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Matchup Analysis·Lightweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov12 / 12
←Tuchalov vs Ribeiro→
Red Corner

Nurullo Aliev

“Tajik Eagle”
11-03 UFCLast8mo ago
Grappler
Rising
5'10"ht·72"reach·Orthodoxstance·258yrage
VS
Lightweight155 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Mike Davis

“Beast Boy”
12-37 UFCLast1.0yr ago
Complete Fighter
6'0"+2"ht·72"reach·Orthodoxstance·33age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingAlievClear edge
DecisionAlievClear edge
GrapplingAlievClear edge
KO Adv.DavisDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
1 signal
AGE GAP

Davis is 8 years older than Aliev.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Aliev
Aliev
+1.09
Davis
-0.50
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Aliev
Aliev
0.85
Davis
0.48
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Aliev
Aliev
89%
Davis
61%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Aliev
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Davis
92
Ironclad
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Aliev2.72SLpM
+
SLpM4.73Davis
7.5
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Aliev
AlievOutput Builds Late+53% R1→R3
DavisOutput Holds Steady-7% R1→R3
Finish History
Aliev
No finishes
Finish rate (wins)
0%
0/3
Stopped rate (losses)
—
—
Davis
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped rate (losses)
50%
1/2
Edge & Exposure
Aliev
EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Davis
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

Opposition Quality
Aliev3–0UFC

Too few fights to rate.

Davis5–2UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–2
Record (4)
-1.4
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
AlievLightweightDavis
77th
Striking Differential
29th
74th
Grappling Threat
79th
99th
Round Win Rate
69th
82nd
TD Defense
33rd
73rd
Durability
90th
—
Finishing Rate
59th

— Insufficient divisional sample to rank this fighter in the current weight class.

Recent Form
Aliev
Stat
Davis
2.332.72 career
↓0.39
SLpMOutput
⚠↓2.46
2.274.73 career
1.731.63 career
↑0.10
SApMAbsorbed
↓2.18
3.055.23 career
3.673.67 career
↑0.00
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.80
4.865.66 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↑1.14
1.940.80 career
Stat Breakdown
Grappling
Aliev4 fightsDavis
Div avg
TD Landed / 15 Min
2.12
2.40
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY
3.67
5.66
TD Accuracy
43%
44%
TD Defense
80%
60%
Sub Attempts / 15 Min
0.30
0.80
Ctrl Time / Fight
402s
183s
Threat Matrix
AlievDavis
0.85Adj. TD Threat
0.48
0.30Sub Att / 15min0.80
Takedowns
Aliev
2avg landed / fight
Davis
2.3avg landed / fight
UFC Grappling Totals
TD offense
6/ 11
landed / att
TD defense
8/ 10
stopped / opp att
TD offense
16/ 32
landed / att
TD defense
13/ 22
stopped / opp att
Sub offense
0/ 1
wins / att
Sub defense
3/ 3
escaped / threatened
Sub offense
1/ 5
wins / att
Sub defense
0/ 1
escaped / threatened
Aliev
Davis
Historical Context
Aliev — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
W
Shem RockLW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '25
51 SS (44%)·44 abs·1/5 td·1 td taken·224s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Joe SoleckiLW
U-DEC
R3
Jan '25
35 SS (40%)·28 abs·2/2 td·1 td taken·493s ctrl
W
Rafael AlvesLW
M-DEC
R3
Feb '23
19 SS (42%)·6 abs·3/4 td·651s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WJosh Wick
DWCSKO/TKOR1Oct 2022
View full fight log →
Davis — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·7 fights
W
Mitch RamirezLW
KO/TKO
R24:08
Jul '25
47 SS (61%)·51 abs·1/2 td·262s ctrl·1 kd·2 sub att
L
Fares ZiamLW
U-DEC
R3
Feb '25
20 SS (57%)·35 abs·1/8 td·4 td taken·239s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Natan LevyLW
SUB
R21:43
Mar '24
3 SS (43%)·8 abs·1 td taken·311s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Viacheslav BorshchevLW
U-DEC
R3
Oct '22
65 SS (49%)·63 abs·9/11 td·482s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Mason JonesLW
U-DEC
R3
Jan '21
108 SS (52%)·117 abs·3/9 td·1 td taken·50s ctrl
W
Thomas GiffordLW
KO/TKO
R34:45
Oct '19
139 SS (63%)·88 abs·2/2 td·116s ctrl·2 kd
View full fight log →
Matchup·LW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
12/12←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Nurullo Aliev

