Matchup Analysis·Middleweight
Red Corner
Jared Cannonier
“The Killa Gorilla”
18-920 UFCLast11mo ago
Pressure Fighter
Declining
8× Title
8× 5R
High Wear
5'11"ht·77"reach·Switchstance·42age
VS
Middleweight185 lbs
3R
Blue Corner
14-29 UFCLast4mo ago
Kickboxer
Hot Streak
High Variance
Early Chaos
6'2"+3"ht·79"+2"reach·Switchstance·3011yrage
Signals1 signal
AGE GAP
Cannonier is 12 years older than Duncan.
CQ Core Edges
Cannonier
+0.07
Duncan
+1.84
Cannonier
0.20
Duncan
0.12
Cannonier
39%
Duncan
65%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Cannonier
66
AverageDuncan
96
Ironclad3 KO lossesKO losses0 KO losses
0.40KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Cannonier4.42SLpM
+SLpM4.43Duncan
8.8
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
CannonierOutput Builds Late+25% R1→R3
DuncanOutput Holds Steady-18% R1→R3
Finish History
Cannonier
KO/TKO ×7
Finish rate (wins)
64%
7/11
Stopped rate (losses)
33%
3/9
Duncan
KO/TKO ×5
Finish rate (wins)
71%
5/7
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/2
Edge & Exposure
Cannonier
ExposureMileage Risk
Age and UFC fight volume are both elevated. Vulnerable to opponents who apply sustained pressure late.
Duncan
EdgeKO Threat
Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.
EdgeStriking Dominant
Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.
Opposition Quality
Cannonier11–9UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
8–8
Record (16)
-0.1
Str Diff/Min
63%
Finish (W)
vs. Veteran Opps (≥8 UFC wins)+12% step-up
5–4
Record (9)
+0.1
Str Diff/Min
40%
Finish (W)
Duncan7–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
5–2
Record (7)
+1.4
Str Diff/Min
60%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
CannonierMiddleweightDuncan
50th
Striking Differential
91st28th
Grappling Threat
14th25th
Round Win Rate
75th46th
TD Defense
44th50th
Durability
93rd41st
Finishing Rate
52ndRecent Form
Cannonier
Stat
Duncan
3.634.42 career
↓0.79
SLpMOutput
↓0.72
3.714.43 career
4.974.35 career
↑0.62
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.97
1.622.59 career
—
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Cannonier50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Duncan44% distance
Finish 56%Decision 44%
Cannonier 20 UFC fights·Duncan 9 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Cannonier
13.9min
Duncan
10.1min
Combined Distance Rate
48%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
CannonierTO KNOCK OUTDuncan
27
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins7
Total UFC wins11
Duncan's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses2
DuncanTO KNOCK OUTCannonier
56
Elite
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins5
Total UFC wins7
Cannonier's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses3
Total UFC losses9
CannonierWin MethodDuncan
64%
KO / TKO
71%
0%
Submission
0%
36%
Decision
29%
11 UFC wins · 7 KO · 4 Dec7 UFC wins · 5 KO · 2 Dec
Cannonier
Loss Method
Duncan33%
KO / TKO
0%
0%
Submission
0%
67%
Decision
100%
9 UFC losses · 3 KO · 6 Dec2 UFC losses · 2 Dec
Cannonier10 stoppages · 10 KO
R1
4
R2
3
R3
1
R4
2
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
WKOGregory RodriguesR4 · 0:21
LKONassourdine ImavovR4 · 1:34
WKODerek BrunsonR2 · 4:29
WKOJack HermanssonR2 · 0:27
WKOAnderson SilvaR1 · 4:47
Duncan5 stoppages · 5 KO
R1
2
R2
3
R30
R40
KO Win
All stoppages
WKOMarco TulioR2 · 3:20
WKOEryk AndersR1 · 3:53
WKOClaudio RibeiroR2 · 1:57
WKODenis TiuliulinR2 · 4:24
WKODusko TodorovicR1 · 1:52
Historical Context
Cannonier — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
20 SS (35%)·29 abs·2/7 td·494s ctrl
98 SS (49%)·93 abs·1/3 td·129s ctrl·2 kd·2 kd taken
83 SS (33%)·153 abs·1 kd taken
64 SS (59%)·82 abs·1/1 td·2 td taken·378s ctrl
241 SS (59%)·153 abs·4/6 td·1 td taken·187s ctrl
141 SS (45%)·152 abs·1 td taken
Duncan — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
54 SS (55%)·10 abs·0/2 td·3 td taken·68s ctrl
23 SS (50%)·27 abs·1/1 td·2 td taken·70s ctrl·1 kd
24 SS (56%)·7 abs·1 td taken·39s ctrl·1 kd
73 SS (52%)·18 abs·0/2 td·336s ctrl
29 SS (60%)·45 abs·4 td taken·105s ctrl
65 SS (71%)·4 abs·1/2 td·135s ctrl
Common Opponents
Gregory RodriguesSplit result
W
Cannonier
KO/TKO·R4·2025
L
Duncan
UD·R3·2024