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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos7 / 11
←Bellato vs EdwardsJackson vs Simon→
Red Corner

Elves Brener

16-66 UFCLast1.1yr ago
Kickboxer
High Variance
Output Builds Late
5'10"+3"ht·72"+4"reach·Orthodoxstance·28age
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Josiah Harrell

“The Muscle Hamster”
11-11 UFCLast7mo ago
Finisher
5'7"ht·68"reach·Southpawstance·27age
◈
Uneven DataHarrell has 1 UFC fight on record.
CQ
Edges—
Uneven Data
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo data
GrapplingNo data
KO Adv.BrenerClear edge
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityBrener
Signals
2 signals
STRIKING DEFENSE

Harrell absorbs an unusually high share of incoming strikes. Against a volume striker like Brener, that's a structural vulnerability. KO finishes are meaningfully more common in matchups like this.

WC DEBUT

Harrell is making their UFC debut at Lightweight, moving down from Welterweight.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
No edge
Brener
-1.10
Harrell
+2.21
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
No data
Brener
Opponent data thin
Harrell
Too few fights
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No data
Brener
25%
Harrell
Too few rounds
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Brener
Brener
61
Average
Harrell
32
Low
1 KO lossKO losses1 KO loss
0.33KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Brener4.76SLpM
+
SLpM2.32Harrell
7.1
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Brener
BrenerOutput Builds Late+37% R1→R3
HarrellToo few fights
Finish History
Brener
KO/TKO ×2
Finish rate (wins)
67%
2/3
Stopped rate (losses)
33%
1/3
Harrell
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
—
—
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
1/1
Fighter Context
Brener·UFC 3-3·2 KO · 1 Dec·1 KO loss · 2 Dec loss
Harrell·UFC 0-1·1 KO loss

Sufficient UFC sample.
Full breakdown in edge cards above.

Pre-UFC11-0
Win method
6 KO/TKO4 Sub1 Dec
Avg opponent wins8.2
Wins finished10 of 11
Opposition Quality
Brener3–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–3
Record (5)
-0.6
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
Harrell0–1UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks
BrenerLightweightHarrell
14th
Striking Differential
—
28th
Grappling Threat
—
5th
Round Win Rate
—
77th
TD Defense
—
38th
Durability
—
68th
Finishing Rate
—

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Brener
Stat
Harrell
4.844.76 career
↑0.08
SLpMOutput
—
6.475.86 career
↑0.61
SApMAbsorbed
—
6.885.93 career
↑0.95
TD AttAttempts/15m
—
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Striking
BrenerHarrell1 fight
Div avg
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.76
2.32
Str. Accuracy
47%
50%
Sig. Absorbed / min
5.86
0.11
Str. Defense
50%
29%
CQ KO Power
0.55
—
BrenerStrike DistributionHarrell
By Target
57%
Head
14%
19%
Body
43%
24%
Leg
43%
By Position
92%
Distance
100%
3%
Clinch
0%
5%
Ground
0%
Sig Strikes
Brener
60avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
12.7 min
Goes Dist
50%
Harrell
7avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
3.0 min
Goes Dist
0%
Historical Context
Brener — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Esteban RibovicsLW
U-DEC
R3
Aug '25
118 SS (47%)·122 abs·0/9 td
L
Joel AlvarezLW
KO/TKO
R33:36
Aug '24
45 SS (46%)·95 abs·0/5 td·22s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Myktybek OrolbaiLW
U-DEC
R3
May '24
48 SS (53%)·65 abs·3/6 td·5 td taken·175s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Kaynan KruschewskyCatch Weight
KO/TKO
R14:01
Nov '23
16 SS (48%)·8 abs·1 kd
W
Guram KutateladzeLW
KO/TKO
R33:17
Jul '23
65 SS (49%)·85 abs·2/7 td·1 td taken·168s ctrl·1 kd
W
Zubaira TukhugovLW
S-DEC
R3
Feb '23
69 SS (44%)·70 abs·0/3 td
View full fight log →
Harrell — Fight History
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·1 fight
L
Jacobe SmithWW
KO/TKO
R13:01
Feb '26
7 SS (50%)·33 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken
Pre-UFC Fights·11 fights
W
Bekmyrza Dosmatov13-2
KO/TKOR3Jan 2026
W
Kegan Gennrich9-4
DECAug 2025
W
Melvin Guillard32-22
SUBR1May 2025
W
Quinton Parks Jr.9-4
KO/TKOR2Mar 2025
W
Mike Roberts9-8
KO/TKOR3Jun 2023
View full fight log →
Matchup·LW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
7/11←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Elves Brener

