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Matchup Analysis·Flyweight Bout
↑UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi9 / 13
←Diniz vs MontanhaBolanos vs Aswell→
Red Corner

Allan Nascimento

“Puro Osso”
22-65 UFCLast7mo ago
Kickboxer
Hot Streak
5'8"+3"ht·69"+5"reach·Orthodoxstance·34age
VS
Flyweight125 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Mitch Raposo

10-33 UFCLast8mo ago
Balanced
5'5"ht·64"reach·Switchstance·277yrage
CQ
EdgesDecision Likely
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNascimentoClear edge
DecisionNascimentoClear edge
GrapplingRaposoDominant
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.NascimentoClear edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
2 signals
REACH CLIFF

Nascimento has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Nascimento's reach is a structural advantage.

AGE GAP

Nascimento is 7 years older than Raposo.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Nascimento
Nascimento
+0.53
Raposo
-0.92
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Raposo
Nascimento
0.49
Raposo
1.60
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Nascimento
Nascimento
58%
Raposo
22%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Nascimento
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Raposo
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Low
Nascimento3.06SLpM
+
SLpM1.73Raposo
4.8
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Raposo
NascimentoOutput Drops Late-66% R1→R3
RaposoOutput Builds Late+75% R1→R3
Finish History
Nascimento
Sub ×2
Finish rate (wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/1
Raposo
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
0%
0/1
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/2
Edge & Exposure
Nascimento
EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

ExposureTakedown Vulnerable

Division-low TD defense rate. Opponents with an active takedown game have a clear structural path.

Raposo

No dominant edges or exposures identified from UFC record.

Opposition Quality
Nascimento4–1UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
3–1
Record (4)
+0.5
Str Diff/Min
33%
Finish (W)
Raposo1–2UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Division Percentile Ranks
NascimentoFlyweightRaposo
70th
Striking Differential
20th
33rd
Grappling Threat
72nd
66th
Round Win Rate
6th
10th
TD Defense
41st
80th
Durability
57th
43rd
Finishing Rate
—

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Nascimento
Stat
Raposo
2.643.06 career
↓0.42
SLpMOutput
↓0.15
1.581.73 career
2.792.53 career
↑0.26
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.09
2.562.65 career
6.234.25 career
↑1.98
TD AttAttempts/15m
↑0.00
7.007.00 career
1.701.10 career
↑0.60
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Striking
Nascimento6 fightsRaposo4 fights
Div avg
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.06
1.73
Str. Accuracy
55%
36%
Sig. Absorbed / min
2.53
2.65
Str. Defense
52%
61%
NascimentoStrike DistributionRaposo
By Target
56%
Head
70%
15%
Body
22%
29%
Leg
9%
By Position
80%
Distance
96%
6%
Clinch
1%
14%
Ground
3%
Sig Strikes
Nascimento
23avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
11.3 min
Goes Dist
60%
Raposo
24avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
15.0 min
Goes Dist
100%
Historical Context
Nascimento — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
W
Cody DurdenCatch Weight
SUB
R23:13
Nov '25
52 SS (45%)·57 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·21s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Jafel FilhoFLY
U-DEC
R3
May '25
12 SS (50%)·14 abs·1/6 td·4 td taken·423s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Carlos HernandezFLY
SUB
R13:16
Jan '23
6 SS (55%)·3 abs·2/4 td·143s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Jake HadleyFLY
U-DEC
R3
May '22
19 SS (37%)·8 abs·2/4 td·567s ctrl
L
Tagir UlanbekovFLY
S-DEC
R3
Oct '21
25 SS (68%)·18 abs·0/1 td·4 td taken·16s ctrl·2 sub att
Tracked Fights·1 fight
LRaulian Paiva
DWCSS-DECR3Aug 2018
View full fight log →
Raposo — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
W
Azat MaksumFLY
U-DEC
R3
Oct '25
30 SS (45%)·19 abs·7 td taken·49s ctrl
L
SumudaerjiFLY
S-DEC
R3
Apr '25
9 SS (35%)·45 abs·6/19 td·258s ctrl
L
Andre LimaFLY
S-DEC
R3
Jun '24
32 SS (42%)·51 abs·1/2 td·9s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
LJake Hadley
DWCSSUBR2Oct 2021
View full fight log →
Matchup·FLY·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
9/13←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Allan Nascimento

