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Matchup Analysis·Bantamweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos10 / 11
←Dumont vs PerezDemopoulos vs Jauregui→
Red Corner

John Castaneda

“Sexi Mexi”
21-8-19 UFCLast5mo ago
Kickboxer
Declining
5'6"ht·71"+5"reach·Switchstance·34age
VS
Bantamweight135 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Alatengheili

“The Mongolian Knight”
17-10-29 UFCLast1.4yr ago
Balanced
Declining
Goes Long
Moderate Wear
5'5"ht·66"reach·Orthodoxstance·34age
CQ
EdgesDecision Likely
High KO Variance
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingCastanedaDominant
DecisionCastanedaClear edge
GrapplingNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.CastanedaSlight edge
DurabilityNo edge
Signals
4 signals
CQ
VOLATILITYBoth
Both fighters absorb at a high rate

KO probability runs above the divisional baseline in matchups like this.

RING RUST

Alatengheili is returning after 17 months out.

REACH CLIFF

Castaneda has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Castaneda's reach is a structural advantage.

WC DEBUT

Castaneda is making their UFC debut at Featherweight, moving up from Bantamweight.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Castaneda
Castaneda
-0.12
Alatengheili
-2.30
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
No edge
Castaneda
0.37
Alatengheili
0.43
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Castaneda
Castaneda
58%
Alatengheili
32%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Castaneda
72
Durable
Alatengheili
96
Ironclad
1 KO lossKO losses0 KO losses
0.33KD / fight0.00
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
High
Castaneda4.95SLpM
+
SLpM2.82Alatengheili
7.8
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
CastanedaOutput Holds Steady+13% R1→R3
AlatengheiliOutput Holds Steady+4% R1→R3
Finish History
Castaneda
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped rate (losses)
25%
1/4
Alatengheili
KO/TKO ×1
Finish rate (wins)
20%
1/5
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/3
Opposition Quality
Castaneda4–4UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–3
Record (5)
-0.9
Str Diff/Min
50%
Finish (W)
Alatengheili5–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
1–3
Record (4)
-3.1
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
CastanedaBantamweightAlatengheili
44th
Striking Differential
6th
53rd
Grappling Threat
66th
58th
Round Win Rate
14th
71st
TD Defense
71st
35th
Durability
91st
43rd
Finishing Rate
6th
Recent Form
Castaneda
Stat
Alatengheili
5.244.95 career
↑0.29
SLpMOutput
↓0.22
2.602.82 career
5.225.07 career
↑0.15
SApMAbsorbed
⚠↑0.92
6.045.12 career
2.003.63 career
⚠↓1.63
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.97
3.003.97 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
—
Stat Breakdown
Striking
CastanedaAlatengheili
Div avg
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.95
2.82
Str. Accuracy
51%
32%
Sig. Absorbed / min
5.07
5.12
Str. Defense
54%
57%
CQ KO Power
0.67
0.29
CastanedaStrike DistributionAlatengheili
By Target
57%
Head
66%
16%
Body
21%
27%
Leg
14%
By Position
88%
Distance
96%
7%
Clinch
1%
5%
Ground
4%
Sig Strikes
Castaneda
67avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
12.9 min
Goes Dist
67%
Alatengheili
38avg landed / fight
Avg Fight Time
13.4 min
Goes Dist
89%
Historical Context
Castaneda — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·9 fights
D
Mark VologdinCatch Weight
M-DEC
R3
Apr '26
135 SS (53%)·91 abs·1 td taken·75s ctrl
L
Chris GutierrezVeteranFW
S-DEC
R3
Apr '25
41 SS (53%)·46 abs·1/1 td·290s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Daniel MarcosBW
U-DEC
R3
Jun '24
60 SS (49%)·98 abs·1/5 td·132s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Kyung Ho KangVeteranCatch Weight
U-DEC
R3
Nov '23
111 SS (62%)·88 abs·3/8 td·138s ctrl
W
Muin GafurovBW
U-DEC
R3
Jun '23
40 SS (45%)·61 abs·3/6 td·256s ctrl·1 kd
L
Daniel SantosCatch Weight
KO/TKO
R24:28
Oct '22
57 SS (54%)·69 abs·3/6 td·2 td taken·124s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Alatengheili — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
L
Da'Mon BlackshearBW
U-DEC
R3
Apr '25
61 SS (32%)·125 abs·0/1 td·18s ctrl
W
Kleydson RodriguesBW
U-DEC
R3
May '24
18 SS (31%)·37 abs·3/4 td·496s ctrl
L
Chris GutierrezBW
U-DEC
R3
Oct '23
38 SS (29%)·110 abs·2/4 td·51s ctrl
W
Chad AnheligerBW
U-DEC
R3
Sep '22
49 SS (37%)·39 abs·2/2 td·83s ctrl
W
Kevin CroomBW
KO/TKO
R10:47
Apr '22
9 SS (53%)·2 abs·1 kd
D
Gustavo LopezBW
U-DEC
R3
Sep '21
36 SS (31%)·44 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·6s ctrl
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Chris GutierrezSame result
L
Castaneda
SD·R3·2025
L
Alatengheili
UD·R3·2023
Matchup·BW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
10/11←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