16-66 UFC1.1yr ago
5'10"+3"ht72"+4"reachOrthodox28 yrs
VS·LW·3R
Blue Corner

Josiah Harrell

“The Muscle Hamster”
11-11 UFC7mo ago
5'7"ht68"reachSouthpaw27 yrs
◈
Uneven Data Harrell has 1 UFC fight on record.
CQ
Edges
Uneven Data
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNo edge
DecisionNo data
GrapplingNo data
DurabilityBrener
KO Adv.BrenerClear edge
Sub Adv.No edge
Signals
1
WC DEBUTHarrell is making their UFC debut at Lightweight, moving down from Welterweight.
Fighter Context
Brener·UFC 3-3·2 KO · 1 Dec·1 KO loss · 2 Dec loss

Sufficient UFC sample.
Full breakdown in edge cards above.

Harrell·UFC 0-1·1 KO loss
Pre-UFC11-0
Win method
6 KO/TKO4 Sub1 Dec
Avg opponent wins8.2
Wins finished10 of 11
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
No edge
Brener-1.10
Harrell+2.21
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
No data
BrenerOpponent data thin
HarrellToo few fights
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No data
Brener25%
HarrellToo few rounds
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
Brener
Brener
61Average
Harrell
32Low
Stats
Brener
Harrell
Striking
4.76SS Landed / min2.32
47%Str Acc50%
5.86SS Absorbed / min0.11
50%Str Def29%
0.33KD / fight0.00
Grappling
0.99TD / min0.00
76%TD Def0%
0.00Sub Att · /15m0.00
100%Sub Def—
Finish History
Brener
KO/TKO ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
67%
2/3
Stopped Rate (Losses)
33%
1/3
Harrell
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
—
—
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
1/1
Brener50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Harrell0% distance
Finish 100%Decision 0%
Brener 6 UFC fights·Harrell 1 UFC fight
Avg Fight Length
Brener
12.7min
Harrell
3.0min
Combined Distance Rate
43%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
BrenerWinHarrell
67%
KO
—
0%
Sub
—
33%
Dec
—
3 wins2 KO1 Dec
—
BrenerLossHarrell
33%
KO
100%
0%
Sub
0%
67%
Dec
0%
3 losses1 KO2 Dec
1 KO1 loss
CQ Finish Risk
Brener
to knock out
Harrell
49High
Harrell
to knock out
Brener
35Elevated
Brener
to submit
Harrell
10Minimal
Harrell
to submit
Brener
10Minimal
Recent Form
Brener
Stat
Harrell
4.84
4.76 career
↑0.08
SLpMOutput
—
6.47
5.86 career
↑0.61
SApMAbsorbed
—
6.88
5.93 career
↑0.95
TD AttAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Brener—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Esteban RibovicsLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Aug '25
118 SS (47%)·122 abs·0/9 td
L
Joel AlvarezLW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 3:36 · Aug '24
45 SS (46%)·95 abs·0/5 td·22s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Myktybek OrolbaiLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '24
48 SS (53%)·65 abs·3/6 td·5 td taken·175s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Kaynan KruschewskyCatch Weight Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 4:01 · Nov '23
16 SS (48%)·8 abs·1 kd
W
Guram KutateladzeLW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 3:17 · Jul '23
65 SS (49%)·85 abs·2/7 td·1 td taken·168s ctrl·1 kd
W
Zubaira TukhugovLW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Feb '23
69 SS (44%)·70 abs·0/3 td
View full fight log →
Harrell—Fight History
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·1 fight
L
Jacobe SmithWW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:01 · Feb '26
7 SS (50%)·33 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken
Pre-UFC Fights·11 fights
W
Bekmyrza Dosmatov13-2
KO/TKOR3Jan 2026
W
Kegan Gennrich9-4
DECAug 2025
W
Melvin Guillard32-22
SUBR1May 2025
W
Quinton Parks Jr.9-4
KO/TKOR2Mar 2025
W
Mike Roberts9-8
KO/TKOR3Jun 2023
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X