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Matchup Analysis·Women's Flyweight
↑UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 212 / 13
←Shahbazyan vs FerreiraChikadze vs Brito→
Red Corner

Casey O'Neill

“King”
11-28 UFCLast6mo ago
Pressure Fighter
High Variance
5'6"ht·69"+2"reach·Orthodoxstance·28age
VS
Women's Flyweight125 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Eduarda Moura

“Ronda”
12-25 UFCLast7mo ago
Wrestler
Goes Long
5'6"ht·67"reach·Orthodoxstance·32age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingO'NeillDominant
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingMouraDominant
KO Adv.O'NeillClear edge
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityNo data
CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
O'Neill
O'Neill
+2.36
Moura
+0.07
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Moura
O'Neill
0.28
Moura
1.07
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
O'Neill
63%
Moura
57%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
O'Neill
94
Ironclad
Moura
Unrated0 KO losses0.20 KD/fight
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Extreme
O'Neill7.89SLpM
+
SLpM2.57Moura
10.5
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
O'Neill
O'NeillOutput Builds Late+31% R1→R3
MouraOutput Holds Steady-20% R1→R3
Finish History
O'Neill
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
67%
4/6
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
1/2
Moura
KO/TKO ×1
Finish rate (wins)
33%
1/3
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/2
Edge & Exposure
O'Neill
EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Moura
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

Opposition Quality
O'Neill6–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
3–0
Record (3)
+3.1
Str Diff/Min
67%
Finish (W)
Moura3–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
1–2
Record (3)
-0.7
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
O'NeillWomen's FlyweightMoura
95th
Striking Differential
50th
50th
Grappling Threat
92nd
79th
Round Win Rate
61st
72nd
TD Defense
88th
73rd
Durability
44th
82nd
Finishing Rate
38th
Recent Form
O'Neill
Stat
Moura
5.687.89 career
⚠↓2.21
SLpMOutput
↓0.30
2.272.57 career
4.625.53 career
↓0.91
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.23
2.732.50 career
2.454.02 career
⚠↓1.57
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓4.38
6.3310.71 career
0.610.70 career
↓0.09
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Striking
O'NeillMoura6 fights
Div avg
Sig. Strikes / Min
7.89
2.57
Str. Accuracy
52%
37%
Sig. Absorbed / min
5.53
2.50
Str. Defense
57%
58%
CQ KO Power
0.15
—
O'NeillStrike DistributionMoura
By Target
77%
Head
87%
14%
Body
6%
10%
Leg
7%
By Position
81%
Distance
61%
5%
Clinch
5%
14%
Ground
34%
Sig Strikes
O'Neill
85avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
10.7 min
Goes Dist
38%
Moura
35avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
13.4 min
Goes Dist
80%
Historical Context
O'Neill — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Gabriella FernandesW.FLY
KO/TKO
R13:11
Mar '26
25 SS (38%)·8 abs·1 kd
W
Luana SantosW.FLY
U-DEC
R3
Aug '24
83 SS (43%)·41 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken·141s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Ariane da SilvaW.FLY
SUB
R21:18
Dec '23
31 SS (42%)·64 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken·20s ctrl
L
Jennifer MaiaW.FLY
U-DEC
R3
Mar '23
137 SS (52%)·145 abs·0/1 td
W
Roxanne ModafferiW.FLY
S-DEC
R3
Feb '22
229 SS (58%)·120 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken
W
Antonina ShevchenkoW.FLY
KO/TKO
R24:47
Oct '21
52 SS (47%)·40 abs·3/8 td·339s ctrl
View full fight log →
Moura — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
L
Wang CongCatch Weight
U-DEC
R3
Feb '26
12 SS (35%)·39 abs·3/12 td·486s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att
W
Lauren MurphyVeteranW.FLY
U-DEC
R3
Jul '25
64 SS (27%)·38 abs·2/3 td·2 td taken·182s ctrl
W
Veronica HardyW.FLY
U-DEC
R3
Nov '24
26 SS (34%)·46 abs·3/4 td·253s ctrl
L
Denise GomesW.SW
S-DEC
R3
Jun '24
18 SS (38%)·50 abs·5/26 td·396s ctrl
W
Montserrat Conejo RuizW.SW
KO/TKO
R22:14
Nov '23
57 SS (74%)·5 abs·3/3 td·357s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WJanaina Silva
DWCSSUBR1Aug 2023
View full fight log →
Matchup·W. FLY·3R
↑UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
12/13←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Casey O'Neill

