Fighter Profile›Flyweight

Matheus Nicolau

19-6-111 UFC

Balanced

Form

· 3L

Layoff Risk

Title Fight

High Wear

5'6"ht·66"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age

Last fightLAsu Almabayev·U-DEC·R3·1.5yr ago

Fighter Context

7–4UFC·

1KO

1Sub

5Dec

11.2min/fight

123UFC min

vs. Winning-Record Opps

4–4(8 fights)

25%finish rate

-0.2str diff/min

CQ Key Stats

Striking Differential

+0.33

Neutral

62%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat

0.175

Average

55%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability

Low

10%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate

59%

Strong

66%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Nicolau

Distance Striker

Body Attacker

Flyweight avg

Sig. Strikes / Min3.31

Str. Accuracy51%

408UFC landed/786attempted

Sig. Absorbed / min

−0.7 vs avg2.98

Str. Defense65%

KD Rate / fight0.73

8UFC knockdowns

KD Absorbed / fight0.46

CQ KO Power

Elite95%ile1.96

Strike Distribution

By Target

Head

53%

Body

34%

Leg

14%

By Position

Distance87%

Clinch1%

Ground12%

Sig. Strikes by Round

	Round 111 rounds	Round 29 rounds	Round 37 rounds
Avg. Landed	13	19	14
Avg. Absorbed	11	18	13
Avg. Net	+2	+1	+2

Grappling

Nicolau

Control Wrestler

·98s ctrlAverage Control

Flyweight avg

Offense

TD Landed / 15 Min1.22

TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY2.80

TD Accuracy43%

10UFC landed/23attempted

Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.80

1UFC wins/7attempted

Defense

Elite TD Def

TD Defense90%

19UFC defended/21opp. attempts

Sub Defense

Not Sub Tested

Finishing

Finish Rate

29%

Decision Fighter

div avg 45%

How They Lose

4UFC losses

Win Breakdown

KO / TKO1 / 7

Submission1 / 7

Decision5 / 7

KD → Finish

1/4Low

Loss Breakdown

KO / TKO3 / 4

Submission0 / 4

Decision1 / 4

Loss Pattern

3 of 4 losses by finish in R1–R2

Finish Round Distribution

KO/TKO W

KO/TKO L

SUB W

Cards & Decisions

Recovery Rate

43%

3 of 7 rounds won following a lost round

Decision Margin

1.4pts

W5 dec

—

L1 dec

field avg 1.95 pts

Decision Types

4UD

2SD

0MD

33%split rate

Career Trajectory

Win

Loss

D/NC

Elite opp (15+ wins)

Veteran opp (8+ wins)

Layoff

Div. change

sig. strikes trending down. Averaging 19 less in second half of career

11 UFC fights · hover for details · colored line = 3-fight rolling avg

Pace & Cardio

Output

Absorbed

Diff

R1n=11

R2n=9

R3n=7

Outputsig strikes / min

2.7

4.4

3.0

Absorbedsig strikes / min

2.4

4.1

2.6

Diff

+0.3

Per-round averages across career · partial final rounds included at actual elapsed time · rounds below 5 min. career total suppressed · dashed lines = division avg

Last 8 Fights — Trend

KD Abs

▼Absorbed-36%L3

Last 8 UFC fights · Absorbed & Strike Diff = index vs career avg (1.0 = avg, 0 = breakeven) · Orange dots = KDs absorbed

Nicolau — 11 UFC Fights

Result

Method

11 fights

Asu Almabayev

U-DEC R3Oct '24

-6

·16 SS (38%)·22 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 kd taken·1 sub att