“Tajik Eagle”
11-03 UFC8mo ago
5'10"ht72"reachOrthodox25 yrs
VS·LW·3R
Blue Corner

Mike Davis

“Beast Boy”
12-37 UFC1.0yr ago
6'0"+2"ht72"reachOrthodox33 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingAlievClear edge
DecisionAlievClear edge
GrapplingAlievClear edge
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.DavisDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
Signals
1
AGE GAPDavis is 8 years older than Aliev.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Aliev
Aliev+1.09
Davis-0.50
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Aliev
Aliev0.85
Davis0.48
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Aliev
Aliev89%
Davis61%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Aliev
Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight
Davis
92Ironclad
Stats
Aliev
Davis
Striking
2.72SS Landed / min4.73
44%Str Acc53%
1.63SS Absorbed / min5.23
58%Str Def54%
0.00KD / fight0.57
Grappling
2.12TD / min2.40
80%TD Def60%
0.30Sub Att · /15m0.80
100%Sub Def0%
Finish History
Aliev
No finishes
Finish Rate (Wins)
0%
0/3
Stopped Rate (Losses)
—
—
Davis
KO/TKO ×2Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
60%
3/5
Stopped Rate (Losses)
50%
1/2
Aliev100% distance
Finish 0%Decision 100%
Davis43% distance
Finish 57%Decision 43%
Aliev 3 UFC fights·Davis 7 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Aliev
15.0min
Davis
12.1min
Combined Distance Rate
60%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
AlievWinDavis
0%
KO
40%
0%
Sub
20%
100%
Dec
40%
3 wins3 Dec
2 Dec1 Sub2 KO5 wins
AlievLossDavis
—
KO
0%
—
Sub
50%
—
Dec
50%
—
1 Dec1 Sub2 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Aliev
to knock out
Davis
15Low
Davis
to knock out
Aliev
38Elevated
Aliev
to submit
Davis
28Elevated
Davis
to submit
Aliev
26Elevated
Recent Form
Aliev
Stat
Davis
2.33
2.72 career
↓0.39
SLpMOutput
↓2.46
2.27
4.73 career
1.73
1.63 career
↑0.10
SApMAbsorbed
↓2.18
3.05
5.23 career
3.67
3.67 career
↑0.00
TD AttAtt/15m
↓0.80
4.86
5.66 career
—
SubAtt/15m
↑1.14
1.94
0.80 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Aliev—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·3 fights
W
Shem RockLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '25
51 SS (44%)·44 abs·1/5 td·1 td taken·224s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Joe SoleckiLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25
35 SS (40%)·28 abs·2/2 td·1 td taken·493s ctrl
W
Rafael AlvesLW Bout
M-DEC · R3 · Feb '23
19 SS (42%)·6 abs·3/4 td·651s ctrl
Tracked Fights·1 fight
WJosh Wick
DWCSKO/TKOR1Oct 2022
View full fight log →
Davis—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·7 fights
W
Mitch RamirezLW Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:08 · Jul '25
47 SS (61%)·51 abs·1/2 td·262s ctrl·1 kd·2 sub att
L
Fares ZiamLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Feb '25
20 SS (57%)·35 abs·1/8 td·4 td taken·239s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Natan LevyLW Bout
SUB · R2 · 1:43 · Mar '24
3 SS (43%)·8 abs·1 td taken·311s ctrl·1 kd·1 sub att
W
Viacheslav BorshchevLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '22
65 SS (49%)·63 abs·9/11 td·482s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Mason JonesLW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jan '21
108 SS (52%)·117 abs·3/9 td·1 td taken·50s ctrl
W
Thomas GiffordLW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 4:45 · Oct '19
139 SS (63%)·88 abs·2/2 td·116s ctrl·2 kd
View full fight log →
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X