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Matchup Analysis·Light Heavyweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov1 / 12
←Erceg vs Temirov→
Red Corner

Magomed Ankalaev

21-2-1(1 NC)16 UFCLast10mo ago
Balanced
4× Title
5× 5R
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
6'3"ht·75"reach·Orthodoxstance·34age
VS
Light Heavyweight205 lbs
5R
Blue Corner

Bogdan Guskov

“Hitman”
18-3-16 UFCLast7mo ago
Balanced
Hot Streak
High Variance
Early Chaos
Output Builds Late
6'3"ht·76"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
CQ
EdgesElevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionAnkalaevClear edge
GrapplingAnkalaevSlight edge
KO Adv.GuskovClear edge
Sub Adv.GuskovDominant
DurabilityNo edge
CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Ankalaev
+1.06
Guskov
+0.48
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Ankalaev
Ankalaev
0.34
Guskov
0.00
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Ankalaev
Ankalaev
79%
Guskov
50%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Ankalaev
88
Durable
Guskov
86
Durable
1 KO lossKO losses0 KO losses
0.06KD / fight0.33
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Ankalaev3.65SLpM
+
SLpM4.57Guskov
8.2
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
AnkalaevOutput Holds Steady+4% R1→R3
GuskovEarly Finisher
Finish History
Ankalaev
KO/TKO ×6
Finish rate (wins)
50%
6/12
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
2/2
Guskov
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
1/1
Edge & Exposure
Ankalaev
EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Guskov
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgePressure Fighter

Output holds or improves as the fight extends. Wins the striking exchange in later rounds when opponents expect a slowdown.

Opposition Quality
Ankalaev12–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
9–1
Record (12)
-0.1
Str Diff/Min
44%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
-4% step-up
5–1
Record (8)
-1.4
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
Guskov4–1UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–0
Record (3)
+1.1
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)
+19% step-up
2–0
Record (3)
+1.1
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
AnkalaevLight HeavyweightGuskov
73rd
Striking Differential
59th
39th
Grappling Threat
8th
96th
Round Win Rate
47th
84th
TD Defense
32nd
96th
Durability
92nd
18th
Finishing Rate
85th
Recent Form
Ankalaev
Stat
Guskov
3.703.65 career
↑0.05
SLpMOutput
↑0.82
5.394.57 career
3.802.59 career
⚠↑1.21
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.22
4.314.09 career
4.723.57 career
↑1.15
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↑0.38
1.080.70 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Outcome Signal
Elevated Finish Risk
Ankalaev44% distance
Finish 56%Decision 44%
Guskov17% distance
Finish 83%Decision 17%
Ankalaev 16 UFC fights·Guskov 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Ankalaev
11.8min
Guskov
7.3min
Combined Distance Rate
36%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
AnkalaevTO KNOCK OUTGuskov
42
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins6
Total UFC wins12
Guskov's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses1
GuskovTO KNOCK OUTAnkalaev
61
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins3
Total UFC wins4
Ankalaev's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses1
Total UFC losses2
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
AnkalaevTO SUBMITGuskov
14
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins12
Guskov's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses1
GuskovTO SUBMITAnkalaev
64
Elite
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins4
Ankalaev's Sub Losses
Sub losses1
Total UFC losses2
AnkalaevWin MethodGuskov
50%
KO / TKO
75%
0%
Submission
25%
50%
Decision
0%
12 UFC wins · 6 KO · 6 Dec4 UFC wins · 3 KO · 1 Sub
Ankalaev
Loss Method
Guskov
50%
KO / TKO
0%
50%
Submission
100%
0%
Decision
0%
2 UFC losses · 1 KO · 1 Sub1 UFC loss · 1 Sub
Ankalaev9 stoppages · 7 KO · 1 Sub
R1
5
R2
2
R3
2
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LKOAlex PereiraR1 · 1:20
WKOJohnny WalkerR2 · 2:42
NCFinJohnny WalkerR1 · 3:13
WKOAnthony SmithR2 · 3:09
WKOIon CutelabaR1 · 4:19
Guskov5 stoppages · 3 KO · 2 Sub
R1
3
R2
2
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
WKONikita KrylovR1 · 4:18
WSubBilly ElekanaR2 · 3:33
WKORyan SpannR2 · 3:16
WKOZac PaugaR1 · 3:38
LSubVolkan OezdemirR1 · 3:46
Historical Context
Ankalaev — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Alex PereiraVeteranTITLELHW
KO/TKO
R11:20
Oct '25
4 SS (44%)·28 abs·0/1 td
W
Alex PereiraVeteranTITLELHW
U-DEC
R5
Mar '25
94 SS (52%)·76 abs·0/12 td·342s ctrl
W
Aleksandar RakicLHW
U-DEC
R3
Oct '24
55 SS (48%)·53 abs·91s ctrl
W
Johnny WalkerVeteranLHW
KO/TKO
R22:42
Jan '24
39 SS (67%)·24 abs·5s ctrl·1 kd
NC
Johnny WalkerVeteranLHW
Could Not …
R1
Oct '23
13 SS (68%)·14 abs·1/1 td·66s ctrl
D
Jan BlachowiczVeteranTITLELHW
S-DEC
R5
Dec '22
78 SS (42%)·55 abs·2/10 td·680s ctrl
View full fight log →
Guskov — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
D
Jan BlachowiczVeteranLHW
M-DEC
R3
Dec '25
80 SS (57%)·84 abs·249s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
W
Nikita KrylovVeteranLHW
KO/TKO
R14:18
Jul '25
23 SS (53%)·16 abs·17s ctrl·1 kd
W
Billy ElekanaLHW
SUB
R23:33
Jan '25
47 SS (66%)·20 abs·1 td taken·84s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Ryan SpannVeteranLHW
KO/TKO
R23:16
Apr '24
31 SS (65%)·15 abs·1 td taken·20s ctrl·1 kd
W
Zac PaugaLHW
KO/TKO
R13:38
Feb '24
10 SS (34%)·17 abs·1 kd
L
Volkan OezdemirLHW
SUB
R13:46
Sep '23
8 SS (32%)·26 abs·1 td taken·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Nikita KrylovSame result
W
Ankalaev
UD·R3·2021
W
Guskov
KO/TKO·R1·2025
Jan BlachowiczSame result
D
Ankalaev
SD·R5·2022
D
Guskov
MD·R3·2025
Volkan OezdemirSplit result
W
Ankalaev
UD·R3·2021
L
Guskov
Sub·R1·2023
Matchup·LHW·5R
↑UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
1/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Magomed Ankalaev