Alex Perez

TITLE

KO/TKO R2 · 2:16Apr '24

-6

·22 SS (40%)·28 abs·1 kd taken

Brandon Royval

KO/TKO R1 · 2:09Apr '23

-11

·2 SS (40%)·13 abs·1 kd taken

Matt Schnell

KO/TKO R2 · 1:44Dec '22

+12

·32 SS (76%)·20 abs·1/1 td·47s ctrl·2 kd landed

David Dvorak

U-DEC R3Mar '22

-3

·36 SS (44%)·39 abs·0/2 td·48s ctrl·1 kd landed

Tim Elliott

U-DEC R3Oct '21

-6

·64 SS (59%)·70 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·128s ctrl

Manel Kape

S-DEC R3Mar '21

-6

·55 SS (54%)·61 abs·2/9 td·151s ctrl·1 sub att

↵ 32mo layoff

Dustin Ortiz

KO/TKO R1 · 3:49Jul '18

-1

·7 SS (44%)·8 abs·1 kd taken

Louis Smolka

U-DEC R3Dec '17

+38

·87 SS (51%)·49 abs·3/4 td·259s ctrl·3 kd landed·2 sub att

↵ 17mo layoff

John Moraga

S-DEC R3Jul '16

+10

·41 SS (48%)·31 abs·0/1 td·43s ctrl

All Fighters

Flyweight

Matheus Nicolau

19-6-111 UFC

Form

5'6"ht·66"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age

Last fightLAsu Almabayev·U-DEC·1.5yr ago

Fighter Context

7–4UFC·

1KO

1Sub

5Dec

11.2min/fight

123UFC min

vs. Winning Record4–4

CQ Key Stats

Str. Differential

+0.33

62%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat

0.175

55%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability

10%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate

59%

66%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Nicolau

Flyweight avg

Distance StrikerBody Attacker

Sig. Strikes / Min3.31

Str. Accuracy51%

408UFC landed/786attempted

Sig. Absorbed / Min

−0.7 vs avg2.98

Str. Defense65%

KD Rate / Fight0.73

8UFC knockdowns

KD Absorbed / Fight0.46

CQ KO Power

Elite95%ile1.96

Strike Distribution

By Target

Head

53%

Body

34%

Leg

14%

By Position

Dist87%

Clinch1%

Ground12%

Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)

	R1 n=11	R2 n=9	R3 n=7
Landed	13	19	14
Absorbed	11	18	13
Net	+2	+1	+2

Grappling

Nicolau

Flyweight avg

Control Wrestler

98s ctrlAverage Control

Offense

TD Landed / 15 Min1.22

TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY2.80

TD Accuracy43%

10UFC landed/23attempted

Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.80

1UFC wins/7attempted

Defense

Elite TD Def

TD Defense90%

19UFC defended/21opp. attempts

Finishing

Finish Rate

29%

Decision Fighter

Win Methods

1KO/TKO

1Sub

5Dec

Loss Methods

3KO/TKO

0Sub

1Dec

Finish Round Distribution

KO (W)

KO (L)

Sub (W)

Cards & Decisions

Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.

43%3 of 7 rounds

Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.

1.4pts

W5 dec

—more needed

L1 dec

field avg 1.95 pts

Decision Types

4UD

2SD

0MD

33%split rate

Career Trajectory chart available on desktop.

Pace & Cardio

Output

Absorbed

Diff

R1n=11

R2n=9

R3n=7

Outputsig strikes / min

2.7

4.4

3.0

Absorbedsig strikes / min

2.4

4.1

2.6

Diff

+0.3

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Nicolau — UFC Fight Log

Asu Almabayev

U-DEC·R3·Oct '24

16 SS (38%)·22 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 kd taken·1 sub

Alex PerezTITLE

KO/TKO·R2·Apr '24

22 SS (40%)·28 abs·1 kd taken

Brandon Royval

KO/TKO·R1·Apr '23

2 SS (40%)·13 abs·1 kd taken

Matt Schnell

KO/TKO·R2·Dec '22

32 SS (76%)·20 abs·1/1 td·47s ctrl·2 kd

David Dvorak

U-DEC·R3·Mar '22

36 SS (44%)·39 abs·0/2 td·48s ctrl·1 kd

Tim Elliott

U-DEC·R3·Oct '21

64 SS (59%)·70 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·128s ctrl

Manel Kape

S-DEC·R3·Mar '21

55 SS (54%)·61 abs·2/9 td·151s ctrl·1 sub

Dustin Ortiz

KO/TKO·R1·Jul '18

7 SS (44%)·8 abs·1 kd taken

Round 111 rounds

Round 29 rounds

Round 37 rounds

Avg. Landed

Avg. Absorbed

Avg. Net

n=11

n=9

n=7

Landed

Absorbed

Net