“King”
11-28 UFC6mo ago
5'6"ht69"+2"reachOrthodox28 yrs
VS·W. FLY·3R
Blue Corner

Eduarda Moura

“Ronda”
12-25 UFC7mo ago
5'6"ht67"reachOrthodox32 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingO'NeillDominant
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingMouraDominant
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.O'NeillClear edge
Sub Adv.No edge
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
O'Neill
O'Neill+2.36
Moura+0.07
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Moura
O'Neill0.28
Moura1.07
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
O'Neill63%
Moura57%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
O'Neill
94Ironclad
Moura
Unrated0 KO losses0.20 KD/fight
Stats
O'Neill
Moura
Striking
7.89SS Landed / min2.57
52%Str Acc37%
5.53SS Absorbed / min2.50
57%Str Def58%
0.13KD / fight0.00
Grappling
1.40TD / min3.58
70%TD Def80%
0.70Sub Att · /15m0.40
0%Sub Def100%
Finish History
O'Neill
KO/TKO ×3Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
67%
4/6
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
1/2
Moura
KO/TKO ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
33%
1/3
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/2
O'Neill38% distance
Finish 62%Decision 38%
Moura80% distance
Finish 20%Decision 80%
O'Neill 8 UFC fights·Moura 5 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
O'Neill
10.7min
Moura
13.4min
Combined Distance Rate
54%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
O'NeillWinMoura
50%
KO
33%
17%
Sub
0%
33%
Dec
67%
6 wins3 KO1 Sub2 Dec
2 Dec1 KO3 wins
O'NeillLossMoura
0%
KO
0%
50%
Sub
0%
50%
Dec
100%
2 losses1 Sub1 Dec
2 Dec2 losses
CQ Finish Risk
O'Neill
to knock out
Moura
36Elevated
Moura
to knock out
O'Neill
20Low
O'Neill
to submit
Moura
21Low
Moura
to submit
O'Neill
27Elevated
Recent Form
O'Neill
Stat
Moura
5.68
7.89 career
↓2.21
SLpMOutput
↓0.30
2.27
2.57 career
4.62
5.53 career
↓0.91
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.23
2.73
2.50 career
2.45
4.02 career
↓1.57
TD AttAtt/15m
↓4.38
6.33
10.71 career
0.61
0.70 career
↓0.09
SubAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
O'Neill—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Gabriella FernandesW. FLY Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 3:11 · Mar '26
25 SS (38%)·8 abs·1 kd
W
Luana SantosW. FLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Aug '24
83 SS (43%)·41 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken·141s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Ariane da SilvaW. FLY Bout
SUB · R2 · 1:18 · Dec '23
31 SS (42%)·64 abs·0/2 td·1 td taken·20s ctrl
L
Jennifer MaiaW. FLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '23
137 SS (52%)·145 abs·0/1 td
W
Roxanne ModafferiW. FLY Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Feb '22
229 SS (58%)·120 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken
W
Antonina ShevchenkoW. FLY Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:47 · Oct '21
52 SS (47%)·40 abs·3/8 td·339s ctrl
View full fight log →
Moura—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
L
Wang CongCatch Weight Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Feb '26
12 SS (35%)·39 abs·3/12 td·486s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att
W
Lauren MurphyVeteranW. FLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jul '25
64 SS (27%)·38 abs·2/3 td·2 td taken·182s ctrl
W
Veronica HardyW. FLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '24
26 SS (34%)·46 abs·3/4 td·253s ctrl
L
Denise GomesW. SW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
18 SS (38%)·50 abs·5/26 td·396s ctrl
W
Montserrat Conejo RuizW. SW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 2:14 · Nov '23
57 SS (74%)·5 abs·3/3 td·357s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WJanaina Silva
DWCSSUBR1Aug 2023
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X