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Matchup Analysis·Light Heavyweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld6 / 11
←Miller vs GoffSutherland vs Lopes→
Red Corner

Diyar Nurgozhay

11-23 UFCLast5mo ago
Kickboxer
6'2"ht·74"reach·Southpawstance·29age
VS
Light Heavyweight205 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Bruno Lopes

“The Brazilian Cowboy”
14-33 UFCLast4mo ago
Balanced
Moderate Wear
6'2"ht·74"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNurgozhayDominant
DecisionNo data
GrapplingLopesClear edge
KO Adv.NurgozhayClear edge
Sub Adv.LopesSlight edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
1 signal
SOUTHPAW

Nurgozhay is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent. The stance mismatch gives Nurgozhay natural angle advantages at range.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Nurgozhay
Nurgozhay
+1.71
Lopes
-1.33
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Lopes
Nurgozhay
0.00
Lopes
0.39
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No data
Nurgozhay
Too few rounds
Lopes
Too few rounds
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Nurgozhay
Unrated0 KO losses0.67 KD/fight
Lopes
11
Low
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Nurgozhay4.52SLpM
+
SLpM2.88Lopes
7.4
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
NurgozhayOutput Holds Steady
LopesOutput Holds Steady
Finish History
Nurgozhay
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
0%
0/1
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
2/2
Lopes
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
0%
0/1
Stopped rate (losses)
100%
2/2
Edge & Exposure
Nurgozhay
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Lopes

No dominant edges or exposures identified from UFC record.

Opposition Quality
Nurgozhay1–2UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Lopes1–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
1–2
Record (3)
-3.8
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
NurgozhayLight HeavyweightLopes
87th
Striking Differential
18th
85th
Grappling Threat
62nd
—
Round Win Rate
—
74th
TD Defense
95th
71st
Durability
3rd
—
Finishing Rate
—

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Nurgozhay
Stat
Lopes
4.874.52 career
↑0.35
SLpMOutput
↓0.41
2.472.88 career
2.852.81 career
↑0.04
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.07
4.284.21 career
2.482.48 career
↑0.00
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑0.00
12.7312.73 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Nurgozhay33% distance
Finish 67%Decision 33%
Lopes33% distance
Finish 67%Decision 33%
Nurgozhay 3 UFC fights·Lopes 3 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Nurgozhay
8.1min
Lopes
8.6min
Combined Distance Rate
33%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
NurgozhayTO KNOCK OUTLopes
39
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins0
Total UFC wins1
Lopes's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses2
LopesTO KNOCK OUTNurgozhay
26
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins0
Total UFC wins1
Nurgozhay's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses2
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
NurgozhayTO SUBMITLopes
10
Minimal
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins1
Lopes's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses2
LopesTO SUBMITNurgozhay
22
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins1
Nurgozhay's Sub Losses
Sub losses2
Total UFC losses2
NurgozhayWin MethodLopes
0%
KO / TKO
0%
0%
Submission
0%
100%
Decision
100%
1 UFC win · 1 Dec1 UFC win · 1 Dec
Nurgozhay
Loss Method
Lopes
0%
KO / TKO
100%
100%
Submission
0%
0%
Decision
0%
2 UFC losses · 2 Sub2 UFC losses · 2 KO
Nurgozhay2 stoppages · 2 Sub
R1
1
R2
1
R3
0
R1R2R3
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubUran SatybaldievR1 · 2:45
LSubBrendson RibeiroR2 · 1:28
Lopes2 stoppages · 2 KO
R1
1
R2
1
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Loss
All stoppages
LKONavajo StirlingR2 · 4:05
LKODustin JacobyR1 · 1:50
Historical Context
Nurgozhay — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
W
Rafael TobiasLHW
U-DEC
R3
Mar '26
94 SS (66%)·39 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·88s ctrl
L
Uran SatybaldievLHW
SUB
R12:45
Aug '25
7 SS (64%)·2 abs·1/1 td·18s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Brendson RibeiroLHW
SUB
R21:28
Mar '25
17 SS (44%)·28 abs·2/2 td·49s ctrl·1 kd taken
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WBartosz Szewczyk
DWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2024
View full fight log →
Lopes — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
L
Navajo StirlingLHW
KO/TKO
R24:05
Mar '26
28 SS (44%)·63 abs·0/8 td·60s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Dustin JacobyVeteranLHW
KO/TKO
R11:50
May '25
3 SS (33%)·17 abs·1 kd taken
W
Magomed GadzhiyasulovLHW
U-DEC
R3
Jan '25
33 SS (47%)·31 abs·5/14 td·559s ctrl
Tracked Fights·2 fights
WMikheil Sazhiniani
DWCSKO/TKOR2Aug 2024
LBrendson Ribeiro
DWCSKO/TKOR1Sep 2023
View full fight log →
Matchup·LHW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
6/11←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Diyar Nurgozhay