21-2-1(1 NC)16 UFC10mo ago
6'3"ht75"reachOrthodox34 yrs
VS·LHW·5R
Blue Corner

Bogdan Guskov

“Hitman”
18-3-16 UFC7mo ago
6'3"ht76"reachOrthodox33 yrs
CQ
Edges
Elevated Finish Risk
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionAnkalaevClear edge
GrapplingAnkalaevSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.GuskovClear edge
Sub Adv.GuskovDominant
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Ankalaev+1.06
Guskov+0.48
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Ankalaev
Ankalaev0.34
Guskov0.00
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Ankalaev
Ankalaev79%
Guskov50%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Ankalaev
88Durable
Guskov
86Durable
Stats
Ankalaev
Guskov
Striking
3.65SS Landed / min4.57
52%Str Acc55%
2.59SS Absorbed / min4.09
56%Str Def44%
0.44KD / fight0.67
Grappling
0.79TD / min0.00
87%TD Def57%
0.00Sub Att · /15m0.70
0%Sub Def67%
Finish History
Ankalaev
KO/TKO ×6
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
6/12
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
2/2
Guskov
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
1/1
Ankalaev44% distance
Finish 56%Decision 44%
Guskov17% distance
Finish 83%Decision 17%
Ankalaev 16 UFC fights·Guskov 6 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Ankalaev
11.8min
Guskov
7.3min
Combined Distance Rate
36%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
AnkalaevWinGuskov
50%
KO
75%
0%
Sub
25%
50%
Dec
0%
12 wins6 KO6 Dec
1 Sub3 KO4 wins
AnkalaevLossGuskov
50%
KO
0%
50%
Sub
100%
0%
Dec
0%
2 losses1 KO1 Sub
1 Sub1 loss
CQ Finish Risk
Ankalaev
to knock out
Guskov
42High
Guskov
to knock out
Ankalaev
61Elite
Ankalaev
to submit
Guskov
14Low
Guskov
to submit
Ankalaev
64Elite
Recent Form
Ankalaev
Stat
Guskov
3.70
3.65 career
↑0.05
SLpMOutput
↑0.82
5.39
4.57 career
3.80
2.59 career
↑1.21
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.22
4.31
4.09 career
4.72
3.57 career
↑1.15
TD AttAtt/15m
—
—
SubAtt/15m
↑0.38
1.08
0.70 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Ankalaev—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Alex PereiraVeteranTITLELHW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:20 · Oct '25
4 SS (44%)·28 abs·0/1 td
W
Alex PereiraVeteranTITLELHW Bout
U-DEC · R5 · Mar '25
94 SS (52%)·76 abs·0/12 td·342s ctrl
W
Aleksandar RakicLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '24
55 SS (48%)·53 abs·91s ctrl
W
Johnny WalkerVeteranLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 2:42 · Jan '24
39 SS (67%)·24 abs·5s ctrl·1 kd
NC
Johnny WalkerVeteranLHW Bout
Could Not … · R1 · Oct '23
13 SS (68%)·14 abs·1/1 td·66s ctrl
D
Jan BlachowiczVeteranTITLELHW Bout
S-DEC · R5 · Dec '22
78 SS (42%)·55 abs·2/10 td·680s ctrl
View full fight log →
Guskov—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
D
Jan BlachowiczVeteranLHW Bout
M-DEC · R3 · Dec '25
80 SS (57%)·84 abs·249s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
W
Nikita KrylovVeteranLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:18 · Jul '25
23 SS (53%)·16 abs·17s ctrl·1 kd
W
Billy ElekanaLHW Bout
SUB · R2 · 3:33 · Jan '25
47 SS (66%)·20 abs·1 td taken·84s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Ryan SpannVeteranLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 3:16 · Apr '24
31 SS (65%)·15 abs·1 td taken·20s ctrl·1 kd
W
Zac PaugaLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:38 · Feb '24
10 SS (34%)·17 abs·1 kd
L
Volkan OezdemirLHW Bout
SUB · R1 · 3:46 · Sep '23
8 SS (32%)·26 abs·1 td taken·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Nikita KrylovSame result
W
Ankalaev
UD·R3·2021
W
Guskov
KO/TKO·R1·2025
Volkan OezdemirSplit result
W
Ankalaev
UD·R3·2021
L
Guskov
Sub·R1·2023
Jan BlachowiczSame result
D
Ankalaev
SD·R5·2022
D
Guskov
Dec·R3·2025
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X