ali BagautinovFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '16
55 SS (60%)·36 abs·4/9 td·2 td taken·272s ctrl
W
Neil SeeryFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '16
72 SS (50%)·40 abs·6/8 td·347s ctrl·2 kd
W
Chico CamusFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Sep '15
78 SS (35%)·63 abs·0/5 td·20s ctrl
L
Demetrious JohnsonVeteranTITLEFLY Bout
SUB · R5 · 4:59 · Apr '15
31 SS (34%)·66 abs·1/5 td·14 td taken·62s ctrl
View full fight log →
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CageQuant

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Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X