“Puro Osso”
22-65 UFC7mo ago
5'8"+3"ht69"+5"reachOrthodox34 yrs
VS·FLY·3R
Blue Corner

Mitch Raposo

10-33 UFC8mo ago
5'5"ht64"reachSwitch27 yrs
CQ
Edges
Decision Likely
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNascimentoClear edge
DecisionNascimentoClear edge
GrapplingRaposoDominant
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.NascimentoClear edge
Signals
2
REACH CLIFFNascimento has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Nascimento's reach is a structural advantage.
AGE GAPNascimento is 7 years older than Raposo.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Nascimento
Nascimento+0.53
Raposo-0.92
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Raposo
Nascimento0.49
Raposo1.60
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Nascimento
Nascimento58%
Raposo22%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Nascimento
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Raposo
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Stats
Nascimento
Raposo
Striking
3.06SS Landed / min1.73
55%Str Acc36%
2.53SS Absorbed / min2.65
52%Str Def61%
0.00KD / fight0.00
Grappling
1.26TD / min2.54
37%TD Def61%
1.10Sub Att · /15m0.00
100%Sub Def—
Finish History
Nascimento
Sub ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/1
Raposo
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
0%
0/1
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/2
Nascimento60% distance
Finish 40%Decision 60%
Raposo100% distance
Finish 0%Decision 100%
Nascimento 5 UFC fights·Raposo 3 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Nascimento
11.3min
Raposo
15.0min
Combined Distance Rate
75%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
NascimentoWinRaposo
0%
KO
0%
50%
Sub
0%
50%
Dec
100%
4 wins2 Sub2 Dec
1 Dec1 wins
NascimentoLossRaposo
0%
KO
0%
0%
Sub
0%
100%
Dec
100%
1 loss1 Dec
2 Dec2 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Nascimento
to knock out
Raposo
19Low
Raposo
to knock out
Nascimento
9Minimal
Nascimento
to submit
Raposo
32Elevated
Raposo
to submit
Nascimento
9Minimal
Recent Form
Nascimento
Stat
Raposo
2.64
3.06 career
↓0.42
SLpMOutput
↓0.15
1.58
1.73 career
2.79
2.53 career
↑0.26
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.09
2.56
2.65 career
6.23
4.25 career
↑1.98
TD AttAtt/15m
↑0.00
7.00
7.00 career
1.70
1.10 career
↑0.60
SubAtt/15m
—
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Nascimento—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
W
Cody DurdenCatch Weight Bout
SUB · R2 · 3:13 · Nov '25
52 SS (45%)·57 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·21s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Jafel FilhoFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '25
12 SS (50%)·14 abs·1/6 td·4 td taken·423s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Carlos HernandezFLY Bout
SUB · R1 · 3:16 · Jan '23
6 SS (55%)·3 abs·2/4 td·143s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Jake HadleyFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '22
19 SS (37%)·8 abs·2/4 td·567s ctrl
L
Tagir UlanbekovFLY Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Oct '21
25 SS (68%)·18 abs·0/1 td·4 td taken·16s ctrl·2 sub att
Tracked Fights·1 fight
LRaulian Paiva
DWCSS-DECR3Aug 2018
View full fight log →
Raposo—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
W
Azat MaksumFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '25
30 SS (45%)·19 abs·7 td taken·49s ctrl
L
SumudaerjiFLY Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Apr '25
9 SS (35%)·45 abs·6/19 td·258s ctrl
L
Andre LimaFLY Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
32 SS (42%)·51 abs·1/2 td·9s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
LJake Hadley
DWCSSUBR2Oct 2021
View full fight log →
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CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X