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Matchup Analysis·Bantamweight
↑UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos5 / 11
←Amaya vs BlackBellato vs Edwards→
Red Corner

Brady Hiestand

“Bam Bam”
9-24 UFCLast2yr ago
Wrestler
Inactive
5'8"ht·71"+3"reach·Orthodoxstance·274yrage
VS
Bantamweight135 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Rinya Nakamura

“Hybred”
10-15 UFCLast1.1yr ago
Wrestler
5'7"ht·68"reach·Southpawstance·31age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNakamuraDominant
DecisionNakamuraSlight edge
GrapplingNakamuraDominant
KO Adv.NakamuraDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
DurabilityNo data
Signals
2 signals
SUBMISSION

Nakamura actively hunts submissions on the ground.

RING RUST

Hiestand is returning after 27 months out.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Nakamura
Hiestand
-1.05
Nakamura
+1.55
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Nakamura
Hiestand
0.00
Nakamura
1.50
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
Nakamura
Hiestand
67%
Nakamura
82%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
—
Hiestand
Unrated0 KO losses0.75 KD/fight
Nakamura
Unrated0 KO losses0.20 KD/fight
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Hiestand2.70SLpM
+
SLpM3.27Nakamura
6.0
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
Hiestand
HiestandOutput Builds Late+40% R1→R3
NakamuraOutput Drops Late-28% R1→R3
Finish History
Hiestand
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
67%
2/3
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/1
Nakamura
KO/TKO ×2
Finish rate (wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped rate (losses)
0%
0/1
Edge & Exposure
Hiestand
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

Nakamura
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

EdgeStriking Dominant

Net striking margin is among the best in this division. Consistently lands more than absorbed.

Division Percentile Ranks
HiestandBantamweightNakamura
23rd
Striking Differential
84th
96th
Grappling Threat
93rd
75th
Round Win Rate
93rd
12th
TD Defense
99th
56th
Durability
72nd
72nd
Finishing Rate
43rd
Recent Form
Hiestand
Stat
Nakamura
2.092.70 career
↓0.61
SLpMOutput
↓0.66
2.613.27 career
2.693.75 career
↓1.06
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.04
1.681.72 career
10.1910.41 career
↓0.22
TD AttAttempts/15m
↓0.65
1.932.58 career
1.461.10 career
↑0.36
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.92
0.481.40 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Hiestand50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Nakamura60% distance
Finish 40%Decision 60%
Hiestand 4 UFC fights·Nakamura 5 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Hiestand
14.1min
Nakamura
9.3min
Combined Distance Rate
56%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
HiestandTO KNOCK OUTNakamura
28
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins1
Total UFC wins3
Nakamura's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses1
NakamuraTO KNOCK OUTHiestand
53
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins2
Total UFC wins4
Hiestand's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses0
Total UFC losses1
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
HiestandTO SUBMITNakamura
26
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins3
Nakamura's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses1
NakamuraTO SUBMITHiestand
20
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins4
Hiestand's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses1
HiestandWin MethodNakamura
33%
KO / TKO
50%
33%
Submission
0%
33%
Decision
50%
3 UFC wins · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 1 Dec4 UFC wins · 2 KO · 2 Dec
Hiestand
Loss Method
Nakamura
0%
KO / TKO
0%
0%
Submission
0%
100%
Decision
100%
1 UFC loss · 1 Dec1 UFC loss · 1 Dec
Hiestand2 stoppages · 1 KO · 1 Sub
R1
0
R2
0
R3
2
R1R2R3
KO Win
Sub Win
All stoppages
WSubGarrett ArmfieldR3 · 1:52
WKOBatgerel DanaaR3 · 4:21
Nakamura2 stoppages · 2 KO
R1
2
R2
0
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
All stoppages
WKONathan FletcherR1 · 1:02
WKOToshiomi KazamaR1 · 0:33
Historical Context
Hiestand — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Garrett ArmfieldBW
SUB
R31:52
Jun '24
22 SS (44%)·49 abs·6/13 td·336s ctrl·1 kd taken·3 sub att
W
Batgerel DanaaBW
KO/TKO
R34:21
Apr '23
45 SS (56%)·41 abs·3/7 td·1 td taken·249s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Fernie GarciaBW
U-DEC
R3
Nov '22
19 SS (56%)·21 abs·3/8 td·1 td taken·554s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Ricky TurciosBW
S-DEC
R3
Aug '21
66 SS (49%)·100 abs·6/11 td·2 td taken·460s ctrl·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Nakamura — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
W
Nathan FletcherBW
KO/TKO
R11:02
Aug '25
12 SS (63%)·3 abs·1 kd
L
Muin GafurovBW
U-DEC
R3
Jan '25
31 SS (42%)·37 abs·0/1 td·101s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att
W
Carlos VeraBW
U-DEC
R3
Feb '24
38 SS (54%)·12 abs·3/3 td·783s ctrl
W
Fernie GarciaBW
U-DEC
R3
Aug '23
36 SS (63%)·15 abs·4/4 td·566s ctrl·3 sub att
W
Toshiomi KazamaBW
KO/TKO
R10:33
Feb '23
11 SS (44%)·4 abs·2 kd
Tracked Fights·2 fights
WShohei Nose
Road to UFCKO/TKOR1Oct 2022
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Fernie GarciaSame result
W
Hiestand
UD·R3·2022
W
Nakamura
UD·R3·2023
Matchup·BW·3R
↑UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
5/11←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Brady Hiestand