John Castaneda

“Sexi Mexi”
21-8-19 UFC5mo ago
5'6"ht71"+5"reachSwitch34 yrs
VS·BW·3R
Blue Corner

Alatengheili

“The Mongolian Knight”
17-10-29 UFC1.4yr ago
5'5"ht66"reachOrthodox34 yrs
CQ
Edges
Decision LikelyHigh KO Variance
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingCastanedaDominant
DecisionCastanedaClear edge
GrapplingNo edge
DurabilityNo edge
KO Adv.No edge
Sub Adv.CastanedaSlight edge
Signals
3
RING RUSTAlatengheili is returning after 17 months out.
REACH CLIFFCastaneda has a 5" reach advantage and fights at distance. In a pure range battle, Castaneda's reach is a structural advantage.
WC DEBUTCastaneda is making their UFC debut at Featherweight, moving up from Bantamweight.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Castaneda
Castaneda-0.12
Alatengheili-2.30
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
No edge
Castaneda0.37
Alatengheili0.43
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Castaneda
Castaneda58%
Alatengheili32%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No edge
Castaneda
72Durable
Alatengheili
96Ironclad
Stats
Castaneda
Alatengheili
Striking
4.95SS Landed / min2.82
51%Str Acc32%
5.07SS Absorbed / min5.12
54%Str Def57%
0.44KD / fight0.11
Grappling
1.49TD / min1.74
75%TD Def75%
0.10Sub Att · /15m0.00
—Sub Def100%
Finish History
Castaneda
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
25%
1/4
Alatengheili
KO/TKO ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
20%
1/5
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/3
Castaneda67% distance
Finish 33%Decision 67%
Alatengheili89% distance
Finish 11%Decision 89%
Castaneda 9 UFC fights·Alatengheili 9 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Castaneda
12.9min
Alatengheili
13.4min
Combined Distance Rate
78%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
CastanedaWinAlatengheili
25%
KO
20%
25%
Sub
0%
50%
Dec
80%
4 wins1 KO1 Sub2 Dec
4 Dec1 KO5 wins
CastanedaLossAlatengheili
25%
KO
0%
0%
Sub
0%
75%
Dec
100%
4 losses1 KO3 Dec
3 Dec3 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Castaneda
to knock out
Alatengheili
24Low
Alatengheili
to knock out
Castaneda
34Elevated
Castaneda
to submit
Alatengheili
18Low
Alatengheili
to submit
Castaneda
5Minimal
Recent Form
Castaneda
Stat
Alatengheili
5.24
4.95 career
↑0.29
SLpMOutput
↓0.22
2.60
2.82 career
5.22
5.07 career
↑0.15
SApMAbsorbed
↑0.92
6.04
5.12 career
2.00
3.63 career
↓1.63
TD AttAtt/15m
↓0.97
3.00
3.97 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Castaneda—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·9 fights
D
Mark VologdinCatch Weight Bout
M-DEC · R3 · Apr '26
135 SS (53%)·91 abs·1 td taken·75s ctrl
L
Chris GutierrezVeteranFW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Apr '25
41 SS (53%)·46 abs·1/1 td·290s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Daniel MarcosBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '24
60 SS (49%)·98 abs·1/5 td·132s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Kyung Ho KangVeteranCatch Weight Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '23
111 SS (62%)·88 abs·3/8 td·138s ctrl
W
Muin GafurovBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jun '23
40 SS (45%)·61 abs·3/6 td·256s ctrl·1 kd
L
Daniel SantosCatch Weight Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:28 · Oct '22
57 SS (54%)·69 abs·3/6 td·2 td taken·124s ctrl·1 kd·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Alatengheili—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
L
Da'Mon BlackshearBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Apr '25
61 SS (32%)·125 abs·0/1 td·18s ctrl
W
Kleydson RodriguesBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · May '24
18 SS (31%)·37 abs·3/4 td·496s ctrl
L
Chris GutierrezBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Oct '23
38 SS (29%)·110 abs·2/4 td·51s ctrl
W
Chad AnheligerBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Sep '22
49 SS (37%)·39 abs·2/2 td·83s ctrl
W
Kevin CroomBW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 0:47 · Apr '22
9 SS (53%)·2 abs·1 kd
D
Gustavo LopezBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Sep '21
36 SS (31%)·44 abs·0/1 td·3 td taken·6s ctrl
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Chris GutierrezSame result
L
Castaneda
SD·R3·2025
L
Alatengheili
UD·R3·2023
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X