Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa

SUB

R14:42

Oct '25

7 SS (33%)·5 abs·1 td taken·64s ctrl

U-DEC

Jan '25

42 SS (61%)·42 abs·1/4 td·3 td taken·181s ctrl

SUB

R22:12

Oct '24

34 SS (57%)·17 abs·2/3 td·278s ctrl·1 sub att

SUB

R13:13

Feb '23

3 SS (60%)·1 abs·1 td taken·79s ctrl·3 sub att

Tracked Fights·1 fight

WEdgar Chairez

DWCSU-DECR3Aug 2022

Ochoa — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

U-DEC

Jul '25

26 SS (58%)·22 abs·1/1 td·7 td taken·56s ctrl·2 sub att

KO/TKO

R20:11

Jun '25

30 SS (38%)·9 abs·2 td taken·13s ctrl·1 kd

U-DEC

Nov '24

50 SS (32%)·51 abs·0/1 td·36s ctrl·1 sub att

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Matchup·FLY·3R

13/13←→

Red Corner

Clayton Carpenter

8-24 UFC7mo ago

5'6"ht66"reachOrthodox29 yrs

VS·FLY·3R

Blue Corner

Jose Ochoa

“Kalzifer”

8-2(1 NC)3 UFC9mo ago

5'7"ht67"reachSouthpaw25 yrs

Polymarket

Carpenter 38%63% Ochoa

Elevated Finish Risk

Striking—

Decision—

GrapplingCarpenterClear edge

Durability—

KO Adv.OchoaClear edge

Sub Adv.OchoaSlight edge

Signals

SUBMISSIONBoth fighters hunt submissions on the mat.

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

—

Carpenter+1.09

Ochoa+0.68

CQGrappling

Carpenter

Carpenter0.82

Ochoa0.27

CQDecision

—

Carpenter—

Ochoa—

CQDurability

—

Carpenter—

Ochoa—

CQCardio

—

CarpenterEarly Finisher

OchoaEarly Finisher

CQPace Index

Moderate

Carpenter3.66SLpM

Ochoa3.01SLpM

6.7

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Carpenter

Sub ×2

Finish Rate (Wins)

100%

2/2

Stopped Rate (Losses)

50%

1/2

Ochoa

KO/TKO ×1

Finish Rate (Wins)

100%

1/1

Stopped Rate (Losses)

0/2

Opposition Quality

Carpenter2–2UFC

Ochoa1–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record

1–2n=3

+0.9strike diff/min

1–2n=3

+1.4strike diff/min

Division Percentile Ranks

FLY

CarpenterOchoa

83rdStriking Diff75th

71stGrappling25th

—Round Win Rate—

11thTD Defense37th

71stDurability58th

88thFinish Rate88th

Recent Form

Carpenter

Stat

Ochoa

3.09

3.66 career

↓0.57

SLpMOutput

↑0.00

3.01

3.01 career

2.38

2.57 career

↓0.19

SApMAbsorbed

↑0.00

2.33

2.33 career

3.90

3.49 career

↑0.41

TD AttAtt/15m

—

0.56

1.30 career

↓0.74

SubAtt/15m

↓0.02

1.28

1.30 career

Stat Breakdown

Carpenter

5 fights

| div avg

Ochoa

3 fights

Sig. Strikes / Min

3.66

3.01

Str. Accuracy

53%

37%

Sig. Absorbed / Min

2.57

2.33

Str. Defense

55%

60%

CQ KO Power

—

0.94

Strike Distribution

By Target

60%

Head

37%

14%

Body

31%

26%

Leg

32%

By Position

66%

Distance

85%

Clinch

12%

27%

Ground

Sig Strikes

Carpenter

22avg landed

Filho

Ulanbekov

Rocha

Ronderos

Avg Fight Time

7.5 min

Goes Dist

25%

Ochoa

35avg landed

Almabayev

Durden

Kavanagh

Avg Fight Time

11.7 min

Goes Dist

67%

Historical Context

Carpenter—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·4 fights

SUB · R1 · 4:42 · Oct '25

7 SS (33%)·5 abs·1 td taken·64s ctrl

U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25

42 SS (61%)·42 abs·1/4 td·3 td taken·181s ctrl

SUB · R2 · 2:12 · Oct '24

34 SS (57%)·17 abs·2/3 td·278s ctrl·1 sub att

SUB · R1 · 3:13 · Feb '23

3 SS (60%)·1 abs·1 td taken·79s ctrl·3 sub att

Tracked Fights·1 fight

WEdgar Chairez

DWCSU-DECR3Aug 2022

Ochoa—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

U-DEC · R3 · Jul '25

26 SS (58%)·22 abs·1/1 td·7 td taken·56s ctrl·2 sub att

KO/TKO · R2 · 0:11 · Jun '25

30 SS (38%)·9 abs·2 td taken·13s ctrl·1 kd

U-DEC · R3 · Nov '24

50 SS (32%)·51 abs·0/1 td·36s ctrl·1 sub att

Matchup Analysis·Flyweight Bout

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland13 / 13

←Susurkaev vs Santos→

Red Corner

Clayton Carpenter

8-24 UFCLast7mo ago

Complete Fighter

5'6"ht·66"reach·Orthodoxstance·29age

Flyweight125 lbs

Blue Corner

Jose Ochoa

“Kalzifer”