“Bam Bam”
9-24 UFC2yr ago
5'8"ht71"+3"reachOrthodox27 yrs
VS·BW·3R
Blue Corner

Rinya Nakamura

“Hybred”
10-15 UFC1.1yr ago
5'7"ht68"reachSouthpaw31 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingNakamuraDominant
DecisionNakamuraSlight edge
GrapplingNakamuraDominant
DurabilityNo data
KO Adv.NakamuraDominant
Sub Adv.No edge
Signals
1
RING RUSTHiestand is returning after 27 months out.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Nakamura
Hiestand-1.05
Nakamura+1.55
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Nakamura
Hiestand0.00
Nakamura1.50
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
Nakamura
Hiestand67%
Nakamura82%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
No data
Hiestand
Unrated0 KO losses0.75 KD/fight
Nakamura
Unrated0 KO losses0.20 KD/fight
Stats
Hiestand
Nakamura
Striking
2.70SS Landed / min3.27
50%Str Acc52%
3.75SS Absorbed / min1.72
51%Str Def63%
0.00KD / fight0.60
Grappling
4.80TD / min2.58
42%TD Def100%
1.10Sub Att · /15m1.40
100%Sub Def100%
Finish History
Hiestand
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
67%
2/3
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/1
Nakamura
KO/TKO ×2
Finish Rate (Wins)
50%
2/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
0%
0/1
Hiestand50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Nakamura60% distance
Finish 40%Decision 60%
Hiestand 4 UFC fights·Nakamura 5 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Hiestand
14.1min
Nakamura
9.3min
Combined Distance Rate
56%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
HiestandWinNakamura
33%
KO
50%
33%
Sub
0%
33%
Dec
50%
3 wins1 KO1 Sub1 Dec
2 Dec2 KO4 wins
HiestandLossNakamura
0%
KO
0%
0%
Sub
0%
100%
Dec
100%
1 loss1 Dec
1 Dec1 loss
CQ Finish Risk
Hiestand
to knock out
Nakamura
28Elevated
Nakamura
to knock out
Hiestand
53High
Hiestand
to submit
Nakamura
26Elevated
Nakamura
to submit
Hiestand
20Low
Recent Form
Hiestand
Stat
Nakamura
2.09
2.70 career
↓0.61
SLpMOutput
↓0.66
2.61
3.27 career
2.69
3.75 career
↓1.06
SApMAbsorbed
↓0.04
1.68
1.72 career
10.19
10.41 career
↓0.22
TD AttAtt/15m
↓0.65
1.93
2.58 career
1.46
1.10 career
↑0.36
SubAtt/15m
↓0.92
0.48
1.40 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Hiestand—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Garrett ArmfieldBW Bout
SUB · R3 · 1:52 · Jun '24
22 SS (44%)·49 abs·6/13 td·336s ctrl·1 kd taken·3 sub att
W
Batgerel DanaaBW Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 4:21 · Apr '23
45 SS (56%)·41 abs·3/7 td·1 td taken·249s ctrl·1 kd taken
W
Fernie GarciaBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '22
19 SS (56%)·21 abs·3/8 td·1 td taken·554s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Ricky TurciosBW Bout
S-DEC · R3 · Aug '21
66 SS (49%)·100 abs·6/11 td·2 td taken·460s ctrl·1 kd taken
View full fight log →
Nakamura—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·5 fights
W
Nathan FletcherBW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 1:02 · Aug '25
12 SS (63%)·3 abs·1 kd
L
Muin GafurovBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Jan '25
31 SS (42%)·37 abs·0/1 td·101s ctrl·1 kd taken·1 sub att
W
Carlos VeraBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Feb '24
38 SS (54%)·12 abs·3/3 td·783s ctrl
W
Fernie GarciaBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Aug '23
36 SS (63%)·15 abs·4/4 td·566s ctrl·3 sub att
W
Toshiomi KazamaBW Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 0:33 · Feb '23
11 SS (44%)·4 abs·2 kd
Tracked Fights·2 fights
WShohei Nose
Road to UFCKO/TKOR1Oct 2022
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Fernie GarciaSame result
W
Hiestand
UD·R3·2022
W
Nakamura
UD·R3·2023
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X