11-23 UFC5mo ago
6'2"ht74"reachSouthpaw29 yrs
VS·LHW·3R
Blue Corner

Bruno Lopes

“The Brazilian Cowboy”
14-33 UFC4mo ago
6'2"ht74"reachOrthodox33 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNurgozhayDominant
DecisionNo data
GrapplingLopesClear edge
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.NurgozhayClear edge
Sub Adv.LopesSlight edge
Signals
1
SOUTHPAWNurgozhay is a southpaw striker against an orthodox opponent.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Nurgozhay
Nurgozhay+1.71
Lopes-1.33
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Lopes
Nurgozhay0.00
Lopes0.39
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No data
NurgozhayToo few rounds
LopesToo few rounds
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Nurgozhay
Unrated0 KO losses0.67 KD/fight
Lopes
11Low
Stats
Nurgozhay
Lopes
Striking
4.52SS Landed / min2.88
59%Str Acc43%
2.81SS Absorbed / min4.21
61%Str Def54%
0.00KD / fight0.00
Grappling
1.37TD / min1.93
80%TD Def100%
0.00Sub Att · /15m0.00
50%Sub Def—
Finish History
Nurgozhay
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
0%
0/1
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
2/2
Lopes
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
0%
0/1
Stopped Rate (Losses)
100%
2/2
Nurgozhay33% distance
Finish 67%Decision 33%
Lopes33% distance
Finish 67%Decision 33%
Nurgozhay 3 UFC fights·Lopes 3 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Nurgozhay
8.1min
Lopes
8.6min
Combined Distance Rate
33%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
NurgozhayWinLopes
0%
KO
0%
0%
Sub
0%
100%
Dec
100%
1 wins1 Dec
1 Dec1 wins
NurgozhayLossLopes
0%
KO
100%
100%
Sub
0%
0%
Dec
0%
2 losses2 Sub
2 KO2 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Nurgozhay
to knock out
Lopes
39Elevated
Lopes
to knock out
Nurgozhay
26Elevated
Nurgozhay
to submit
Lopes
10Minimal
Lopes
to submit
Nurgozhay
22Low
Recent Form
Nurgozhay
Stat
Lopes
4.87
4.52 career
↑0.35
SLpMOutput
↓0.41
2.47
2.88 career
2.85
2.81 career
↑0.04
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.07
4.28
4.21 career
2.48
2.48 career
↑0.00
TD AttAtt/15m
↑0.00
12.73
12.73 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Nurgozhay—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
W
Rafael TobiasLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '26
94 SS (66%)·39 abs·0/1 td·2 td taken·88s ctrl
L
Uran SatybaldievLHW Bout
SUB · R1 · 2:45 · Aug '25
7 SS (64%)·2 abs·1/1 td·18s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Brendson RibeiroLHW Bout
SUB · R2 · 1:28 · Mar '25
17 SS (44%)·28 abs·2/2 td·49s ctrl·1 kd taken
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WBartosz Szewczyk
DWCSKO/TKOR2Oct 2024
View full fight log →
Lopes—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
L
Navajo StirlingLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:05 · Mar '26
28 SS (44%)·63 abs·0/8 td·60s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Dustin JacobyVeteranLHW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:50 · May '25
3 SS (33%)·17 abs·1 kd taken
W
Magomed GadzhiyasulovLHW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25
33 SS (47%)·31 abs·5/14 td·559s ctrl
Tracked Fights·2 fights
WMikheil Sazhiniani
DWCSKO/TKOR2Aug 2024
LBrendson Ribeiro
DWCSKO/TKOR1Sep 2023
View full fight log →
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CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X