8-2(1 NC)3 UFCLast9mo ago

Kickboxer

5'7"ht·67"reach·Southpawstance·255yrage

Carpenter 38%

63% Ochoa

Polymarket

OutcomeElevated Finish Risk

Striking—

Decision—

GrapplingCarpenterClear edge

KO Adv.OchoaClear edge

Sub Adv.OchoaSlight edge

Durability—

Signals

1 signal

SUBMISSION

Both fighters hunt submissions on the mat.

CQ Core Edges

CQ Striking Differential

Strikes landed vs absorbed

—

Carpenter

+1.09

Ochoa

+0.68

CQ Grappling Threat

TD threat vs this opponent

Carpenter

0.82

Ochoa

0.27

CQ Decision Advantage

Round Win Rate

—

Carpenter

—

Ochoa

—

CQ Durability

KO exposure history

—

Carpenter

Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight

Ochoa

Unrated0 KO losses0.00 KD/fight

CQ Pace Index

Combined SLpM

Moderate

Carpenter3.66SLpM

SLpM3.01Ochoa

6.7

LowModHighExtreme

CQ Cardio Pattern

Late-fight output

—

CarpenterEarly Finisher

OchoaEarly Finisher

Finish History

Carpenter

Sub ×2

Finish rate (wins)

100%

2/2

Stopped rate (losses)

50%

1/2

Ochoa

KO/TKO ×1

Finish rate (wins)

100%

1/1

Stopped rate (losses)

0/2

Edge & Exposure

Carpenter

EdgeHigh Finisher

Finishes the majority of opponents. Gets the stoppage when ahead on the scorecards.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Ochoa

EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

EdgeStriking Edge

Above-average net striking margin for this division. Wins the exchange battle consistently.

Opposition Quality

Carpenter2–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

1–2

Record (3)

+0.9

Str Diff/Min

100%

Finish (W)

Ochoa1–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record Opps

1–2

Record (3)

+1.4

Str Diff/Min

100%

Finish (W)

Division Percentile Ranks

CarpenterFlyweightOchoa

83rd

Striking Differential

75th

71st

Grappling Threat

25th

—

Round Win Rate

—

11th

TD Defense

37th

71st

Durability

58th

88th

Finishing Rate

88th

Recent Form

Carpenter

Stat

Ochoa

3.093.66 career

↓0.57

SLpMOutput

↑0.00

3.013.01 career

2.382.57 career

↓0.19

SApMAbsorbed

↑0.00

2.332.33 career

3.903.49 career

↑0.41

TD AttAttempts/15m

—

0.561.30 career

↓0.74

Sub AttAttempts/15m

↓0.02

1.281.30 career

Stat Breakdown

Striking

Carpenter5 fightsOchoa3 fights

Div avg

Sig. Strikes / Min

3.66

3.01

Str. Accuracy

53%

37%

Sig. Absorbed / min

2.57

2.33

Str. Defense

55%

60%

CQ KO Power

—

0.94

CarpenterStrike DistributionOchoa

By Target

60%

Head

37%

14%

Body

31%

26%

Leg

32%

By Position

66%

Distance

85%

Clinch

12%

27%

Ground

Sig Strikes

Carpenter

22avg landed / fight

Avg Fight Time

7.5 min

Goes Dist

25%

Ochoa

35avg landed / fight

Avg Fight Time

11.7 min

Goes Dist

67%

Historical Context

Carpenter — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

UFC Fights·4 fights

SUB

R14:42

Oct '25

7 SS (33%)·5 abs·1 td taken·64s ctrl

U-DEC

Jan '25

42 SS (61%)·42 abs·1/4 td·3 td taken·181s ctrl

SUB

R22:12

Oct '24

34 SS (57%)·17 abs·2/3 td·278s ctrl·1 sub att

SUB

R13:13

Feb '23

3 SS (60%)·1 abs·1 td taken·79s ctrl·3 sub att

Tracked Fights·1 fight

WEdgar Chairez

DWCSU-DECR3Aug 2022

Ochoa — Recent Fights

Opponent

MethodRndDate

U-DEC

Jul '25

26 SS (58%)·22 abs·1/1 td·7 td taken·56s ctrl·2 sub att

KO/TKO

R20:11

Jun '25

30 SS (38%)·9 abs·2 td taken·13s ctrl·1 kd

U-DEC

Nov '24

50 SS (32%)·51 abs·0/1 td·36s ctrl·1 sub att

↑UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Matchup·FLY·3R

13/13←→

Red Corner

Clayton Carpenter

8-24 UFC7mo ago

5'6"ht66"reachOrthodox29 yrs

VS·FLY·3R

Blue Corner

Jose Ochoa

“Kalzifer”

8-2(1 NC)3 UFC9mo ago

5'7"ht67"reachSouthpaw25 yrs

Polymarket

Carpenter 38%63% Ochoa

Elevated Finish Risk

Striking—

Decision—

GrapplingCarpenterClear edge

Durability—

KO Adv.OchoaClear edge

Sub Adv.OchoaSlight edge

Signals

SUBMISSIONBoth fighters hunt submissions on the mat.

CQ Core Edges

CQStriking Edge

—

Carpenter+1.09

Ochoa+0.68

CQGrappling

Carpenter

Carpenter0.82

Ochoa0.27

CQDecision

—

Carpenter—

Ochoa—

CQDurability

—

Carpenter—

Ochoa—

CQCardio

—

CarpenterEarly Finisher

OchoaEarly Finisher

CQPace Index

Moderate

Carpenter3.66SLpM

Ochoa3.01SLpM

6.7

LowModHighExtreme

Finish History

Carpenter

Sub ×2

Finish Rate (Wins)

100%

2/2

Stopped Rate (Losses)

50%

1/2

Ochoa

KO/TKO ×1

Finish Rate (Wins)

100%

1/1

Stopped Rate (Losses)

0/2

Opposition Quality

Carpenter2–2UFC

Ochoa1–2UFC

vs. Winning-Record

1–2n=3

+0.9strike diff/min

1–2n=3

+1.4strike diff/min

Division Percentile Ranks

FLY

CarpenterOchoa

83rdStriking Diff75th

71stGrappling25th

—Round Win Rate—

11thTD Defense37th

71stDurability58th

88thFinish Rate88th

Recent Form

Carpenter

Stat

Ochoa

3.09

3.66 career

↓0.57

SLpMOutput

↑0.00

3.01

3.01 career

2.38

2.57 career

↓0.19

SApMAbsorbed

↑0.00

2.33

2.33 career

3.90

3.49 career

↑0.41

TD AttAtt/15m

—

0.56

1.30 career

↓0.74

SubAtt/15m

↓0.02

1.28

1.30 career

Stat Breakdown

Carpenter

5 fights

| div avg

Ochoa

3 fights

Sig. Strikes / Min

3.66

3.01

Str. Accuracy

53%

37%

Sig. Absorbed / Min

2.57

2.33

Str. Defense

55%

60%

CQ KO Power

—

0.94

Strike Distribution

By Target

60%

Head

37%

14%

Body

31%

26%

Leg

32%

By Position

66%

Distance

85%

Clinch

12%

27%

Ground

Sig Strikes

Carpenter

22avg landed

Filho

Ulanbekov

Rocha

Ronderos

Avg Fight Time

7.5 min

Goes Dist

25%

Ochoa

35avg landed

Almabayev

Durden

Kavanagh

Avg Fight Time

11.7 min

Goes Dist

67%

Historical Context

Carpenter—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

UFC Fights·4 fights

SUB · R1 · 4:42 · Oct '25

7 SS (33%)·5 abs·1 td taken·64s ctrl

U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25

42 SS (61%)·42 abs·1/4 td·3 td taken·181s ctrl

SUB · R2 · 2:12 · Oct '24

34 SS (57%)·17 abs·2/3 td·278s ctrl·1 sub att

SUB · R1 · 3:13 · Feb '23

3 SS (60%)·1 abs·1 td taken·79s ctrl·3 sub att

Tracked Fights·1 fight

WEdgar Chairez

DWCSU-DECR3Aug 2022

Ochoa—Recent Fights

OpponentMethodRndDate

U-DEC · R3 · Jul '25

26 SS (58%)·22 abs·1/1 td·7 td taken·56s ctrl·2 sub att

KO/TKO · R2 · 0:11 · Jun '25

30 SS (38%)·9 abs·2 td taken·13s ctrl·1 kd

U-DEC · R3 · Nov '24

50 SS (32%)·51 abs·0/1 td·36s ctrl·1 sub att